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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AZ-Data Orbital: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: AZ-Data Orbital: Clinton +1  (Read 1907 times)
HillOfANight
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« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2016, 01:38:38 pm »

it's a republican pollster.

this poll has oversampled older people.

partyline...40% rep to 32% dem.

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide_LivePoll_Demographics_10_13.pdf

What's the correct amount of old people? From 2008 and 2012's exit polls, I'm guessing ~20%. Maybe lots of people have crossed the 65% mark?

Anyway, I guess there is a reason Trump/Pence keep coming back to Arizona.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2016, 01:40:08 pm »

Interesting that Clinton's lead seems to come from her consolidating the vote, rather than Trump bleeding.
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voter1993
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« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2016, 01:43:56 pm »

Why do we care what a crap pollster thinks? every major pollster has trump ahead by 4-6 points, i don't see clinton winning, i didn't know there were so many crooked hillary fans on here jeez.
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Arch
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« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2016, 01:45:45 pm »

Why do we care what a crap pollster thinks? every major pollster has trump ahead by 4-6 points, i don't see clinton winning, i didn't know there were so many crooked hillary fans on here jeez.

LOL. Not even Gravis/Breitbart, bruh.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #29 on: October 14, 2016, 01:46:45 pm »

Why do we care what a crap pollster thinks? every major pollster has trump ahead by 4-6 points, i don't see clinton winning, i didn't know there were so many crooked hillary fans on here jeez.

LOL. Not even Gravis/Breitbart, bruh.

in all fairness i think/hope he means arizona.
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Arch
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« Reply #30 on: October 14, 2016, 01:54:45 pm »

Why do we care what a crap pollster thinks? every major pollster has trump ahead by 4-6 points, i don't see clinton winning, i didn't know there were so many crooked hillary fans on here jeez.

LOL. Not even Gravis/Breitbart, bruh.

in all fairness i think/hope he means arizona.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html

Not even.
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dspNY
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« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2016, 02:04:23 pm »

Why do we care what a crap pollster thinks? every major pollster has trump ahead by 4-6 points, i don't see clinton winning, i didn't know there were so many crooked hillary fans on here jeez.

Data Orbital: Clinton +1
Emerson: Clinton +2 (and they've got a heavy GOP lean this cycle)
OH Predictive Insights: Tie
Insights West: Trump +4
NBC/WSJ: Trump +2

It's VERY close in AZ
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Brittain33
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« Reply #32 on: October 14, 2016, 02:21:39 pm »

The poll appears to significantly under-represent the heavily Latino and Democratic 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts fwiw.

Turnout in those districts has always been abysmal...
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2016, 03:14:41 pm »

This is definetely a bigger swing state than Pennsylvania. She should at least make an effort in getting 1 or 2 House seats here
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yeah_93
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« Reply #34 on: October 14, 2016, 03:26:48 pm »

Only overperforming LBJ by 2 points? Crooked $h*tlery is a joke.

You are just as awful as the people you are mocking. If Hillary were to win in a landslide of the magnitude of LBJ's, she wouldn't be winning AZ by a single point.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #35 on: October 14, 2016, 03:29:42 pm »

You are just as awful as the people you are mocking. If Hillary were to win in a landslide of the magnitude of LBJ's, she wouldn't be winning AZ by a single point.

something like that couldn't happen today anyway.

2008 was the furthest possible landslide at that moment i think.
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #36 on: October 14, 2016, 03:30:36 pm »

Only overperforming LBJ by 2 points? Crooked $h*tlery is a joke.

You are just as awful as the people you are mocking. If Hillary were to win in a landslide of the magnitude of LBJ's, she wouldn't be winning AZ by a single point.

Clearly you didn't get my joke. LBJ lost AZ by 1 point. (Of course, Goldwater was from AZ, so that mostly explains it. Still it was a joke.)
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yeah_93
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« Reply #37 on: October 14, 2016, 03:39:15 pm »

Only overperforming LBJ by 2 points? Crooked $h*tlery is a joke.

You are just as awful as the people you are mocking. If Hillary were to win in a landslide of the magnitude of LBJ's, she wouldn't be winning AZ by a single point.

Clearly you didn't get my joke. LBJ lost AZ by 1 point. (Of course, Goldwater was from AZ, so that mostly explains it. Still it was a joke.)
Seemed to me like a joke from a hack to make fun of people who say she's a bad candidate. She's bad IMO, but Trump's worse, hence these numbers.
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #38 on: October 14, 2016, 03:57:50 pm »

Only overperforming LBJ by 2 points? Crooked $h*tlery is a joke.

You are just as awful as the people you are mocking. If Hillary were to win in a landslide of the magnitude of LBJ's, she wouldn't be winning AZ by a single point.

Clearly you didn't get my joke. LBJ lost AZ by 1 point. (Of course, Goldwater was from AZ, so that mostly explains it. Still it was a joke.)
Seemed to me like a joke from a hack to make fun of people who say she's a bad candidate. She's bad IMO, but Trump's worse, hence these numbers.

I'm not making fun of people who say that she's a bad candidate, I'm making fun of people who think that she's the worst possible candidate for Democrats. If she were as abysmal as people say she is, she'd be losing, or maybe even with Trump, not slightly ahead in a state like Arizona.
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Badger
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« Reply #39 on: October 14, 2016, 07:58:32 pm »

Why do we care what a crap pollster thinks? every major pollster has trump ahead by 4-6 points, i don't see clinton winning, i didn't know there were so many crooked hillary fans on here jeez.

Oh great. Another one. Roll Eyes
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #40 on: October 14, 2016, 08:01:37 pm »

State is not competitive, those undecideds are going to break for Trump. I mean come on, if you haven't decided against Trump now, what's going to convince you?

I think you've got this reversed. If normally GOP voters aren't soold to Trump by now? they've got serious reservations about handing the Oval Office keys to Trump and will vote accordingly (albeit with their noses tightly held).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #41 on: October 14, 2016, 08:15:10 pm »

State is not competitive, those undecideds are going to break for Trump. I mean come on, if you haven't decided against Trump now, what's going to convince you?

I think you've got this reversed. If normally GOP voters aren't soold to Trump by now? they've got serious reservations about handing the Oval Office keys to Trump and will vote accordingly (albeit with their noses tightly held).

Completely agreed.  Based on favorability trends, undecideds seem more likely to break for Clinton than Trump.  Clinton is unpopular, but Trump is much more unpopular (in the latest Gallup survey, she's at -14 while he's at -34).  The same argument is supported by a tidbit from PPP's recent Florida poll:

Quote
One fact from our FL poll that helps explain why it will be so hard for Trump to come back: his favorability with undecideds is literally 0

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/787030535189258240
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #42 on: October 14, 2016, 08:50:50 pm »

From a Republican pollster? This might indicate a Trump collapse.

We are seeing Texas get close. Why not Arizona? Only Arizona is not as R as Texas.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #43 on: October 14, 2016, 09:28:12 pm »

Even we just throw this junk Republican poll into the hopper, of recent polls it does appear to indicate that Clinton is leading.

Look back at the recent Emerson Poll from 10/2-10/4 that was C +2 weighted for C +5.

Even Marist back from 9/6-9/8 showed Trump only up +2, prior to Clinton's dramatic growth in national polling numbers.

This Republican outfit and their LV screen is likely underestimating the Latino and Millennial voter, and over estimating the elderly Anglo vote as part of their screen.

We will see what voters actually do  in November, but I strongly suspect the Latino Millennials are significantly underestimated, and will now call the state for C +2 (Bold prediction).

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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #44 on: October 15, 2016, 01:40:08 am »

We definitely need an Arizona gif, lol.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #45 on: October 15, 2016, 04:33:16 am »

Amazing. Go Hillary, 350+ electoral votes are within reach now.
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