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  WI - Marquette: Clinton+7
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette: Clinton+7  (Read 4500 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #50 on: October 12, 2016, 01:47:29 pm »

It's incredibly frustrating to see that Trump was ahead in a Kerry state after the first debate AND tax return scandal. I thought WI was locked down for months and now it's getting weird when things seem to be going really well for Hillary.

The fact that neither campaign has spent any money on ads here in the last two months suggests VERY strongly that all internal polling indicates a comfortable Wisconsin win-- by which I mean, the margin in WI will be larger than the margins in NH and PA (where the Clinton campaign is spending a lot of money).


Word is that Trump has pulled out of PA and is shifting those resources to Wisconsin. Sounds like a $600K ad buy is coming.

So this is the best Trump is hoping for now?



That's a 269 tie.  Trump must really be banking on one of Nevada, New Hampshire, or ME-2.

Trump wins in a tie.

Debatable.  The pressure on some electors to switch would be enormous.  And even if it did go to the House, it's not a lock that Trump would win there.  Yes, I know that Republicans control a majority of state delegations -- but given the rifts between Trump and some in the GOP, there's no guarantee that they would all vote that way.

Of course, the really amusing idea would be to take that map and flip NE-02, with the result that Clinton wins a bare electoral majority because of a Nebraska district!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #51 on: October 12, 2016, 01:57:50 pm »

Trump was leading? After the first debate? And people think he's not going to pull ahead by next month, after weeks of Trump's smear campaign against Clinton which apparently the joke state of WI is so eager to buy into? LOL

Trump will win WI, IA, OH and probably the election. I'm not following this race anymore. Just don't care.

You're being utterly ridiculous. You're going on ignore.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #52 on: October 12, 2016, 02:01:16 pm »

I just realized that since Hillary is as low as 44% now, the Trump +1 day was probably something worthless like 42-41% or even lower. So not really concerning, though it could of course become so in the near future.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #53 on: October 12, 2016, 02:06:03 pm »

Clinton is winning the Milwaukee media market, outside the city of Milwaukee 42-40. That's how it was looking right after the conventions. This doesn't mean she's winning in the WOW counties, but it does mean he's performing like crap in the Republican base region.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #54 on: October 12, 2016, 02:46:36 pm »

Getting Trump to 260 in a close race is pretty easy (Romney+FL,OH,IA,ME2). Adding WI gets him to 270. At times it has seemed that WI is his best path through the CLinton wall. He originally focused on PA but now they seem to be focusing on winning 2 out of 3 of NV, NH and CO. Should he divert that NV/NH/CO time and money to WI?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #55 on: October 12, 2016, 02:48:30 pm »

Getting Trump to 260 in a close race is pretty easy (Romney+FL,OH,IA,ME2). Adding WI gets him to 270. At times it has seemed that WI is his best path through the CLinton wall. He originally focused on PA but now they seem to be focusing on winning 2 out of 3 of NV, NH and CO. Should he divert that NV/NH/CO time and money to WI?

Funny because Priorites USA just cut its finally weeks of ads in CO. The Clinton camp will now be 100% dark in CO after this week.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #56 on: October 12, 2016, 03:10:01 pm »

A big part of the post-campaign analysis will be the sort of flailing around the Trump campaign has with its electoral path strategy and the way it has spent its resources (money and candidate time). They spent a lot of candidate time in pointless states and outside of FL, OH and NC they have gone up and down in different states for the last couple of months including going dark for long stretches.  There is nothing wrong with them spending in CO/NV/NH, but should they be betting the TV spend farm on that path? And if so, then why send the candidate to PA?  It is all a hodgepodge. 

On the Clinton side they have pretty much stuck with their map since the beginning, with the only change a slow pull back on defense from where they feel safe (CO and VA) and at times a bit of a pull back in IA and OH where they felt they were slipping away and needed to shore up elsewhere. But they have never gone dark on TV in either and Clinton has been back in both IA and OH recently. 

Regarding WI, Team Clinton hasn't really spent anything on TV and they have spent limited candidate/surrogate time too. Maybe they know something Marquette poll doesn't show because they are treating it as safer than CO and VA, yet they continue to spend significantly in PA.   
 
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #57 on: October 12, 2016, 03:31:27 pm »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/12/donald-trumps-poll-numbers-collapsed-in-wisconsin-after-the-hot-mic-tape-came-out/

Nice visualization by the Washington Post of Trump's collapse.

Image Link
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2016, 03:35:00 pm »

Trump's Pussygate gaffe could be disproportionately bad for him in the Upper Midwestern 'Nice' states as well as the states in the Mormon corridor like Idaho and Utah. That type of behavior Trump talked about could be seen much more as 'locker room talk' in PA or Ohio, but completely unacceptable by the vast majority in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
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dspNY
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« Reply #59 on: October 12, 2016, 03:40:46 pm »

Trump's Pussygate gaffe could be disproportionately bad for him in the Upper Midwestern 'Nice' states as well as the states in the Mormon corridor like Idaho and Utah. That type of behavior Trump talked about could be seen much more as 'locker room talk' in PA or Ohio, but completely unacceptable by the vast majority in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

You could include the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas as well. Not sure those states will move enough to Clinton but we could see polls out of those states showing Trump's lead far below that of a conventional Repub
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #60 on: October 12, 2016, 08:17:05 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-10-09

Summary: D: 44%, R: 37%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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uti2
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« Reply #61 on: October 12, 2016, 09:13:23 pm »

WI was always going to be a better bet for Trump than PA. With a generic R, this state would be tilt/lean R right now.

lol, WI is safe D as long as everyone shows up to vote, there are very few swing voters. NH has a much better chance of flipping before WI, NH has much more independents.

Anyway, the senate race is a better example of how things would look as has been pointed out, some polls have feingold ahead massively, others closer but still ahead.

Let's put it this way, it's impossible for a an R to win unless they can depress berniebro turnout, a generic R would be too polarizing to do that, but a moderate R who is less extreme on economic issues, etc. is another story.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #62 on: October 12, 2016, 10:37:31 pm »

Ugh, what's going on with the Senate race?
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #63 on: November 11, 2016, 02:27:59 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

That's a good impression of a paranoid Atlas leftist.

No, that's brilliant analysis.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #64 on: November 11, 2016, 03:02:42 pm »

So disappointing. Way too many undecideds and inflated thirty party support. If they haven't decided against Trump now they're probably going to break his way in the end. TNVolunteer was right.

That's a good impression of a paranoid Atlas leftist.

No, that's brilliant analysis.

Haha, kudos!
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EliteLX
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« Reply #65 on: November 14, 2016, 12:40:17 pm »

Cucks got cucked.
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