AZ-Data Orbital: Clinton +1

[NOVA Green]

The poll appears to significantly under-represent the heavily Latino and Democratic 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts fwiw.

[NOVA Green]

State is not competitive, those undecideds are going to break for Trump. I mean come on, if you haven't decided against Trump now, what's going to convince you?

On bad days, that's what I keep thinking too. On good days, I'm hoping that the fact that they're not willing to commit to Trump now means that they deep down know that he's a freaking lunatic and hence eeither won't vote for him or not show up at all.

It is also worth noting the Latino Millennials are in general much less enthused in voting this November than most other Demographic groups, and that is likely the case in Arizona as elsewhere.

[NOVA Green]

Even we just throw this junk Republican poll into the hopper, of recent polls it does appear to indicate that Clinton is leading.

Look back at the recent Emerson Poll from 10/2-10/4 that was C +2 weighted for C +5.

Even Marist back from 9/6-9/8 showed Trump only up +2, prior to Clinton's dramatic growth in national polling numbers.

This Republican outfit and their LV screen is likely underestimating the Latino and Millennial voter, and over estimating the elderly Anglo vote as part of their screen.

We will see what voters actually do  in November, but I strongly suspect the Latino Millennials are significantly underestimated, and will now call the state for C +2 (Bold prediction).