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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  UT-Monmouth: Trump 34%, Clinton 28%, McMullin 20%
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Author Topic: UT-Monmouth: Trump 34%, Clinton 28%, McMullin 20%  (Read 2293 times)
heatcharger
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« on: October 13, 2016, 12:05:59 pm »

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_101316/

Trump - 34%
Clinton - 28%
McMullin - 20%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 1%
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2016, 12:06:36 pm »

To be expected.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2016, 12:07:05 pm »

Img
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2016, 12:07:15 pm »

Not sure that McMullin will rise fast enough in time to take it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2016, 12:08:25 pm »

Not sure that McMullin will rise fast enough in time to take it.

If he gets institutional support he will.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2016, 12:09:28 pm »

I'm not surprised.
I thought that other poll (trump and Clinton tied) may have been too good to be true.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2016, 12:09:39 pm »

So Clinton has a better chance here than Trump does in Pennsylvania.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2016, 12:11:00 pm »

Not sure that McMullin will rise fast enough in time to take it.

If he gets institutional support he will.

It would be unprecedented to shift +14 deficit within a month but UT whites are very different due to Mormonism so you could be right.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2016, 12:12:43 pm »

Get all the elected leadership, Romney, the LDS and anyone else to endorse McMullij and the state is gone.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2016, 12:53:10 pm »

I wonder if McMuffin will actually get more than 20% on election day.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2016, 01:07:39 pm »

Look at these favorable #s…

fav/unfav %:
McMullin 28/6% for +22%
Clinton 25/69% for -44%
Trump 19/71% for -52%

That’s right.  McMullin’s name recognition is low enough that a whopping 66% of voters have no opinion of him.  But he still pulls in 20% of the vote.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2016, 01:08:23 pm »

rofl lmao toss-up utah
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Fargobison
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2016, 01:10:20 pm »

McMullin has momentum but he needs some big endorsements to boost him over the edge.

He should just live in Utah for the next month.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2016, 01:10:51 pm »

Not sure that McMullin will rise fast enough in time to take it.

If he gets institutional support he will.

It would be unprecedented to shift +14 deficit within a month but UT whites are very different due to Mormonism so you could be right.

McMullin's path is to ride a wave of free media off of his existing poll #s in the state.  Most voters have no idea who he is.  However, the very fact that he's doing so well in these recent polls could generate a bunch of media coverage, which would in turn boost his name recognition, and open up new support.  Surely there are a fair few of those 66% of voters with no opinion of him who would be interested in supporting him if they knew who he was.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2016, 01:13:54 pm »

MuffinMentum
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2016, 01:14:45 pm »

wait for romney, love, the gov, the senator....
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2016, 01:22:02 pm »

Support by party:

Dems
Clinton 92%
McMullin 5%
Trump 2%
Johnson 1%
Stein 0%

GOP
Trump 55%
McMullin 26%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 29%
Clinton 23%
McMullin 21%
Johnson 16%
Stein 2%

By gender:

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 26%
McMullin 14%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

women:
Clinton 31%
Trump 27%
McMullin 26%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

From the above, looks like McMullin’s base is Republican women.  Republican men might be sticking with Trump, but Republican women are getting McMullined.

McMullin also does better among voters under 50 and voters with a college degree.  Oh, and there’s this:

Mormon:
Trump 38%
McMullin 32%
Clinton 13%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

non-Mormon:
Clinton 50%
Trump 29%
Johnson 9%
McMullin 4%
Stein 1%

McMullin has a net positive favorable number among all demographic groups, even Democrats.  However, 80% of Dems have no opinion of him, while it’s only 60% for Republicans.  Also, 54% of Mormons have no opinion of him, compared to 82% of non-Mormons.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2016, 01:25:42 pm »

It looks like Trump will hang on, unfortunately.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2016, 01:40:33 pm »

McMullin has momentum but he needs some big endorsements to boost him over the edge.
He should just live in Utah for the next month.

I agree.
He needs to be making the rounds EVERYDAY across Utah.
Then, there is a possibility.
The way I would look at it if I was McMullin, is that if I can win Utah, then my name will be forever in the history books .... and also, the future possibility (if he desires it) of becoming a member of the state legislature, Congressman, Senator, Governor, etc.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2016, 01:58:22 pm »

If McMullin campaigns hard in Utah and can rack up some high profile endorsements, he could still win the state.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2016, 02:03:13 pm »

I think McMullin is pretty much already doing nothing but campaigning in Utah. I think what he needs more is to solicit enough donations from the disaffected GOP donor class to run a few ads.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2016, 02:10:29 pm »

McMullin will win this state. There is absolutely no question in my mind any longer. Just look at those favourable numbers! Even though two thirds of Utah voters have never even heard of the guy, he's still at 28% favourable in the state, far, far higher than Trump's lackluster 19%. Yes, that means that HALF of all Utah voters who currently say they will vote for Trump actually have an UNFAVOURABLE opinion of him! That's just absolutely, bloody crazy!!
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2016, 07:37:25 pm »

This is still amazing.
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20PETE20
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2016, 09:17:07 am »

Has there been any indication that the powers that be in Utah will move to endorse McMuffin?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2016, 09:18:16 am »

Has there been any indication that the powers that be in Utah will move to endorse McMuffin?

There were reports he had meetings with upper level Utah officials over the weekend.
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