Franklin Pierce U/Boston Herald: Clinton +5 (4-way)

[psychprofessor]

yes, this is totally a tight race when we're talking about texas being in low single digits; arizona and georgia potentially flipping; the independent potentially winning utah; florida and north carolina voting further left than 2012; virginia and colorado gone for the republicans; pennsylvania and new hampshire in double digit holes for the republican - yeah, totally a tight race right now.

[voter1993]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

More reputable polls (ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ) show Clinton with 47 and 48% in a four way race and 50%+ in a head-to-head with almost the entire electorate decided

yes, i don't believe that NBC poll unless i see more polls this week that have double digit leads, it looks more likely it is a 3-5 point race.

I think you're kidding yourself. This is 6-8% nationally at this point.

The race is very volatile, i'll be waiting for more, ABC had 4 points, and the new boston herald has 5 points. If it is more than 6 we will see arizona georgia missouri flip i'll be waiting.

Which is why you have aggregates. A 6-8 national lead will give you weird outliers ... I don't think this is Clinton +10, despite wanting it and thinking it should be,  but if you factor in everything... I don't see how anyone could consider this race to be as close as you're insisting. Plus, is it really that volatile overall? There have been three significant periods of volatility, most recently immediately after the RNC then after Clinton's health scare. Otherwise outside of the usual noises and slight ups and downs, the race has been pretty stable. It's just that people remember those volatile periods.

true, it will be upsetting seeing her win, she doesn't deserve it. I hope trump does well in this debate and turns the page we have 3 weeks to go and anything can happen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

More reputable polls (ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ) show Clinton with 47 and 48% in a four way race and 50%+ in a head-to-head with almost the entire electorate decided

yes, i don't believe that NBC poll unless i see more polls this week that have double digit leads, it looks more likely it is a 3-5 point race.

I think you're kidding yourself. This is 6-8% nationally at this point.

The race is very volatile, i'll be waiting for more, ABC had 4 points, and the new boston herald has 5 points. If it is more than 6 we will see arizona georgia missouri flip i'll be waiting.

Which is why you have aggregates. A 6-8 national lead will give you weird outliers ... I don't think this is Clinton +10, despite wanting it and thinking it should be,  but if you factor in everything... I don't see how anyone could consider this race to be as close as you're insisting. Plus, is it really that volatile overall? There have been three significant periods of volatility, most recently immediately after the RNC then after Clinton's health scare. Otherwise outside of the usual noises and slight ups and downs, the race has been pretty stable. It's just that people remember those volatile periods.

true, it will be upsetting seeing her win, she doesn't deserve it. I hope trump does well in this debate and turns the page we have 3 weeks to go and anything can happen.

Well, we'll just have to agree to violently disagree

[GeorgiaModerate]

The race is very volatile, i'll be waiting for more, ABC had 4 points, and the new boston herald has 5 points. If it is more than 6 we will see arizona georgia missouri flip i'll be waiting.

Yes, and also in the last few days NBC/WSJ had Clinton +10/11, while Fox had Clinton +8/+7.  The truth is most likely somewhere in the middle.  Don't cherry pick just the polls at one end of the range -- or if you do, don't claim that it's an objective picture.  Look at the averages.

[ProudModerate2]

Slightly on the low-end.
I see Hillary right now at approx. +7 nationally.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i can live with bullet-proof "low ends"....less with maybe inflated +10/11s.

but tomorrow we will be more knowledgeable...