Prediction: The 3 most shocking states on election night
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  Prediction: The 3 most shocking states on election night
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Author Topic: Prediction: The 3 most shocking states on election night  (Read 10317 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: October 10, 2016, 01:32:40 PM »

In 2008, there were several stunners: Obama winning Indiana, NE02, and NC. Indiana was especially stunning given that it had not gone to a Democrat since LBJ 1964, and it was the only state that Nate Silver got wrong.

Given the current state of the race and Trump's implosion, I think there are a few contenders, all in favor of Hillary.

1. Alaska: Johnson is getting close to 20% here, with almost all his votes coming from otherwise Trump voters. The latest poll showed Trump leading by just 4.

2. Montana: Her husband won it in 1992 due to Perot, and in 2008 Obama lost it by just 2.2% due to Ron Paul being a write-in candidate that year. Johnson could cripple Trump here.

3. Utah: the last poll had Trump leading comfortably by around 10%, but that was before the devastating tapes, which will especially offend the religious Mormons. And if Johnson and McMullin's numbers go up, that will only help Hillary.

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swf541
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2016, 01:33:45 PM »

Alaska, Georgia (or Arizona) and Texas
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2016, 01:34:57 PM »

I agree with Alaska and Utah. I think the margin in Texas could also be a shocker, Trump might only win 1-2%.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2016, 01:43:54 PM »

Alaska would be a shock because Hillary is supposedly a bad fit for the state, so you have to wonder what means for Democrats' chances in the future.

If Hillary wins Utah, and Republicans continue to spiral down the path of bigotry and xenophobia, you will also have to wonder if Utah might pull a reverse WV. It's not extremely likely, but again, a shock like that will have people thinking.

If Hillary wins Texas, that's what you call a mandate.
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HisGrace
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2016, 01:46:45 PM »

Georgia, Missouri, and Arizona are all good candidates. SC, Montana, Utah and Mississippi are candidates too. Texas is the absolute floor.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2016, 01:48:33 PM »

Things are not going well in AK right now.  They might also be turned off to Trump.  But Johnson might be pulling from Hillary as well.
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LLR
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2016, 01:53:04 PM »

South Carolina: will come home for Hillary
New Jersey: will be surprisingly close
Iowa: will vote for Hillary
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adrac
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2016, 01:58:05 PM »

Utah and Alaska are the obvious choices for me, plus any of the other states people have mentioned. I'm really curious to see what the numbers are in Utah on election day, I don't think anyone will be able to predict with confidence.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2016, 01:59:48 PM »

I feel like Virginia will be even a bigger win for Hillary than most people expect, and Iowa and Ohio will be comfortably in here column.  Arizona will vote Democrat for the first time in twenty years, and Georgia will be a nail-biter.  Hillary will break 60% in NJ, CT, MA, WA and maybe IL.  
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Nym90
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2016, 01:59:53 PM »

Texas is definitely not out of the question to vote for Clinton. Every poll there has had Trump's lead in single digits for a while. If Hispanic turnout is large, and there is additional movement against Trump, it could happen. Even if Trump barely pulls through, having Texas be too close to call for several hours after polls close would be an embarrassment for the GOP.

Alaska is definitely also possible if things really go south for Trump, though don't forget that Alaska polling is awful.

Utah, maybe as the LDS may be more repulsed than most by Trump's behavior, though it's awfully Republican. Even if Trump wins it by 15, that's a horrible performance for a Republican there.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2016, 02:21:25 PM »

South Dakota, ME-2 (most Americans aren't aware that Trump is well positioned to win there, getting an extra EV), and Utah. Honorable mention to OH if it votes against the winner, and NM/AK if Johnson places second in them.
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reidmill
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« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2016, 02:21:44 PM »

Alaska, Arizona, Georgia.

All go to Clinton.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2016, 02:23:26 PM »

If anyone had told you two years ago that there was a realistic possibility that the Democratic nominee could win Utah, what would you have said?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2016, 02:24:21 PM »

Utah and Kansas
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2016, 02:27:49 PM »

If anyone had told you two years ago that there was a realistic possibility that the Democratic nominee could win Utah, what would you have said?

That applies for just about everything in this election.
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Fitzgerald
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2016, 02:32:29 PM »

Going to agree with OP: Alaska, Montana (I live in hope), and Utah. Trump is absolutely abhorred in the Mountain West, and Alaska is more or less just us except even more libertarian.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2016, 02:33:20 PM »

PA: this state will be fairly close. Up until Friday I thought it was within Trump's grasp and after last night I think it can be again if he keeps on the straight and narrow.

AZ: If Trump's numbers among Mormons and women continue to plummet and Hispanic turnout is high, it'd be interesting to see if Hillary can truly put it into play in the last week.

TX: I think Trump will underperform here. He'll still win it comfortably but it won't be good.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2016, 02:38:47 PM »

North Dakota
South Dakota
Montana

The realignment!
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2016, 02:45:13 PM »


Iowa-Trends R despite the overall popular vote trending significantly D.
Missouri-Hillary Clinton will win this state in what is a surprise to many.
Maine-Despite many suggesting this state will trend R, it actually trends D slightly in the end.

Bonus- Many on Atlas are surprised by the high amount of ticket splitting on election night.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2016, 02:53:24 PM »

South Carolina, Texas, Utah.
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Figueira
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« Reply #20 on: October 10, 2016, 03:01:20 PM »

Hard to really say--for all we know Clinton could be outpolling Trump in Alaska on election day and then she could lose it.

However, I'll go with Alaska, South Carolina, and Indiana (again).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: October 10, 2016, 03:02:17 PM »

For sake of "Bold predictions" I'll ignore AZ and GA that realistically are likely tossups, and the former maybe even with a slight Clinton edge at this point and move down the next tier.

SC, MO, and AK flip Democrat for the Presidential Election.

Country club Republicans in the former, suburban St Louis/KC voters and depressed turnout in the Southern Bible Belt part of MO, and AK because I just have that hunch and combined with narrowing polling numbers and as a fellow Northwestern State they have an ornery tradition and MatSu evangelicals will stay home or vote Libertarian.

I still don't buy UT not going Republican or for a 3rd Party candidate, until I see it happen, although regardless Republican margins will drop dramatically.

I can see KS and TX being within low single digits, but will still stay Republican.

IN--- we don't really have a good grasp on what's going on at the ground level, combined with their Robocall polling ban, and I think Pence will be able to keep the state narrowly Republican.
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ursulahx
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« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2016, 03:42:16 PM »

Alaska, Missouri, Utah.

(For the sake of this discussion, I'm assuming that it would not be a shock if Georgia and Arizona flip, nor if Iowa and Ohio stay in the D column.)
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andrew_c
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« Reply #23 on: October 10, 2016, 04:42:09 PM »

Alaska, Texas, Utah
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2016, 04:44:14 PM »

IA to thw rifht of AZ. Calling it now
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