AZ-Data Orbital: Clinton +1
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Author Topic: AZ-Data Orbital: Clinton +1  (Read 2338 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: October 14, 2016, 01:01:33 PM »
« edited: October 14, 2016, 01:09:12 PM by HillOfANight »
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/786988245380898816
http://us12.campaign-archive2.com/?u=5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6&id=287ad48d38
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide_LivePoll_Demographics_10_13.pdf

10/11-10/12

Trump 42 (40)
Clinton 43 (38)
Johnson 5 (9)
Undecided 6 (11)
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2016, 01:02:09 PM »
Sun belt?

more like sun-burn-belt.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 01:02:41 PM »
Nice poll!
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2016, 01:03:27 PM »
Ouch..Clinton stalling. Couldnt even get the same margin as Bill in '96
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2016, 01:04:14 PM »
State is not competitive, those undecideds are going to break for Trump. I mean come on, if you haven't decided against Trump now, what's going to convince you?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2016, 01:09:34 PM »
Quote from: Oh Hill Yes on October 14, 2016, 01:04:14 PM
State is not competitive, those undecideds are going to break for Trump. I mean come on, if you haven't decided against Trump now, what's going to convince you?

They decide not to vote? Also most undecideds broke against Trump in the primary.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2016, 01:10:36 PM »
The poll appears to significantly under-represent the heavily Latino and Democratic 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts fwiw.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2016, 01:10:51 PM »
Only overperforming LBJ by 2 points? Crooked $h*tlery is a joke.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2016, 01:11:26 PM »
Quote from: Oh Hill Yes on October 14, 2016, 01:04:14 PM
State is not competitive, those undecideds are going to break for Trump. I mean come on, if you haven't decided against Trump now, what's going to convince you?
On bad days, that's what I keep thinking too. On good days, I'm hoping that the fact that they're not willing to commit to Trump now means that they deep down know that he's a freaking lunatic and hence eeither won't vote for him or not show up at all.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2016, 01:11:26 PM »
noting...some reps have re-endorsed....mccain hasn't.

i think he is able to read polls.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2016, 01:12:55 PM »
This is probably Clinton's best shot to win a state that Obama never won.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2016, 01:13:42 PM »
i mean, if texas is within 4 makes sense that she would be tied or ahead in arizona. i think trump needs another rally with sheriff joe down there to shore up his base :-)
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2016, 01:14:15 PM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on October 14, 2016, 01:11:26 PM
Quote from: Oh Hill Yes on October 14, 2016, 01:04:14 PM
State is not competitive, those undecideds are going to break for Trump. I mean come on, if you haven't decided against Trump now, what's going to convince you?
On bad days, that's what I keep thinking too. On good days, I'm hoping that the fact that they're not willing to commit to Trump now means that they deep down know that he's a freaking lunatic and hence eeither won't vote for him or not show up at all.

It is also worth noting the Latino Millennials are in general much less enthused in voting this November than most other Demographic groups, and that is likely the case in Arizona as elsewhere.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2016, 01:14:42 PM »
SWEET JUMPIN......!!!!!!!!....
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2016, 01:17:01 PM »
if getting trashtalked by a major candidate for over a year isn't enough to get you voting, you are an ally of your own fate.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2016, 01:20:58 PM »
I don't think Hillary will win there, but the fact that this is a concrete possibility is still beautiful to see.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2016, 01:21:41 PM »
Come on AZ! Take it home!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2016, 01:22:58 PM »
What's this pollster's track record?  I don't see them in 538's list.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2016, 01:23:58 PM »

I think StatesPoll is hating life right about now.
Woo-Hoo !
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2016, 01:24:43 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on October 14, 2016, 01:10:36 PM
The poll appears to significantly under-represent the heavily Latino and Democratic 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts fwiw.
turnout?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2016, 01:27:24 PM »
it's a republican pollster.

this poll has oversampled older people.

partyline...40% rep to 32% dem.

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide_LivePoll_Demographics_10_13.pdf
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2016, 01:31:06 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on October 14, 2016, 01:10:36 PM
The poll appears to significantly under-represent the heavily Latino and Democratic 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts fwiw.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2012
I compared it to this. In 2012, AZ-3 was 8%, and it's 8% in this poll. AZ-7 was 6%, and it's 6% in this poll.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2016, 01:32:00 PM »

You're telling me that a Republican pollster has HRC leading in AZ???
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2016, 01:33:22 PM »
Quote from: Arch on October 14, 2016, 01:32:00 PM

You're telling me that a Republican pollster has HRC leading in AZ???

Political Operative, President & Data Strategist at @Data_Orbital. Catholic. Husband. Father. Former Political Director @AZGOP #GOP
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2016, 01:38:38 PM »

What's the correct amount of old people? From 2008 and 2012's exit polls, I'm guessing ~20%. Maybe lots of people have crossed the 65% mark?

Anyway, I guess there is a reason Trump/Pence keep coming back to Arizona.
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