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| | | | |-+  OH/IA/PA/IN Times-Picayune/Lucid: Clinton +~5 in OH/IA/PA, Trump +10 in IN
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Author Topic: OH/IA/PA/IN Times-Picayune/Lucid: Clinton +~5 in OH/IA/PA, Trump +10 in IN  (Read 1497 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: October 14, 2016, 03:32:01 pm »

I was scrolling here and noticed these. Next week they'll have FL/GA/NC/VA.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/
https://luc.id/2016/10/14/battleground-state-polls/

http://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Battleground-Pennsylvania-Methodology.pdf
http://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Battleground-Indiana-Methodology.pdf
http://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Battleground-Ohio-Methodology.pdf
http://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Battleground-Iowa-Methodology.pdf

Ohio
Clinton 44
Trump 39
Johnson 7

Iowa
Clinton 42
Trump 36
Johnson 10

Pennsylvania
Clinton 45
Trump 39
Johnson 7

Indiana
Clinton 36
Trump 45
Johnson 10
« Last Edit: October 14, 2016, 03:34:49 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2016, 03:34:31 pm »

Underwhelming in PA, otherwise seems about right.
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 03:35:47 pm »

Underwhelming in PA, otherwise seems about right.

Probably too low in PA, too high in IA
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2016, 03:37:09 pm »

Stick to the national tracker, Lucky Pickle Polling.  No way is the margin the same in PA and OH.  OH doesn't have the high energy Philadelphia area.
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matthew27
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2016, 03:37:41 pm »

Overall a good poll. A little low in PA.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2016, 03:40:28 pm »

Underwhelming in PA, otherwise seems about right.
Hillary +8 in IA doesn't seem 'about right' to me.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2016, 03:41:30 pm »

Seems a bit Trump friendly in IN/PA, a bit Clinton friendly in IA.
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2016, 03:42:16 pm »

Underwhelming in PA, otherwise seems about right.
Hillary +8 in IA doesn't seem 'about right' to me.

It's +6, and it's certainly consistent with her being at +7/8 nationwide.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2016, 03:45:31 pm »

Underwhelming in PA, otherwise seems about right.
Hillary +8 in IA doesn't seem 'about right' to me.

It's +6, and it's certainly consistent with her being at +7/8 nationwide.
Welp, I don't know how to count.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2016, 03:52:54 pm »


I'll take it!

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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2016, 04:34:19 pm »

"A bit" Clinton friendly in IA? lol
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2016, 05:05:28 pm »

I'll take it!
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xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2016, 05:07:05 pm »

"A bit" Clinton friendly in IA? lol

If she's up by 7 nationally, she's probably ahead in Iowa.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2016, 05:14:19 pm »

Trump +10 seems more likely than the Monmouth poll that has us as a tossup.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2016, 05:15:33 pm »

"A bit" Clinton friendly in IA? lol

If she's up by 7 nationally, she's probably ahead in Iowa.

Yeah, but by 6? Almost certainly not.

Then again, the PA poll looks "a bit" too Trump friendly as well. Tongue
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2016, 05:18:49 pm »

Trump +10 seems more likely than the Monmouth poll that has us as a tossup.

The Monmouth poll was Trump +4.   Average them (what a concept Smiley ) and it's +7, which sounds reasonable.
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2016, 07:30:39 pm »

I told you guys "angry sexist Indiana men" is a real phenomenon. Donald Trump is ahead by 10 points in Indiana despite the fact that he is so far behind nationwide. Amazing!

Indiana is Arkansas 2.0. Indiana is a safe R state.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2016, 07:34:49 pm »

Trump +10 seems more likely than the Monmouth poll that has us as a tossup.

Monmouth is closer to WTHR/HPI poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2016, 09:21:34 pm »

Donald Trump may have suddenly made Iowa a bad match for him. He may have been making many states bad matches for him.

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