CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke

[Mallow]

B-b-b-but Trump's strength in NV! Muh casino/resort effect! I thought anything who suggested that NV isn't a toss-up is delusional!!

Trump was never going to win NV. It's part of Hillary's freiwal. I'll be ready for those accolades on November 9th.

Completely agree. NV and CO are both out of reach for Trump (and most Republicans) these days.

[dspNY]

B-b-b-but Trump's strength in NV! Muh casino/resort effect! I thought anything who suggested that NV isn't a toss-up is delusional!!

Trump was never going to win NV. It's part of Hillary's freiwal. I'll be ready for those accolades on November 9th.

With Colorado Likely D, Clinton building an edge in Nevada cripples the Romney + IA + OH + NV + NH + ME-2 path for Trump and requires him to win PA or WI (Michigan is out of play)

[mencken]

B-b-b-but Trump's strength in NV! Muh casino/resort effect! I thought anything who suggested that NV isn't a toss-up is delusional!!

Trump was never going to win NV. It's part of Hillary's freiwal. I'll be ready for those accolades on November 9th.

I do not think anyone suggested that NV would be 6 points to the right of the nation. This YouGov poll is consistent with the idea that NV would be roughly similar to the nation as a whole.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Completely agree. NV and CO are both out of reach for Trump (and most Republicans) these days.

if trump crashes completely...maybe miss martinez is going to try it in 4 years.

[dspNY]

The Senate race in Nevada is tied 39 apiece.

Another interesting data point: In NV, 39% of voters have been contacted by the Clinton campaign compared to 30% for the Trump campaign. This is an indication of ground game strength (Clinton will destroy him in GOTV)

Demographics: 69W/8B/17H

[Gustaf]

B-b-b-but Trump's strength in NV! Muh casino/resort effect! I thought anything who suggested that NV isn't a toss-up is delusional!!

Trump was never going to win NV. It's part of Hillary's freiwal. I'll be ready for those accolades on November 9th.

With Colorado Likely D, Clinton building an edge in Nevada cripples the Romney + IA + OH + NV + NH + ME-2 path for Trump and requires him to win PA or WI (Michigan is out of play)

I think Clinton totally dominating NH is even more crippling to that path.

[rafta_rafta]

Any chance Romney will endorse McMuffin?

HRC should send some money to his campaign

[pbrower2a]

Again, this is not useless. One can get a good idea of where the race stands in each battleground state using this information, and a couple other assumptions.

I calculated margins for each state using the following two assumptions:
1. The battleground states will have the same total turnout proportions (relative to one another) as they had in 2012.
2. The battleground states will have margins relative to each other (and third-party voting percentages) as described by 538's polls-plus model.

Neither of these assumptions is perfect, obviously, but they're likely good approximations. Given this, here's what we get for the margins in each battleground state...
AZ: D+2 (47%/45%)
CO: D+9 (50%/41%)
FL: D+6 (50%/44%)
GA: R+2 (46%/48%)
IA: D+4 (52%/48%)
MI: D+11 (51%/40%)
NV: D+6 (49%/43%)
NH: D+9 (50%/41%)
NC: D+5 (52%/47%)
OH: D+4 (48%/44%)
PA: D+9 (51%/42%)
VA: D+10 (51%/41%)
WI: D+10 (51%/41%)


EDIT: I see that they did a separate NV poll, and found a margin of D+6, which aligns well with my above estimation.

This looks like Obama 2008, except trading Indiana for Arizona.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mallow's numbers suggest that this poll is a tad too optimistic, but the NV one is believable. I don't buy that NV is more Republican than the country as a whole this year.

[Mallow]

IceSpear's numbers suggest that this poll is a tad too optimistic, but the NV one is believable. I don't buy that NV is more Republican than the country as a whole this year.

(Assuming you're talking about my post... if not, please disregard) Not all Pennsylvania Democrats are the same.

[Antonio the Sixth]

IceSpear's numbers suggest that this poll is a tad too optimistic, but the NV one is believable. I don't buy that NV is more Republican than the country as a whole this year.

(Assuming you're talking about my post... if not, please disregard) Not all Pennsylvania Democrats are the same.

Oh LOL, my bad.

[ProudModerate2]

Looking good in NV!

[Badger]

I also don't buy that Hillary's only getting 19% of the female vote in Utah. The Monmouth poll had her at 31%. I think the topline result of 20% is lowballing her by a lot.

This. After Obama got over a third of the vote against McCain, and a quarter of the vote against Romney himself, 20% is laughable.

Truth be told, with Democrats having even a chance of winning to push turnout, can anyone advise why Clinton couldn't realistically match or slightly exceed Obama's 08 %? Genuine question.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Utah President by YouGov on 2016-10-14

Summary: D: 20%, R: 37%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Nevada President by YouGov on 2016-10-14

Summary: D: 46%, R: 40%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details