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| | |-+  Hack Fraud Nate Silver Argues New Hampshire is Most Vunerable Freiwal State
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Author Topic: Hack Fraud Nate Silver Argues New Hampshire is Most Vunerable Freiwal State  (Read 1423 times)
Devout Centrist
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« on: October 14, 2016, 02:17:04 pm »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-watch-new-hampshire-for-signs-of-a-trump-comeback/

Sad!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2016, 02:18:17 pm »

i mean probably not but even if it is that speaks volumes about how tough the feriwall is.
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Never Beto
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 02:20:32 pm »

I've said it's whiteness is concerning. White women for Hillary have to outvote white men for Trump in the state and that could be a tall order.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2016, 02:21:39 pm »

He's 100% right though. The only 270 EV states for Clinton that is not at least 98.7% sure to go for Clinton yet are New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. New Hampshire is around 97% sure, while Pennsylvania is 98% sure.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2016, 02:22:36 pm »

Silver's mathematical model is robust but most 538 articles are garbage clickbait, especially during election season. They had an article yesterday detailing how McMuffin could become president
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ursulahx
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2016, 02:32:56 pm »

Silver's mathematical model is robust but most 538 articles are garbage clickbait, especially during election season.

*Applause*

Why aren't more people realising this obvious truth? (Although I have my doubts about the model as well.)
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2016, 02:34:27 pm »

That could be, but that just means that Trump has lost the election, because NH is gone for him.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2016, 02:37:28 pm »

The sad thing is that when this election is over and Clinton wins NH by 7-11 points, people will just say that Trump was a "bad fit" for NH and that Kasich would have easily beaten Clinton in NH.
At this rate, Breitbart's gonna dominate the GOP and argue to repeal the 19th amendment.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2016, 02:40:40 pm »

To be fair, the only way Trump can win is through NH. He's not winning Pennsylvania.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2016, 02:58:57 pm »

What a goddamn idiot.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2016, 03:37:40 pm »

What's up with these crap titles? The state of this board is so sad.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2016, 03:48:37 pm »

What's up with these crap titles? The state of this board is so sad.
I'm doing a poor attempt at exaggerated humor.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2016, 03:52:08 pm »

What's up with these crap titles? The state of this board is so sad.
I'm doing a poor attempt at exaggerated humor.
There are people on this forum who would have used this title seriously.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2016, 03:53:53 pm »

i don't blame silver...he has popularized statistics and he needs to fill this super-blog on a daily basis and never ever overlook even one trend.

NH may be more volatile than most other states....trump just won't win it anyway.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2016, 04:14:52 pm »

Silver's mathematical model is robust but most 538 articles are garbage clickbait, especially during election season.

*Applause*

Why aren't more people realising this obvious truth? (Although I have my doubts about the model as well.)

It does seem to be more volatile this time around but that could just be due to high number of undecideds
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mark_twain
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2016, 04:16:34 pm »

So basically the article is saying that NH is a more "elastic" state, and therefore Clinton's lead is less certain there.

Well, then with 4 electoral votes, and assuming Trump wins NH (in the remote case that he does), how is Trump going to capture NV, NC and FL, which have now entered Clinton's control, with 6, 15 and 29 electoral votes?

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2016, 04:19:42 pm »

trump's collection of possible small states (iowa, nevada, NH) or single state votes (maine) is only accounting for something, if he gets florida AND north carolina AND holds utah......and even then he needs OH and THEN it becomes even close enough for that stuff to matter.

highly unrealistic.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2016, 04:35:28 pm »

I didn't read the article, but if I look at the "Chance of winning" percentages in the "Polls-Plus Forcast" model, New Hampshire's numbers are "Clinton 80.6%" and "trump 19.4%"
Out of all the states in the 272 Firewall, this (N.H.) is the lowest percentage for Hillary.

So what Nate is saying is just simply this. That according to his numbers 80.6% is the lowest.
BUT IT IS STILL A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY (80.6%) that Clinton will win NH.
It seems that some people are making to big of a fuss about this whole thing (again I did not read the article).
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #18 on: December 18, 2018, 04:50:57 pm »

Ouch! Surely people have learned their lesson from 2016 and the 2020 board won’t be replete with "Trump is more likely to win NH/NV than WI/MI/PA" hottakes, right? Right? Right?

Haha, who am I kidding.
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Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
Jalawest2
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« Reply #19 on: December 18, 2018, 06:27:03 pm »

Ouch! Surely people have learned their lesson from 2016 and the 2020 board won’t be replete with "Trump is more likely to win NH/NV than WI/MI/PA" hottakes, right? Right? Right?

Haha, who am I kidding.
It went for Clinton by less than half a point. Stop pretending it is Safe D.
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WI is Safe D
Beef
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« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2018, 01:18:27 am »

Ouch! Surely people have learned their lesson from 2016 and the 2020 board won’t be replete with "Trump is more likely to win NH/NV than WI/MI/PA" hottakes, right? Right? Right?

Haha, who am I kidding.
It went for Clinton by less than half a point. Stop pretending it is Safe D.

NH is Safe D, WI is Safe R, and Trump's path to reelection goes through Connecticut.
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2018, 01:46:44 am »

So ironically enough; NH was the only FREIWAL state that didn't break?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #22 on: December 31, 2018, 03:34:48 am »

So ironically enough; NH was the only FREIWAL state that didn't break?

RIP the other freiwal states
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