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Author Topic: PA/WI/OH-CBS/YouGov: Tie in PA, Feingold +3, Portman +11  (Read 1184 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: October 09, 2016, 08:50:38 am »

Pennsylvania
42% Pat Toomey (R, inc.)
42% Katie McGinty (D)

Wisconsin
45% Russ Feingold (D)
42% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)

Ohio
49% Rob Portman (R, inc.)
38% Ted Strickland (D)

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2016, 10:32:01 am »

Seems like the actual horserace polling was done before assaultgate, so useless, but I have to say the Feingold number is pretty pathetic.
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2016, 11:09:07 am »

Good numbers for the GOP. Hopefully Trump can find some way to stop the bleeding at least enough that some of our embattled GOP senators can survive.
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2016, 11:11:01 am »

It's funny, that's Strickland's best number in a while.
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2016, 11:12:02 am »

It's funny, that's Strickland's best number in a while.
CBS has always had good Democratic numbers in OH
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Jimmie
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2016, 11:17:16 am »

Wow, lower margin then I would expect for Feingold, but I think Feingold wins easily.

You know what would be very nice.. a non-internal MO Senate poll! Hopefully there is one before election day.
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2016, 11:37:14 am »

I have a gut feeling that Clinton is going to win Wisconsin by around 5 and Feingold will win by around 6-7.
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2016, 11:42:05 am »

No way Feingold is only up 3.
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2016, 12:28:36 pm »

This poll has 91% White in WI which is oversampling White Voters by quite a bit I think in WI. Unless all White voters include Hispanics, this has errors. Another issue is Male 51% which is not representative - So female voters who go more for Feingold need to represented more.

In the end going through the crosstabs I see Feingold tied among White Voters & across all age groups he is strong including the 45-64 or 65+ age group where he is tied or 1-2% odd here n there which is very strong.

I think Feingold will get a 5-6% margin in the end in a normal election. Why on earth in Katie Mcginty doing better among young voters than Russ? I know Sanders has campaigned 3-4 times in 2 weeks for Katie, but I think Warren & Sanders also need to put their weight behind Russ to secure that seat in the next 15 days.

Feingold really needs to do a better among young voters, have a higher margin there!
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2016, 01:43:37 pm »

Wisconsin poll is a big outlier.
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2016, 01:56:26 pm »

This poll has 91% White in WI which is oversampling White Voters by quite a bit I think in WI. Unless all White voters include Hispanics, this has errors. Another issue is Male 51% which is not representative - So female voters who go more for Feingold need to represented more.

In the end going through the crosstabs I see Feingold tied among White Voters & across all age groups he is strong including the 45-64 or 65+ age group where he is tied or 1-2% odd here n there which is very strong.

I think Feingold will get a 5-6% margin in the end in a normal election. Why on earth in Katie Mcginty doing better among young voters than Russ? I know Sanders has campaigned 3-4 times in 2 weeks for Katie, but I think Warren & Sanders also need to put their weight behind Russ to secure that seat in the next 15 days.

Feingold really needs to do a better among young voters, have a higher margin there!

Sanders and Warren did 4 different events for Clinton/Feingold this week (2 in Madison, 1 in Milwaukee, 1 in Green Bay)
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2016, 03:46:36 pm »

Johnson has been abandoned by RSCC and the Koch brothers. That says more about the state of the race than any poll.
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2016, 05:11:17 pm »

Seems like the actual horserace polling was done before assaultgate, so useless, but I have to say the Feingold number is pretty pathetic.

Regarding Wisconsin, outliers are a thing Tongue
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2016, 05:13:12 pm »

The same poll showed Clinton only up 4 in Wisconsin, so probably a bad sample.
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2016, 06:29:45 pm »

I have a gut feeling that Clinton is going to win Wisconsin by around 5 and Feingold will win by around 6-7.

Lol, Clinton is going to win Wisconsin by at least 15.  Trump's going to probably lose this election by 20 points nationally.
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2016, 07:14:27 pm »

Let's keep in mind that this is the last set of polls from before Access Hollywood. We really have no idea what the reaction will be in downballot races.
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2016, 07:20:58 pm »

Let's keep in mind that this is the last set of polls from before Access Hollywood. We really have no idea what the reaction will be in downballot races.

And I can't see any scenario where the races would be become better for Republicans after the tape.
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2016, 09:46:51 pm »

Let's keep in mind that this is the last set of polls from before Access Hollywood. We really have no idea what the reaction will be in downballot races.

And I can't see any scenario where the races would be become better for Republicans after the tape.

Yeah, GOP could lose all the Senate seats in competitive races except Ohio, but I don't really know at this point.

All I can say is that no matter who wins (and I'm pretty darn sure it's Clinton), America is doomed, but its fate was sealed long ago.
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« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2016, 05:36:24 am »

This poll has 91% White in WI which is oversampling White Voters by quite a bit I think in WI. Unless all White voters include Hispanics, this has errors. Another issue is Male 51% which is not representative - So female voters who go more for Feingold need to represented more.

In the end going through the crosstabs I see Feingold tied among White Voters & across all age groups he is strong including the 45-64 or 65+ age group where he is tied or 1-2% odd here n there which is very strong.

I think Feingold will get a 5-6% margin in the end in a normal election. Why on earth in Katie Mcginty doing better among young voters than Russ? I know Sanders has campaigned 3-4 times in 2 weeks for Katie, but I think Warren & Sanders also need to put their weight behind Russ to secure that seat in the next 15 days.

Feingold really needs to do a better among young voters, have a higher margin there!

Sanders and Warren did 4 different events for Clinton/Feingold this week (2 in Madison, 1 in Milwaukee, 1 in Green Bay)

Sanders did 1 rally for Feingold I think (not sure? But I saw that video). I saw 4 videos of Sanders with Katie in PA at 4 different times. I think they are doing their best to get Katie elected but Feingold should be doing a little better among younger voters & this election will be over in WI!
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