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  WI - Marquette: Clinton+7
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette: Clinton+7  (Read 4494 times)
john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2016, 12:46:40 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.

The Thursday sample with a 1 point Trump lead was probably like 250 people.  Trump was not ahead by 1 in WI on Thursday.

IIRC they said it was about 440.

So they did half of their interviews (880 LVs) on Thursday?  Fair enough if true, I was assuming a more even distribution.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2016, 12:48:39 pm »

I'm listening to the broadcast of the release, and they're breaking it down by day: Thurs, Fri, and Sat/Sun (there were only 90 interviews on Sunday, so they lumped it in with Saturday).

Thu: T+1
Fri: C+6
Sat/Sun: C+19

Wow.
A new poll done now, should show a very comfortable lead.
But we should not be complaining about a Clinton +7 ; that is a healthy cushion.
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Scott 🤡🌏
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« Reply #27 on: October 12, 2016, 12:55:09 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

That's a good impression of a paranoid Atlas leftist.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2016, 12:57:58 pm »


A new poll done now, should show a very comfortable lead.
But we should not be complaining about a Clinton +7 ; that is a healthy cushion.


it is, we are just not used to the fact, that each single day has a MOE of its own and we get the average of the average. Wink
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2016, 01:01:11 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

That's a good impression of a paranoid Atlas leftist.

I don't what you're implying here, but if you're accusing me of being a troll, I don't interact with other users here to know enough about the average "Atlas leftist" to impersonate them. Anyway, it doesn't matter, I no longer care about this race, or to put it more accurately, I am making a conscious decision not to care.
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2016, 01:01:59 pm »

Wait, we're seriously freaking out because this poll only has Hillary up by 7, and that's a four-point swing in her favor, mostly before the effects of pussygate? The paranoia of some Democrats here is insane.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2016, 01:04:35 pm »

Wait, we're seriously freaking out because this poll only has Hillary up by 7, and that's a four-point swing in her favor, mostly before the effects of pussygate? The paranoia of some Democrats here is insane.

I think a few people are freaking out that it was Trump +1 on Thursday. I do find that number interesting but nothing to freak out about.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2016, 01:06:11 pm »

well, one could argue, if the republican base finds again home and trump was competetive before, the general disgust could decrease in some states enough till november.....in one week we know more. Wink
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Yank2133
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« Reply #33 on: October 12, 2016, 01:06:40 pm »

Wait, we're seriously freaking out because this poll only has Hillary up by 7, and that's a four-point swing in her favor, mostly before the effects of pussygate? The paranoia of some Democrats here is insane.

Bed-wetting Dems are the worst.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #34 on: October 12, 2016, 01:07:16 pm »

Didn't someone on here say that Marquette only polls those that are 100% certain to vote? Maybe that is affecting the numbers.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2016, 01:07:29 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

That's a good impression of a paranoid Atlas leftist.

I don't what you're implying here, but if you're accusing me of being a troll, I don't interact with other users here to know enough about the average "Atlas leftist" to impersonate them. Anyway, it doesn't matter, I no longer care about this race, or to put it more accurately, I am making a conscious decision not to care.

I don't know why you are freaking out? Hillary is almost to 90% to win in every credible projection model. People are already voting on many states or will be very shortly. Trump has ZERO GOTV or campaign organization. He's fighting with his own party. 27 days is not enough time for him to come back from that.
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darthpi
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2016, 01:08:07 pm »

Also worth noting this is before Trump decided to go to war with Paul Ryan.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2016, 01:08:32 pm »

Didn't someone on here say that Marquette only polls those that are 100% certain to vote? Maybe that is affecting the numbers.

Yes, so the huge differential in GOTV could add a point or two to Clinton. Early voting already looks really good for Democrats.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2016, 01:09:45 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

That's a good impression of a paranoid Atlas leftist.

I don't what you're implying here, but if you're accusing me of being a troll, I don't interact with other users here to know enough about the average "Atlas leftist" to impersonate them. Anyway, it doesn't matter, I no longer care about this race, or to put it more accurately, I am making a conscious decision not to care.

I don't know why you are freaking out? Hillary is almost to 90% to win in every credible projection model. People are already voting on many states or will be very shortly. Trump has ZERO GOTV or campaign organization. He's fighting with his own party. 27 days is not enough time for him to come back from that.

It's incredibly frustrating to see that Trump was ahead in a Kerry state after the first debate AND tax return scandal. I thought WI was locked down for months and now it's getting weird when things seem to be going really well for Hillary.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2016, 01:10:23 pm »

Didn't someone on here say that Marquette only polls those that are 100% certain to vote? Maybe that is affecting the numbers.

MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  52m52 minutes ago
878 out of 1,000 respondents said they were certain to vote, which we label likely voters. Margin of error for them is +/-3.9. #MULawPoll

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/786254443813621760
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2016, 01:13:02 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2016, 01:20:28 pm by Ozymandias »

It's incredibly frustrating to see that Trump was ahead in a Kerry state after the first debate AND tax return scandal. I thought WI was locked down for months and now it's getting weird when things seem to be going really well for Hillary.

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).
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Arch
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« Reply #41 on: October 12, 2016, 01:15:09 pm »

There are seriously people freaking out about a near double-digit lead for Clinton in WI??
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #42 on: October 12, 2016, 01:17:07 pm »

not freaking out...just wondering since when hillary is a better pick for WI than feingold. Wink
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #43 on: October 12, 2016, 01:18:56 pm »

Poor Hill Of A Night... he's done caught the Beet-fever and it's made his brains into mush.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: October 12, 2016, 01:21:59 pm »

It's incredibly frustrating to see that Trump was ahead in a Kerry state after the first debate AND tax return scandal. I thought WI was locked down for months and now it's getting weird when things seem to be going really well for Hillary.

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).


Word is that Trump has pulled out of PA and is shifting those resources to Wisconsin. Sounds like a $600K ad buy is coming.
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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: October 12, 2016, 01:24:54 pm »

Feingold - Johnson: 46 - 44

still much too close for my likings but trump is hellish competetive in this poll the whole season.

Given how close the Senate race is despite a large Clinton lead shows what might have been if Trump was not on top of the GOP ticket.  Of course this before the debate so perhaps there might be a swing toward Trump in the next poll but I doubt it would be anywhere close to being enough to give the GOP any chances here in any race.
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Scott 🤡🌏
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« Reply #46 on: October 12, 2016, 01:24:59 pm »

It's incredibly frustrating to see that Trump was ahead in a Kerry state after the first debate AND tax return scandal. I thought WI was locked down for months and now it's getting weird when things seem to be going really well for Hillary.

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).


Word is that Trump has pulled out of PA and is shifting those resources to Wisconsin. Sounds like a $600K ad buy is coming.

So this is the best Trump is hoping for now?



That's a 269 tie.  Trump must really be banking on one of Nevada, New Hampshire, or ME-2.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #47 on: October 12, 2016, 01:26:15 pm »

It's incredibly frustrating to see that Trump was ahead in a Kerry state after the first debate AND tax return scandal. I thought WI was locked down for months and now it's getting weird when things seem to be going really well for Hillary.

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).


Word is that Trump has pulled out of PA and is shifting those resources to Wisconsin. Sounds like a $600K ad buy is coming.

So this is the best Trump is hoping for now?



That's a 269 tie.  Trump must really be banking on one of Nevada, New Hampshire, or ME-2.

Trump wins in a tie.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #48 on: October 12, 2016, 01:28:59 pm »

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).


Word is that Trump has pulled out of PA and is shifting those resources to Wisconsin. Sounds like a $600K ad buy is coming.

Could be-- though Trump already cut back on PA spending: less than 100K combined over last three weeks (was ~600 K four weeks ago), according to http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending

He seems to have shifted this money to CO (over 600 K last 2 weeks), but I can see him abandoning that effort after the recent great CO polls for Clinton.

So maybe WI will be his next target...

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Gass3268
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« Reply #49 on: October 12, 2016, 01:30:22 pm »

WI was always going to be a better bet for Trump than PA. With a generic R, this state would be tilt/lean R right now.

Don't know if they would have the same appeal to white working class whites that Trump does.
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