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Author Topic: WI - Marquette: Clinton+7  (Read 3828 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: October 12, 2016, 12:23:23 pm »

Live Stream: https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/d4bac28d2066460da7aef4d19adcb0381d.

Clinton 44 (41 last time)
Trump  37 (38)
Johnson 9 (11)
Stein 3 (2)

Party ID (w/leaners): D-47, R-44

878 LV, 10/6-10/9: Half last Thu, half Fri-Sun, all before Sun debate

DAY BY DAY BREAKDOWN (much larger MOE):

THU: Trump 41, Clinton 40 (T+1)
FRI: Clinton 44, Trump 38 (C+6)
SAT+SUN: Clinton 49, Trump 30 (C+19)

SENATE: Feingold 46, Johnson 44
                

« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 12:48:02 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2016, 12:24:35 pm »

Good but not great poll for Clinton. With Pennsylvania virtually gone Trump has to at least try Wisconsin
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2016, 12:25:38 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2016, 12:26:02 pm »

Marquette is a pretty solid poll, so a swing to clinton like this is only good news
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Gustaf
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2016, 12:27:06 pm »

Well, most of this is pre Clinton's latest surge so it's not too bad.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2016, 12:28:34 pm »

I'm listening to the broadcast of the release, and they're breaking it down by day: Thurs, Fri, and Sat/Sun (there were only 90 interviews on Sunday, so they lumped it in with Saturday).

Thu: T+1
Fri: C+6
Sat/Sun: C+19
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2016, 12:28:48 pm »

The timing of this poll doesn't really capture the effect of Pussygate, so an Obama 2012 margin is completely reasonable.

EDIT:  holy moly, although you have to be careful will small sample sizes, that Sat/Sun breakdown is ridic!
« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 12:31:36 pm by john cage bubblegum »Logged
Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2016, 12:29:24 pm »

Wait, people are down about Clinton being up 7? I was worried it was going to be below 5 points. Feingold's numbers are troubling, but I'm not worried about him if Clinton wins by around 5.
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2016, 12:29:51 pm »

I'm listening to the broadcast of the release, and they're breaking it down by day: Thurs, Fri, and Sat/Sun (there were only 90 interviews on Sunday, so they lumped it in with Saturday).

Thu: T+1
Fri: C+6
Sat/Sun: C+19
This is ridiculous
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Ronnie
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2016, 12:30:06 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

Based on what?  Most data we've seen so far corroborate that most Johnson voters would otherwise vote for Clinton.
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2016, 12:30:15 pm »

Marquette is breaking down the poll down day by day to show a significant effect from the Trump tapes

Trump led by 1 point in WI before the tapes
By Sunday, Clinton led by 19

They're going to have to do another poll to see what the debate did to the numbers. Is Clinton holding a massive lead or did Trump stanch the bleeding to make it mildly competitive
« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 12:31:54 pm by dspNY »Logged
HillOfANight
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2016, 12:32:39 pm »

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/786257417809965057

Among evangelical likely voters in WI:

Thursday: Trump 64%, Clinton 24%
Friday: Trump 55%, Clinton 32%
Sat+Sun: Trump 47%, Clinton 31%

Among white LVs without college degrees in WI:

Thu: Trump 48%, Clinton 33%
Fri: Trump 41%, Clinton 38%
Sat+Sun: Clinton 42%, Trump 35%
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2016, 12:34:04 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

Undecideds typically break for the "status quo", though of course it's easy to come up with counterexamples.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2016, 12:34:28 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

It did not work that way at all in the primaries.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2016, 12:35:55 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.

Clinton is up 7-8 nationally when early voting in many states is just beginning, and you're wetting your pants?  Some people here just confuse the hell out of me.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2016, 12:36:07 pm »

Feingold - Johnson: 46 - 44

still much too close for my likings but trump is hellish competetive in this poll the whole season.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2016, 12:37:40 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.

Dude, there is no reason to freak out.
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dspNY
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2016, 12:38:46 pm »

The 538 Nowcast has Clinton +8.6 in WI so a Clinton +7 makes sense
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2016, 12:38:58 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.
Dude, I'm a total fatalist, but this is ridiculous.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2016, 12:39:06 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.

The Thursday sample with a 1 point Trump lead was probably like 250 people.  Trump was not ahead by 1 in WI on Thursday.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2016, 12:40:16 pm »

if anyone wins this thing for trump it's wikileaks and this is hiiiiiiiiiiiighly unlikely.
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dspNY
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2016, 12:41:45 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.

All the internals in this poll favor Clinton substantially to the point where a double-digit victory for her in WI is more likely than a nailbiter

Also remember that Clinton likely has more big oppo dumps on Trump that are damaging (the Access Hollywood tape was almost certainly a coordinated oppo drop)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2016, 12:42:16 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.

The Thursday sample with a 1 point Trump lead was probably like 250 people.  Trump was not ahead by 1 in WI on Thursday.

IIRC they said it was about 440.
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TC 25
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« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2016, 12:45:10 pm »

This was all pre-Sunday night debate, so odds are that it has tightened in Wisconsin at least a little.

i live in Minnesota, and word is that Trump is coming to Wisconsin on Monday.  He's a longshot in Wisconsin, but he still has a shot.  Not over.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2016, 12:45:33 pm »

those numbers all seem strange.....over here:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

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