UT: Y2 Analytics- Tie

[SteveRogers]

The lack of an article on 538 addressing McMullin's chances and effect on #BattlegroundUtah is hard proof that Nate Silver doesn't read Atlas.

Nate Silver said in his Election Update article today to give 538 a day or two to add McMullin to their model.

[longtimelurker]

Does anyone think some Johnson voters might flip to McMullin?  I imagine word about this poll will go around pretty quickly in Utah.

Seems like a safe bet.  I'm actually impressed McMullin is doing this well considering he hasn't had any high-profile elected endorsements.  I'm sure he has room to grow, especially from Johnson (who's obviously over-polling here still, and I'm sure a lot of that is Mormon protest vote).

I'm not sure whether this will carry over to Election Day, but man, this would be one hell of an historical footnote.

I would think that Johnson is actually as bad fit for Reoublican LDS members who don't want to vote Trump.  Johnson's pro-marijuana, and LDS doesn't even allow cigarette smoking.  But, if McMullin is seen as viable for Utah, maybe even some not-exactly-thrilled Clinton and Trump supporters might jump ship.

[Alcon]

Does anyone think some Johnson voters might flip to McMullin?  I imagine word about this poll will go around pretty quickly in Utah.

Seems like a safe bet.  I'm actually impressed McMullin is doing this well considering he hasn't had any high-profile elected endorsements.  I'm sure he has room to grow, especially from Johnson (who's obviously over-polling here still, and I'm sure a lot of that is Mormon protest vote).

I'm not sure whether this will carry over to Election Day, but man, this would be one hell of an historical footnote.

I would think that Johnson is actually as bad fit for Reoublican LDS members who don't want to vote Trump.  Johnson's pro-marijuana, and LDS doesn't even allow cigarette smoking.  But, if McMullin is seen as viable for Utah, maybe even some not-exactly-thrilled Clinton and Trump supporters might jump ship.

Yeah, 100% agreed.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Johnson's only real strength in Utah was as a protest candidate. Now that McMullin is a major player, I expect that he'll get a bit more Johnson support (Johnson will probably get 8-10% in UT). If McMullin can roll out endorsements from Chaffetz, Lee, Herbert, Romney, etc., I expect that he'll win Utah.

As much as I would love to see Johnson win a state, I'll be happy if McMullin wins Utah as long as Johnson still gets 5% nationwide. Anything to make the map more colorful.

I'd love to see an Idaho poll as well.

[ElectionAtlas]

Hi,
The polling database has been updated to include McMullin as a separate independent.
Note: when adding new polls, only add McMullin percentage to the I box.

Thanks,
Dave

[RI]

Hi,
The polling database has been updated to include McMullin as a separate independent.
Note: when adding new polls, only add McMullin percentage to the I box.

Thanks,
Dave

Dave, this poll needs to be updated as well.

[ElectionAtlas]

Thanks - done.
Dave

[Bojack Horseman]

If Utah flips, then it's more and more possible that Hillary Clinton hits 400 electoral votes. After Utah, all she'd need is Indiana, Georgia, and Missouri and she's at 401.

[Simfan34]

Hi,
The polling database has been updated to include McMullin as a separate independent.
Note: when adding new polls, only add McMullin percentage to the I box.

Thanks,
Dave

Thanks, Dave.

Is there any reason you chose not to add a separate line for Johnson? Considering he has been in double digits in some polls I would imagine it to be reasonable.

[Eraserhead]

Unless I am mistaken, this election could tie 1912 in the number of candidates who get more than 1% of the vote, which if I am not mistaken was the record year. 5 then, and Trump, Clinton, Johnson, McMullin, and Stein now. Johnson and McMullin seem all but guaranteed, so it will be interesting if Stein can make it as well.

Stein has a much better chance at hitting 1% nationally than McMullin does. He's doing great in Utah but he's only on the ballot in like 10 other states and he doesn't seem to be much of a factor in any of them.

He's not even on the ballot in huge states like California, New York and Florida.

[NOVA Green]

After today's most recent allegations, I would be extremely surprised if Trump wins Utah.

At this point, I have to believe it will most likely go for a 3rd party candidate, if not even potentially flipping Dem depending upon the McMullen/Johnson split.

[riceowl]

Fox News moved Utah to "Toss-Up."

That's a real sentence.

https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/786383230375038978

[RINO Tom]

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Does McMuffin win if Romney endorses?

Honestly, yes.