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Author Topic: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4  (Read 3411 times)
DINGO Joe
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« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2016, 10:49:27 pm »

Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Hmm, if Clinton wins Texas which populated counties could she flip? I would think Tarrant County and Fort Bend County.

Hays, Williamson, Nueces, maybe even Galveston
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RJEvans
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« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2016, 10:54:44 pm »

If there is one thing I want this election is that the Latino vote is not properly sampled in the polls and they turnout in higher than expected numbers, potentially putting AZ and TX in play on election day.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2016, 11:14:31 pm »

Texas is tricky to poll due to its regional divides, large population, ethnic diversity, and lack of analogues in the behavior of other states. With the possible exception of Alaska, few states have so large a margin of error (4% for most states)... and a 4% lead for Trump in Texas is within the margin of error.

Although it is unlikely, Texas may be within reach of Hillary Clinton should Texas' educated white people vote like educated white people in other states and should Mexican-Americans vote like Mexican-Americans in California, Colorado, or New Mexico. This state has the largest number of potential Romney-to-Clinton voters (educated white voters and relatively-conservative Mexican-Americans). I expect the largest absolute swing from R to D in the Presidential election and one of the largest proportional swings from R to D in the Presidential election. Will that be enough to swing Texas? Only in a complete collapse of Donald Trump, which will make this Presidential election uninteresting.       
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #28 on: October 13, 2016, 11:17:39 pm »

If Texas is within 2% on election day, then we can talk about it being a realistic target for dems in 2020. If not, accept its relative closeness as a consequence of a literal fascist being the republican nominee, expect it to revert back to 57-43 R (TPV) in 2020, and check back in 15 years. Under no circumstance do I actually see TX voting for Clinton.
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Holmes
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« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2016, 11:35:19 pm »

Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Just because you're from there doesn't mean she should concentrate on it. I'd rather she fight for Arizona so I can be surrounded by Democratic states.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #30 on: October 13, 2016, 11:59:47 pm »

You'd think that Johnson would be doing better than that here.
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Lok
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« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2016, 12:53:37 am »

The libertarian collapse is real.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #32 on: October 14, 2016, 01:36:01 am »


If Texas is within 2% on election day, then we can talk about it being a realistic target for dems in 2020. If not, accept its relative closeness as a consequence of a literal fascist being the republican nominee, expect it to revert back to 57-43 R (TPV) in 2020, and check back in 15 years. Under no circumstance do I actually see TX voting for Clinton.

No, Hillary Clinton has to win Texas for it to be a legitimate chance for her or her Democratic successor (reasons of health?) to win it in 2020. The state still leans clearly R, and will revert to "safe R" in 2020 with some Republican other than Trump as the Presidential nominee.    Obviously she will much more likely win the Presidency without Texas than with it. She has to win about 400 other electoral votes to have a real chance to win Texas.

It is not Hillary Clinton who would win Texas; it would be Donald Trump who loses it.  Donald Trump has offended enough sensibilities that he could lose Texas.

Texas can go Democratic, but such suggests that America is undergoing an era of Democratic dominance as with the Second New deal. 
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🌈Rainbow Jihad
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« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2016, 01:45:48 am »

Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Not a terrible idea, actually.  Is Clinton spending any money in Texas?
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #34 on: October 14, 2016, 01:50:14 am »

Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Not a terrible idea, actually.  Is Clinton spending any money in Texas?

I don't think she has any infrastructure there, period.
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Noted Irishman
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« Reply #35 on: October 14, 2016, 03:17:55 am »

Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Not a terrible idea, actually.  Is Clinton spending any money in Texas?

I don't think she has any infrastructure there, period.

To be fair, she doesn't have any real infrastructure in AZ & GA either. The perpetual "Oh my God we might flirt with [GA/AZ/TX]" shtick is getting old for those of us in these states and who have hope. They're basically just issuing press releases and leaking to the press in the hopes they'll force Republicans to invest more in these states and make their spend more effective in the battlegrounds.
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« Reply #36 on: October 14, 2016, 04:36:05 am »

Whoa! Texas might not get called when the polls close...

We could see something like "NBC News characterizes Texas as too early to call, with Trump in the lead"
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Lok
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« Reply #37 on: October 14, 2016, 04:43:55 am »

Whoa! Texas might not get called when the polls close...

We could see something like "NBC News characterizes Texas as too early to call, with Trump in the lead"
It would be too close to call, rather than too early, because too early means they don't have enough information to say what the state of that race is yet.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #38 on: October 14, 2016, 05:58:05 am »

Clinton has a small number of offices in Texas. She opened one in El Paso a month or so ago. Even if she can't turn the state, it's good for Democrats to get some experience and voter data there in preparation for the future.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #39 on: October 14, 2016, 08:01:26 am »

Texas wasn't called at poll closing time in 2008. It won't be this time either. Hopefully the TX results will wake Republicans up.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #40 on: October 14, 2016, 11:20:03 am »

If Donald Trump has to defend Texas  -- it;s over.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #41 on: October 14, 2016, 04:18:51 pm »

Texas is tricky to poll due to its regional divides, large population, ethnic diversity, and lack of analogues in the behavior of other states. With the possible exception of Alaska, few states have so large a margin of error (4% for most states)... and a 4% lead for Trump in Texas is within the margin of error.

Although it is unlikely, Texas may be within reach of Hillary Clinton should Texas' educated white people vote like educated white people in other states and should Mexican-Americans vote like Mexican-Americans in California, Colorado, or New Mexico. This state has the largest number of potential Romney-to-Clinton voters (educated white voters and relatively-conservative Mexican-Americans). I expect the largest absolute swing from R to D in the Presidential election and one of the largest proportional swings from R to D in the Presidential election. Will that be enough to swing Texas? Only in a complete collapse of Donald Trump, which will make this Presidential election uninteresting.       

I have been saying for some time on this forum, that I believed Texas would be much closer than most expected this year.

Although I am not a Texan, I lived and worked there for four years in the Houston area, traveled and visited almost every part of the state, and Trump does not represent the values and beliefs of a large majority of Texans in most areas.

This is an "A" polling firm, and although Texas is one of the hardest states to poll, other than perhaps Florida, it does jive we what we have seen in other recent polls of Texas, combined with national polls.

Perhaps the worst news for Trump in the details of the poll is Trump is only up 6% in the 59 counties that include Metro Houston, all of East Texas, and parts of SouthEast Texas.

This appears to indicate a complete collapse in the Houston area, as I have mentioned on other threads, with Harris County swinging heavily Democratic by 10-15%, Fort Bend county moving into a likely D model, and the upper-middle Class Anglos in Montgomery County (The Woodlands) and also the new Exxon Corp HQ acting more like a 60-40 Republican County and less like an 80-20 R County.

Considering how overwhelmingly Republican, Anglo, and evangelical the vast majority of the remaining areas are outside of metro "H-Town", this is the only thing that could explain. I wish they posted a map of which counties were included so we can run the PVI, but Trump alone, appears to be turning metro Houston deep dark Red.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #42 on: October 14, 2016, 04:38:02 pm »

Having grown up in a suburb of Dallas, I'll be curious to see how the Dallas suburban counties (Collin, Denton, and Tarrant) go.  These are counties awash with highly educated white Republicans, suburban sprawl, and megachurches.  They give huge margins to Republican Presidential candidates, although Tarrant (Ft. Worth) not as much.  Tarrant has actually been a pretty good bellwether county the last several cycles.

I imagine there are a lot of women in these suburbs that are repulsed by Trump.  It's unlikely Clinton can win Tarrant County (Ft. Worth), but I wouldn't be surprised to see a margin under 5 points.  And I'll be interested to see just how much she can run up the score in Dallas County.
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AGA
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« Reply #43 on: October 14, 2016, 05:07:18 pm »

Wow, and Survey USA is a very highly rated pollster on 538.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #44 on: October 14, 2016, 07:14:23 pm »

Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Hmm, if Clinton wins Texas which populated counties could she flip? I would think Tarrant County and Fort Bend County.

Hays, Williamson, Nueces, maybe even Galveston

I would not be shocked if Williamson County (Round Rock) flips as a highly educated Anglo and Tech area (Dell) where McCain only garnered 55% in '08.

Also, I would add Bastrop County to the watchlist, as a primarily rural county East of Austin that is increasingly a retirement county and second homes within Austin Metro.

Atascosa County is likely another flip county, directly South of SA and heavily Latino.

Skeptical on Galveston County, but if Trump completely collapses in the upper-income Anglo burbs of Houston it might be enough to combine the City of Galveston on the Island and add in the retirees in South Island, but still you have the refinery workers of places like League City that might be more Trump type voters.....
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