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Author Topic: OH-Baldwin Wallace: Clinton +10/+9  (Read 2158 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 12, 2016, 05:39:39 am »

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/10/new_ohio_poll_puts_hillary_cli.html

Clinton 48
Trump 38

Clinton 43%
Trump 34%
Johnson 10%
Stein 3%

Oct. 9 - 11.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 06:23:28 am by Lief 🐋 »Logged

fuck nazis
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2016, 05:40:26 am »

Never heard of them.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2016, 05:43:30 am »

BWU Ohio Poll, conducted October 9-11 with 1152 LV.

Clinton 43%

Trump 34%

Johnson 10%

Stein 3%

https://www.bw.edu/news/2016/bw-poll-shows-ohio-voters-leaning-away-from-trump
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2016, 05:46:35 am »

Sounds to good to be true.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2016, 05:50:50 am »

LOL
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matthew27
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2016, 05:54:11 am »

Ohioans pick a clear debate winner

The BW CRI survey, conducted after Sunday’s presidential debate, asked the 59% of respondents who said they watched the town hall-style forum to name the winner. More than half (52%) said Clinton bested Trump, about a third (31%) said Trump gave a superior performance, and 17% called it a tie.


Did the debate move the needle on opinion? Almost 31% of debate watchers say they now hold a “more favorable” opinion of Clinton versus 26% “less favorable,” while 41% had “less favorable” post debate opinions about Trump to 21% “more favorable.” One in five say the debate had impact on their vote one way or another, a finding that was true across all party lines.

When asked to choose which candidate best matched a series of statements about debate performance, by wide margins, more Ohio debate watchers thought Clinton “was more likable,” “expressed her views more clearly,” “seemed to be the stronger leader” and “spent more time discussing policy,” while Trump “spent more time attacking [his] opponent.”


https://www.bw.edu/news/2016/bw-poll-shows-ohio-voters-leaning-away-from-trump
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2016, 06:15:42 am »

Sounds to good to be true.

Probably, but the Senate numbers check out.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2016, 06:25:20 am »

The poll is pretty young:

27.7% 18-34
36.7% 35-54
17.2% 55-64
18.5% 65 and over

But it is also pretty white for Ohio:

91.3% White
4.8% Black

« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 06:37:38 am by Assemblyman Gass3268 »Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2016, 06:35:52 am »

The poll is pretty young:
27.7% 18-34
36.7% 35-54
17.2% 55-64
18.5% 65 and over

But it is also pretty white for Ohio:

91.3% White
4.8% Black



Way too white and way too young.
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2016, 06:36:34 am »


Great poll!
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2016, 07:28:51 am »

The phlegm has been hocked from the fat lady's throat, ladies and gentlemen, and she's Donned her Viking helmet.  Stay tuned for warmups.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2016, 07:29:25 am »

yeah, the demographics are off but...the same sample which follows the common wisdom big portman lead, shows a clinton landslide.

strange coincidence or something major has changed in OH.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2016, 07:31:39 am »

I mean, I expect Ohio to be a couple of points right to the national average so if recent polls showing Clinton up by 10 points or so are correct this is within MoE.

It's an outlier but it's not necessarily crazy.
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2016, 07:35:03 am »

Outlier? Maybe, but with some polls showing Hillary Clinton up in by about 10% nationwide,  it is consistent with such national polls.  Ohio is a fairly-good microcosm of America. Dislike it? Then wait for another poll. Ohio gets polled a lot. What do you think "swing state" means?

This is after the exposure of you-know-what story and the execrable performance of Donald Trump in the second debate. You do not call your opponent "the Devil" and you don;t suggest that she would be in jail in your Presidency. You also do not offer a foreign policy crankier than what the Nixon campaign pinned on George McGovern.

Political collapses first show up in polls that look like outliers. This may be a flawed poll due to demographics of the sample (too young and too white), but how else can I show what may be going on in Ohio?

This may not be a replay of LBJ vs. Goldwater, in which LBJ won Ohio nearly 63-37...but Ohio is typically about R+2 Clinton up 10 or so is consistent with a Clinton win of 56-44 nationally. That's close to FDR vs. Willkie.  
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2016, 07:44:00 am »

this would make at least some sense if OH still would be THE bellwether state.

since it usually votes to the right of the nation, i would argue, if clinton is +6 she should be about +3 and +7 in oh polls.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2016, 07:46:51 am »

No doubt way too generous to Clinton, but I'll take it!
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2016, 07:52:53 am »

Outlier poll. There's no way she's leading nationally by 7-8 and in Ohio by 10
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2016, 08:11:47 am »

Outlier, but Baldwin Wallace does pretty good polling. They're a local university, BTW.

Over polling whites with a Clinton lead this great, even if skewed young, is big.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2016, 08:21:56 am »

Outlier, but Baldwin Wallace does pretty good polling. They're a local university, BTW.

Over polling whites with a Clinton lead this great, even if skewed young, is big.
I guess overskewing young voters will overshadow overskewing white voters in a midwestern state.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2016, 08:35:29 am »

Never heard of this pollster and a double-digit lead seems a little off. She’s certainly ahead in OH, maybe by three to five points, but not ten. As much as I like it to be true.
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2016, 08:36:10 am »

Holy moly. This is probably too good to be true.
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2016, 08:52:06 am »

The poll was weighed only by age and gender. It's important to also weigh by race and education. Young female, for example, doesn't necessarily mean Democratic. She could be more likely a Republican if she is a non-college white. The methodology they used would likely have a YUGE bias against Republicans.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2016, 09:08:25 am »

BWU is like Emerson polling Georgia. Similar examples exist. They're legit.
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« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2016, 09:23:52 am »

Dominating!
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Figueira
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2016, 09:31:08 am »

Portman overperforming Trump by over 20 points? I'm skeptical.
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