OH-Baldwin Wallace: Clinton +10/+9

[pbrower2a]

Outlier? Maybe, but with some polls showing Hillary Clinton up in by about 10% nationwide,  it is consistent with such national polls.  Ohio is a fairly-good microcosm of America. Dislike it? Then wait for another poll. Ohio gets polled a lot. What do you think "swing state" means?

This is after the exposure of you-know-what story and the execrable performance of Donald Trump in the second debate. You do not call your opponent "the Devil" and you don;t suggest that she would be in jail in your Presidency. You also do not offer a foreign policy crankier than what the Nixon campaign pinned on George McGovern.

Political collapses first show up in polls that look like outliers. This may be a flawed poll due to demographics of the sample (too young and too white), but how else can I show what may be going on in Ohio?

This may not be a replay of LBJ vs. Goldwater, in which LBJ won Ohio nearly 63-37...but Ohio is typically about R+2 Clinton up 10 or so is consistent with a Clinton win of 56-44 nationally. That's close to FDR vs. Willkie.  

[pbrower2a]

It is consistent with the Saturday-Sunday polling (but not Thursday and Friday!) by Marquette University Law School in Wisconsin, where Hillary Clinton went from a virtual tie to 1 19-point lead, the lead in Wisconsin mostly from the collapse of Trump support. Trump support fell 17% among evangelical voters. Evangelical values may do more to abandon Donald Trump than 'regional' values. Ohio has huge numbers of evangelical voters.

The damage to the Trump candidacy is so severe that his ideology will need a new personality to push it in 2020 or 2024. But it won't appear as Donald Trump. His campaign has been shattered.