Prediction: The 3 most shocking states on election night

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That the map is the 2012 map minus North Carolina and NE-02, despite a 8-point Hillary victory in the popular vote.  Very little movement in the EC.

[Arbitrage1980]

That the map is the 2012 map minus North Carolina and NE-02, despite a 8-point Hillary victory in the popular vote.  Very little movement in the EC.

So Hillary gets 348 electoral votes and 8% margin in popular vote. Not too crazy, but given the context of this election, unlikely.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Indiana- Mike Pence, its governor, is Trump's running mate so it would be a big shock if it goes for the Democrats.
Alaska- It's a solid red state, so it turning blue would be shocking.
Utah- Seems very unlikely to me, but if it goes Democrat it'll be the biggest shocker, probably because a 3rd party will have to perform very well too.

[VPH]

Alaska, Utah, Texas

[GeorgiaModerate]

Indiana- Mike Pence, its governor, is Trump's running mate so it would be a big shock if it goes for the Democrats.
Alaska- It's a solid red state, so it turning blue would be shocking.
Utah- Seems very unlikely to me, but if it goes Democrat it'll be the biggest shocker, probably because a 3rd party will have to perform very well too.

I think Utah's still a stretch, but at this point something like this isn't completely unrealistic, especially if local Mormon politicians choose to endorse McMullin:

Clinton 34
Trump 31
McMullin 20
Johnson 13
Others 2

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Whatever three states go for Gary "Aleppo" Johnson?

But seriously:

1. AZ to left of IA
2. GA to the left of IA
3. TX to the left of MO

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Utah is bound to be all over the place. If McMullin wasn't on the ballot, there would be a lot less uncertainty there. Trump is likely to bomb there following the Deseret News/LDS unendorsing him along with major UT Pols. It will be interesting to see if any of them (including Romney) endorse anyone. Calling for a Pence write in doesn't count and is a wimpy move made by spineless Vichy worms trying not to look like spineless Vichy worms. Johnson and McMullin could both win counties along with Hillary. If any number of pols in Utah endorse a candidate (I'm guessing that if a large number of politicians endorse someone, the Church will have had some say as well), that candidate would probably favored to take the state.

Idaho: There's not much polling and the large Mormon minority (25% of the state) could swing the election one way or another. McMullin is on the ballot. Trump will probably still win due to the western part (especially the northeastern part), but it could be close. Clinton could easily win Ada County (Boise). Madison County voted 93% for Romney in 2012 and is home to BYU-Idaho. That will be a fun county to watch. Again, it all boils down to what the Mormons do. If no real endorsements are made, it will be wild.

Montana if only because we haven't gotten any polling as of late. As some people have mentioned, Montana was surprisingly close in 2008. Johnson seems like a decent fit for a good portion of the population (it was his second best state in 2012). I doubt that Johnson could win, but Hillary could win with a result in the low 40's.

[Xing]

I think Arizona going for Hillary would be a shock to most, but perhaps it wouldn't be as shocking to those of us who've been following this election closely (similar to how Indiana for Obama wasn't nearly as shocking for people who were following the race.) I could see Alaska, Missouri, and South Carolina being shockers or simply shockingly close. Also, watch South Dakota to see if turnout among Happy Farmers is high.

[PresidentTRUMP]

For the D's: Utah, Arizona or Georgia

For the R'S: Michigan, Wisconsin or PA

[PeteB]

Hard to say at this point, but I will give it a shot:

1. UT - not sure if Clinton or Johnson win it but I predict that it won't be Trump. Unless McMullin gets a direct LDS endorsement, he will just play spoiler.

2. PA - Trump will overperform here, although whether he can outright win it remains to be seen. But it will be much closer than expected.

3. NM - Johnson could actually be in play here. In fact any one of the three could win it, although I still think Clinton will. But it will be close.

[ProudModerate2]

For Democrats : Arizona, Georgia and Alaska.

[Mallow]

North Carolina and Minnesota would be a fun one to watch... what if NC votes to the left of MN?

[Arbitrage1980]

Whatever three states go for Gary "Aleppo" Johnson?

But seriously:

1. AZ to left of IA
2. GA to the left of IA
3. TX to the left of MO

You really nailed this.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This was right after those tapes, right?  That's the only way we could have all thought it was going to be a Hillary landslide.

[°Leprechaun]

For the D's: Utah, Arizona or Georgia

For the R'S: Michigan, Wisconsin or PA

Hmmm... the three states Trump won that were a surprise, MI, WI, & PA
Of course, many were surprised that Trump even won and will be equally surprised when (or if?) he wins in 2020.
Some people never learn.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think it will be MI, PA, and WI.

[JoshPA]

In 2008, there were several stunners: Obama winning Indiana, NE02, and NC. Indiana was especially stunning given that it had not gone to a Democrat since LBJ 1964, and it was the only state that Nate Silver got wrong.

Given the current state of the race and Trump's implosion, I think there are a few contenders, all in favor of Hillary.

1. Alaska: Johnson is getting close to 20% here, with almost all his votes coming from otherwise Trump voters. The latest poll showed Trump leading by just 4.

2. Montana: Her husband won it in 1992 due to Perot, and in 2008 Obama lost it by just 2.2% due to Ron Paul being a write-in candidate that year. Johnson could cripple Trump here.

3. Utah: the last poll had Trump leading comfortably by around 10%, but that was before the devastating tapes, which will especially offend the religious Mormons. And if Johnson and McMullin's numbers go up, that will only help Hillary.

Johnson did worse then he could have in my opinion utah i was expecting that mcullin came second with trump first and he won a county at the very leasts.

[Arbitrage1980]

Wow. Amazing how we were all so off base.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Wow. Amazing how we were all so off base.

except this one.

I think it will be MI, PA, and WI.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Wow. Amazing how we were all so off base.

except this one.

I think it will be MI, PA, and WI.

Look at the date.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Wow. Amazing how we were all so off base.

except this one.

I think it will be MI, PA, and WI.

Look at the date.

I read that as 2016

[Yellowhammer]

Alaska, Arizona, Georgia.

All go to Clinton.

This didn't age well

[Stranger in a strange land]

This was right after those tapes, right?  That's the only way we could have all thought it was going to be a Hillary landslide.

Yes, the Access Hollywood Tape dropped on October 7.

[Da2017]

Michigan,Pennsylvania,and Wisconsin.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I must be the only one that was shocked at Trump winning NC by 4 points. I knew he could win of course but I thought it would be an Obama 2008 margin, or a Romney 2012 at most.