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Author Topic: NV-JMC Analytics (R): Clinton +2  (Read 1506 times)
BoAtlantis
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« on: October 15, 2016, 08:40:30 am »

http://www.lasvegasnow.com/news/nvdebate-tight-race-between-clinton-and-trump
« Last Edit: October 15, 2016, 03:17:25 pm by BoAtlantis »Logged
BundouYMB
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2016, 08:42:38 am »

Poll was conducted by JMC Analytics. You should put that in the title.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2016, 08:43:25 am »

Heck underperforming Trump by 3? Angry Trump supporters?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2016, 08:47:41 am »

"69% of the phone numbers were landlines and 31% of the phone numbers were cell phones."

Most good pollsters split landlines and cell phones. 70-30% methodology will probably underestimate Democrats. I can see why this pollster is Republican-leaning.
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2016, 08:51:10 am »

Nevada is certainly Lean D at worst
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2016, 09:09:19 am »

Nevada is certainly Lean D at worst

with +2% leads? and you don't consider about turnouts?

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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2016, 09:11:12 am »

Nevada is certainly Lean D at worst

with +2% leads? and you don't consider about turnouts?



Trump has not led a Nevada poll since the first debate. Lean Dem
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2016, 09:13:18 am »

Heck underperforming Trump by 3? Angry Trump supporters?

Nevada's own Republican committeewoman has urged Trump supporters to not vote for "traitors".
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2016, 09:13:51 am »

Heck underperforming Trump by 3? Angry Trump supporters?

My thought too. What the Heck?
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dspNY
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2016, 09:15:42 am »

Here are all the Nevada polls since the first debate (not including the ipsos or google consumer survey or UPI nonsense)

This one: Clinton +2 from a Repub pollster
Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +6
PPP: Clinton +4
Clarity Campaign Labs: Tie
Emerson: Tie
Suffolk: Clinton +6
Hart Research: Clinton +3
Bendixen and Amandi: Clinton +1

Lean Dem
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2016, 09:16:16 am »

Heck underperforming Trump by 3? Angry Trump supporters?

My thought too. What the Heck?

Trump will lose Nevada and take Heck down with him. Couldn't ask for anything more!
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2016, 09:42:03 am »

Here are all the Nevada polls since the first debate (not including the ipsos or google consumer survey or UPI nonsense)

This one: Clinton +2 from a Repub pollster
Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +6
PPP: Clinton +4
Clarity Campaign Labs: Tie
Emerson: Tie
Suffolk: Clinton +6
Hart Research: Clinton +3
Bendixen and Amandi: Clinton +1

Lean Dem
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2016, 10:43:32 am »

White
Clinton 35
Trump 51

Black
Clinton 59
Trump 19

Hispanic
Clinton 59
Trump 18

Washoe
Clinton 40
Trump 45
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2016, 10:47:54 am »

lol okay Hispanics are going more for Clinton than blacks okay
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2016, 10:55:28 am »

lol okay Hispanics are going more for Clinton than blacks okay

Blacks and Hispanics are two times as more undecided than Whites. I think we know where most of those folks will end up.
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Wulfric
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2016, 11:26:51 am »

lol okay Hispanics are going more for Clinton than blacks okay
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2016, 11:28:32 am »

Trump is not getting 19% of blacks here. NV is safe for Hillary.
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Snek!
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2016, 11:31:47 am »

Trump is not getting 19% of blacks here. NV is safe for Hillary.

Either that or there is some sort of racially aspirational thing like Uncle Ruckus talked about on the Boondocks.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2016, 11:50:26 am »

Trump is not getting 19% of blacks here. NV is safe for Hillary.

Nevada is only 9.3% African-American.  VAP is even less than that.  Assuming Trump receives 0% of the black vote, Trump would only lose 1.7 points - and that assumes turnout will be 9.3% African-American.  It will be less than that, and some African-Americans will vote Trump.

So MAYBE Trump's numbers are off by a point because of the allegedly high black percentage.  Hardly enough to make NV safe for Hillary.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2016, 11:53:34 am »

Trump is not getting 19% of blacks here. NV is safe for Hillary.

Nevada is only 9.3% African-American.  VAP is even less than that.  Assuming Trump receives 0% of the black vote, Trump would only lose 1.7 points - and that assumes turnout will be 9.3% African-American.  It will be less than that, and some African-Americans will vote Trump.

So MAYBE Trump's numbers are off by a point because of the allegedly high black percentage.  Hardly enough to make NV safe for Hillary.

Well, I could also point out that Hillary is likely to get much more than 58% of the Latino vote, but I've talked about NV enough. I called it for Hillary from the beginning, and I'm standing by that call.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2016, 12:00:51 pm »

Trump is not getting 19% of blacks here. NV is safe for Hillary.

NV isn't safe because it's one state where Hillary's numbers could get dragged down below Trump's, due to third party support. I could see Trump beating Hillary with a result like 46-45.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2016, 12:13:40 pm »

So CCM is overperforming Hillary by 3 points? That's glorious news, unless this poll is just random junk.
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