Prediction: The 3 most shocking states on election night

[Arbitrage1980]

In 2008, there were several stunners: Obama winning Indiana, NE02, and NC. Indiana was especially stunning given that it had not gone to a Democrat since LBJ 1964, and it was the only state that Nate Silver got wrong.

Given the current state of the race and Trump's implosion, I think there are a few contenders, all in favor of Hillary.

1. Alaska: Johnson is getting close to 20% here, with almost all his votes coming from otherwise Trump voters. The latest poll showed Trump leading by just 4.

2. Montana: Her husband won it in 1992 due to Perot, and in 2008 Obama lost it by just 2.2% due to Ron Paul being a write-in candidate that year. Johnson could cripple Trump here.

3. Utah: the last poll had Trump leading comfortably by around 10%, but that was before the devastating tapes, which will especially offend the religious Mormons. And if Johnson and McMullin's numbers go up, that will only help Hillary.

[Arbitrage1980]

That the map is the 2012 map minus North Carolina and NE-02, despite a 8-point Hillary victory in the popular vote.  Very little movement in the EC.

So Hillary gets 348 electoral votes and 8% margin in popular vote. Not too crazy, but given the context of this election, unlikely.

[Arbitrage1980]

Whatever three states go for Gary "Aleppo" Johnson?

But seriously:

1. AZ to left of IA
2. GA to the left of IA
3. TX to the left of MO

You really nailed this.

[Arbitrage1980]

Wow. Amazing how we were all so off base.

[Arbitrage1980]

I must be the only one that was shocked at Trump winning NC by 4 points. I knew he could win of course but I thought it would be an Obama 2008 margin, or a Romney 2012 at most.

I too was surprised by his NC margin, given that he got destroyed in Charlotte and the Research Triangle. No idea where all those votes came from.

[Arbitrage1980]

Alaska, Arizona, Georgia.

All go to Clinton.

This didn't age well

To be fair, Arizona and Georgia were too close for comfort.

[Arbitrage1980]

I must be the only one that was shocked at Trump winning NC by 4 points. I knew he could win of course but I thought it would be an Obama 2008 margin, or a Romney 2012 at most.

I too was surprised by his NC margin, given that he got destroyed in Charlotte and the Research Triangle. No idea where all those votes came from.

People majorly underestimate the population outside Raleigh and Charlotte / overestimate the cities' population. There's actually a very substantial rural and suburban Republican population...Charlotte lacks Democratic suburbs like Virginia

Good point. The 7 biggest counties in NC accounted for 39% of the total votes in the state. In those counties, Hillary beat Trump by roughly 400K votes. In the remaining counties, Trump beat Hillary by 570K votes, resulting in him winning the state by 170K votes.