PRRI/The Atlantic Survey Clinton +11

[SunSt0rm]

Clinton 49%
Trump 38%

10/5-10/9

Gender gap is enormous
Men Trump +11
Women Clinton +33

http://www.prri.org/research/prri-atlantic-october-11-2016-presidential-election-horserace-clinton-trump/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

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Yikes.

[Gass3268]

This was a 43-43 tie two weeks ago.

[ursulahx]

Most likely an outlier (at this stage), but encouraging nonetheless.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Most likely an outlier (at this stage), but encouraging nonetheless.

Is it?

[Gass3268]

Most likely an outlier (at this stage), but encouraging nonetheless.

If anything this confirms the NBC/WSJ poll isn't an outlier.

[rafta_rafta]

What worries me is how eagerly men wave off these deplorable assault comments by Trump.

That would be a career ending gaffe in even developing countries.

[Rand]

[mark_twain]

Great poll!

This looks like the start of a tidal wave!

[mark_twain]

The last result, taken from 9/28 to 10/2, was Clinton +6, making this is a +5 improvement.

Excellent!

[Crumpets]

It looks like 538 hasn't added this one yet either. No +14 and now no +11?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Makes sense why Paul Ryan won't campaign with Trump and why the republicans are extremely worried.

Democrats may as well win the House, it would be really nice to see America enjoying the same progressive and social programs we have in Europe.  

It's won't if it means we get Texit in a decade though, huh?

[afleitch]

Only half of the poll was taken after the tape leak.

[Gass3268]

It looks like 538 hasn't added this one yet either. No +14 and now no +11?

It's still early in the morning, it'll be added. The NBC/WSJ poll was added as Clinton +12, but wasn't weighted that hevily as they only had around 450 respondents.

[pbrower2a]

Most likely an outlier (at this stage), but encouraging nonetheless.

It corroborates the recent double-digit lead in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

When I see what looks like an outlier I first suspect a mathematical error such as a slipped digit or a bad sample. When I see corroborating outliers  I start to look for causes.

The Republican nominee made a thinly-veiled threat to prosecute his opponent with the implication that she would be in prison as a result. He called his opponent "the Devil", an inappropriate remark. He claimed that the United States would be wise to fight ISIS with Russia and with Butcher Assad, who have both chosen to go after remnants of those who wanted a democratic Syria and oppose both the Assad regime and ISIS which both have shown contempt for democracy.  That's simply in the last debate. Then come the revelations of some vile sexual misconduct.

One might expect this in a country in which democracy is a novelty  but in which some populist shows his populist credentials by threatening an old elite. That is how Robert Mugabe and Hugo Chavez operated.  

Donald Trump is getting scary, and the more sophisticated people are or the further they are from fitting the 'undereducated white person' demographic and culture the more they dislike him. If one is an ethnic, sexual, or religious minority of practically any kind (except white fundamentalist-Protestant male) or has the level of education characteristic of a college degree, then one has cause to dread a Trump presidency.  

You may not be as aware of recent events as people in America as we who live here know. Donald Trump is not a conventional conservative. His foreign policy is as far from the mainstream as that that the Nixon campaign pinned on George McGovern in 1972. Obama foreign policy is very close to what Ronald Reagan got away with, and Hillary Clinton offers more of the same. Such foreign policy gives flexibility in dealing with tyrants without giving a pretext for kissing up to them.

The Clinton campaign shows strong evidence of showing the opponent as a capricious and dangerous radical. Media show him as a horrible person. Grabbing the crotches of women without the consent of those women is sexual assault.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thanks to this, RCP Average is now at +6.5 for Clinton.

[Sir Mohamed]

A little off; she’s not ahead by eleven points though she actually should. But the Trumpster is undeniable in very deep trouble.

[Erc]

Plugging white educational crosstabs into the 538 demographic calculator (and using Latino Voices results for the Latino vote) gives Clinton a 14-point win: 2012+NC+GA+AZ+NE-2+SC+TX+(MS??)

MS doesn't seem plausible unless white turnout is actually way down, but the rest could happen.

[Figueira]

If those states flip I think AK does too.

[OneJ]

Plugging white educational crosstabs into the 538 demographic calculator (and using Latino Voices results for the Latino vote) gives Clinton a 14-point win: 2012+NC+GA+AZ+NE-2+SC+TX+(MS??)

MS doesn't seem plausible unless white turnout is actually way down, but the rest could happen.

This would be a beautiful landslide! I would be happy if Trump wins MS by less than ten points then I would be happy.

[ProudModerate2]

Wow.
Another national double-digit lead poll for Clinton.
Will this trend continue ?

[Xing]

Clinton probably won't win by this much, but "the surge is real!"

[F_S_USATN]

this one broke the back of even one of the more bullish Trump numbers guy

Sean T at RCP ‏@SeanTrende  4m4 minutes ago
Sean T at RCP Retweeted RealClearPolitics
Done.

‏@RealClearNews
The presidential election is four weeks from today; Clinton leads Trump by 6.5% in the RCP polling average

*he does put it out there that 6.5 pts can be made up but not with more videos/more tax stuff/more candidate discipline

[ElectionsGuy]

The Trump tapes were only released during the latter end of the polling dates, so likely an out lie.