AZ-Data Orbital: Clinton +1

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/786988245380898816
http://us12.campaign-archive2.com/?u=5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6&id=287ad48d38
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide_LivePoll_Demographics_10_13.pdf

10/11-10/12

Trump 42 (40)
Clinton 43 (38)
Johnson 5 (9)
Undecided 6 (11)

[HillOfANight]

The poll appears to significantly under-represent the heavily Latino and Democratic 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts fwiw.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2012
I compared it to this. In 2012, AZ-3 was 8%, and it's 8% in this poll. AZ-7 was 6%, and it's 6% in this poll.

[HillOfANight]

it's a republican pollster.

this poll has oversampled older people.

partyline...40% rep to 32% dem.

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide_LivePoll_Demographics_10_13.pdf

What's the correct amount of old people? From 2008 and 2012's exit polls, I'm guessing ~20%. Maybe lots of people have crossed the 65% mark?

Anyway, I guess there is a reason Trump/Pence keep coming back to Arizona.