GA-Landmark: Trump +6

[HillOfANight]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/13/new-poll-donald-trump-johnny-isakson-maintain-strong-leads-in-georgia/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_KEK8-LWmzhOVRSQXFzaGI1Si1sUDBvN0xpeVFhZzRTQTRR/view

Conducted Monday to Tuesday October 11-12.

Trump 48 (47)
Clinton 42 (43)
Johnson 4 (6)
Undecided 6 (3)

White
Trump 68
Clinton 23

Black
Trump 12
Clinton 78

[Lachi]

There is no way trump is winning that much of the black vote.

[Ozymandias]

10/11-10/12, 1400 LV

SENATE: Isakson (R) - 50, Barksdale (D) - 37

[Adam Griffin]

Nonsense.

[Ozymandias]

Good poll for Trump, lol.

10/11-10/12, 1400 LV

SENATE: Isakson (R) - 50, Barksdale (D) - 37

We have a Congressional board for this.

I think it's useful to report Senate and Governor margins to get a better sense of how "off" a particular pollster might be in the presidential race.

[rafta_rafta]

GA Isn't going to flip. I hope Utah and AZ does

[HillOfANight]

There is no way trump is winning that much of the black vote.

http://www.politicalecalling.com/voice.html

I always assumed Landmark was calling cells, but upon research of their old (previous?) partner Rosetta Stone, seems they're a robodial firm (though they do better than InsiderAdvantage and others in terms of weighting the black vote).

So if Trump is only up 6 in a robopoll, I think she is still within striking distance, as long as the #TrumpTapes keep dripping.

[dspNY]

Still a very difficult electorate to crack. Let's see what the AJC and other pollsters have to say in the meantime. Georgia's days as a republican state are definitely numbered though

[ProudModerate2]

People .... we "can't win them all" (states).
Clinton is still looking very, very good to win.
It's just a matter of also winning other "true swing states" like FL, OH, NC, NV, IA and maybe AZ.

[jamestroll]

Nonsense.

Yea, unlike 2008, I think Democrats actually have a legitimate shot to win Georgia this year. Obama led in one poll in 2008, iirc. Clinton has led in multiple polls.

But still, I think 2016 is the last election a Republican Presidential candidate will win Georgia in a neutral or Democratic leaning year.

[Ozymandias]

Good poll for Trump, lol.

10/11-10/12, 1400 LV

SENATE: Isakson (R) - 50, Barksdale (D) - 37

We have a Congressional board for this.

I think it's useful to report Senate and Governor margins to get a better sense of how "off" a particular pollster might be in the presidential race.

Also, I think the closeness of the senate races may affect where the Clinton campaign and Priorities USA are more likely to spend their resources.

For example, if this and the recent MO polls are correct, then I think Kander being in better shape than Barksdale makes it much more likely that Clinton campaigns in MO than GA.

[Xing]

Not great for Clinton, even if it is a bit Trump-friendly. I always did believe that AZ was more winnable than GA. Fortunately, Clinton can lose GA and still be in fine shape.

[Podgy the Bear]

A Trump +6 seems a little high, but it's still difficult to see Georgia going for Hillary this year. 

The demographics in Georgia are changing but in several ways.  The influx of black people (domestic and international) and Latinos is strongly countered by Anglos that tend to be quite conservative.  They tend to locate in the exurban Atlanta counties (Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Walton have a combined population of about 800,000) and turn out Republican majorities approaching 75-80%.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Upsetting, to be sure. That this man can win anything is a disgusting aberration.   

[Eraserhead]

She's not gonna win here (nor does she need to). Get over it, folks.

[john cage bubblegum]

Unless those reports of internal polling (from both parties) showing Trump struggling to hold onto GA are just false, I'm interested in seeing more polls from GA.

It "feels" like GA is a lot closer than this, but still with a narrow Trump lead.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Trump polling among blacks and other is to high. Still I believe that whoever the next Democratic President after Hillary is going to carry GA.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Unless those reports of internal polling (from both parties) showing Trump struggling to hold onto GA are just false, I'm interested in seeing more polls from GA.

It "feels" like GA is a lot closer than this, but still with a narrow Trump lead.

I agree. I'm willing to believe Trump is ahead, but by 6? When we got consecutive Missouri polls showing R+5? That doesn't jive

[HillOfANight]

Mark Rountree is a GOP pollster. I personally believe he likes teasing us with close polls in spring/summer to whip the GOP in shape, because he knows, long term, Republicans can't win Georgia by default.

Then near November, he takes the football back to discourage Dems.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mark Rountree is a GOP pollster. I personally believe he likes teasing us with close polls in spring/summer to whip the GOP in shape, because he knows, long term, Republicans can't win Georgia by default.

Then near November, he takes the football back to discourage Dems.

This is a good point.  It will be interesting to compare this poll to the AJC poll that comes out next week.

[OneJ]

Unless those reports of internal polling (from both parties) showing Trump struggling to hold onto GA are just false, I'm interested in seeing more polls from GA.

It "feels" like GA is a lot closer than this, but still with a narrow Trump lead.

I agree. I'm willing to believe Trump is ahead, but by 6? When we got consecutive Missouri polls showing R+5? That doesn't jive

This is exactly what I was thinking! I believe Trump has a very narrow lead in GA compared to previous years, but a +6 for him smells fishy considering how NC and FL are going, going, gone for Trump basically. Also, Missouri is only like +5 for him which makes it believable that GA will vote to the left of MO this year.

Plus, they say he is in great risk of losing GA anyway, so I'll take this poll with a grain of salt.

No way he is getting 12% of AA BTW.

[Adam Griffin]

Several issues with this poll:

• There are literally no undecided voters in this poll
• White electorate (62%) is larger than 2012 (61%); should be 58-60%
• Black electorate is not going to give Trump anywhere near 10%, especially w/ zero undecideds
• The two-party sample is 57% R, 43% D; overall, 50% R, 37% D, 11% I

So if we assume that Clinton's white share of the vote (23%) remains identical/none of the "other partiers" break for her, females reinforce the black vote at Obama 2012 levels of support and the "other" racial groups go for Clinton by the same margin as in the poll (Clinton +22)...

Group	% of Voters	Dem Support	% of Vote
White	59	0.23	13.57
Black	31	0.95	29.45
Other	10	0.61	6.1
Total	100		49.12

That's victory if Johnson takes 1.9 percent of the vote or more.

[Lachi]

I have never seen a poll at 50% republican by party I.D, that just insane.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Good poll for Trump, lol.

10/11-10/12, 1400 LV

SENATE: Isakson (R) - 50, Barksdale (D) - 37

We have a Congressional board for this.

I think it's useful to report Senate and Governor margins to get a better sense of how "off" a particular pollster might be in the presidential race.

That and to see how many ticket splitters there are.

[HillOfANight]

NVM the crazy party ID...

Clinton is getting 9.7% of Republican votes and Trump get 3.1% of Democrats.

4 years ago, when SurveyUSA nailed the 8 point race
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3a2e75e8-050a-4376-a75f-15c2e98935f5
Only 3% of Republicans defected to Dems, and 7% of Dems went Romney.

In August, when they had a tied race, she got 9.5% of Republicans, so doesn't look like she's losing ground.