ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4

[ag]

I am afraid, this is exactly where the race is. Not at all comfortable.

[OneJ]

Plus, Trump will lose nonwhite voters by a worse margin than Romney...his vote share would look something like this if he wins whites by 10, assuming the minor parties get 6% of the vote

Whites: Trump 52, Clinton 42 (72%)
African-Americans: Clinton 86, Trump 8 (12%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70, Trump 24 (11%)
Other: Clinton 65, Trump 29 (5%)

Using those percentages, Clinton would win by 10

Under this group, a respectable Latino politics group projected that Hillary's vote share from Latinos would be between 76.5% and 87.5%. I just wonder what turnout would be like.

[Fusionmunster]

I am afraid, this is exactly where the race is. Not at all comfortable.

We've got YouGov and SurveyMonkey tomorrow and Marist on Monday to hopefully disprove that.

[ApatheticAustrian]

surveymonkey is too bullish on hillary in my opinion.

i prefer a water-tight, super-selected poll like this, which shows many "strange" crosstabs and still has a clear clinton lead.

[BoAtlantis]

One positive I took away from this poll for Democrats is that 6% of Trump supporters say they could change mind; 3% for Hillary supporters.

[Gass3268]

I am afraid, this is exactly where the race is. Not at all comfortable.

We've got YouGov and SurveyMonkey tomorrow and Marist on Monday to hopefully disprove that.

Monmouth too

[politicallefty]

Most of the crosstabs suggest a much better topline number, but it is what it is I suppose. If I only saw the college-educated white number, I would have guessed a 10-point lead. The drop in enthusiasm among Trump supporters is a good thing though.

What really sticks out to me is the collapse of the gender gap compared to their previous poll. I'm not sure how you go from a 38-point gender gap to an 8-point one in just three weeks.

I don't like the closeness of this poll, but this should keep the Clinton campaign and her supporters on their toes until the results start coming in.

[Alcon]

Not sure what you mean...nearly every poll we're getting these days has a likely voter screen.

ok...differently:

nearly all the other posts we get assumes there are going to be much more registered dems than reps.

this poll disagrees and shows a nearly equal number of dems and reps...with indies deciding the tie.

and you don't need to answer me anymore, i forgot a little thing...only likely matters now.

which means:

if as many dems than reps are voting ...hillary still is going to win outside of the MOE.

Got you.  Yes, the partisan self-ID on this poll is closer than in most others.  That may suggest that this poll ended up with a slightly more Republican sample than others.

Important note: When you ask someone what party they identify with, it's different than asking them with what party they're registered as.  There are quite a few states where Democrats have a strong registration advantage but do terribly at the Presidential level, like West Virginia and Oklahoma.  There are also states that have no party registration.  Even if you do ask people how they're registered, they often respond with their party self-ID.  Not everyone remembers off-hand which party they're registered with, after all.

Pollsters are reluctant to correct for partisan self-ID, even if they get an unusual-looking result, because unlike demographics -- which are static -- people change their partisan self-IDs as the race changes.  If, say, a bunch of people get upset at Trump and stop IDing as Republicans, you'll start finding polls with fewer Republicans and more Independents.  If this happens, re-weighing the party ID to match the "normal" numbers could give a significant pro-Trump skew.

Hope that answers things.

[Gass3268]

This poll essentially tells me that GOTV will be essentially and we all know where the two camps stand on that front.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Also reweighting based on party ID is exactly what that Dean Chambers idiot did in 2012. Enough said.

[john cage bubblegum]

Although the topline isn't fantastic, the internals of the poll are certainly solid for Clinton.  She continues to do very well with independents and college-educated whites, which allows her to narrowly "outperform" the party ID split by a couple of points.

Since party ID is fluid, it's tough to guess exactly how it's gonna come out, but Clinton is currently in a great position for a 5-10 point national margin if she just gets out the Dem base.

[Gass3268]

Although the topline isn't fantastic, the internals of the poll are certainly solid for Clinton.  She continues to do very well with independents and college-educated whites, which allows her to narrowly "outperform" the party ID split by a couple of points.

Since party ID is fluid, it's tough to guess exactly how it's gonna come out, but Clinton is currently in a great position for a 5-10 point national margin if she just gets out the Dem base.

Exactly this feels much better than the topline.

[Gass3268]

Of course 538 would adjust this down to Clinton +3 even though almost every other ABC poll in the past has been adjusted up. What a joke.

[BoAtlantis]

Of course 538 would adjust this down to Clinton +3 even though almost every other ABC poll in the past has been adjusted up. What a joke.

Was just about to post this. Interesting decision.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course 538 would adjust this down to Clinton +3 even though almost every other ABC poll in the past has been adjusted up. What a joke.

Was just about to post this. Interesting decision.

It's not a "decision". These adjustments are made based on a statistical model (I'd guess something like an OLS regression, though it might be something more complicated) that takes into account factors such as trend and house effect. I don't know how they got to this adjustment (I'm surprised by it myself), but this is not a judgment call by Silver or anyone.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I am afraid, this is exactly where the race is. Not at all comfortable.

Lol, I'm not and I don't think so

[Panda Express]

I don't think either side is happy with this poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There is a reason we use aggregates people.

[Phony Moderate]

The last poll was taken nearly a month ago, but that was when Trump was enjoying a good run. Had they conducted a poll, say, a week ago then I suspect Hillary would have led by more than 4.

[Gustaf]

I was already pointed but it's worth repeating - there are MoEs on polls. I think the aggregate of polls indicates Clinton is ahead by 7% or so. A 4% lead is just at the low end of a 95% confidence interval around that point.

You should always have some polls coming in at a lead several % below where you think the race actually is.

[Erc]

Apologies if this was noted earlier in the thread...has anyone been able to find education / race crosstabs on this?

ABC was always good about posting a nice chart with earlier polls, but I can't seem to find one for this one.

[rafta_rafta]

I was already pointed but it's worth repeating - there are MoEs on polls. I think the aggregate of polls indicates Clinton is ahead by 7% or so. A 4% lead is just at the low end of a 95% confidence interval around that point.

You should always have some polls coming in at a lead several % below where you think the race actually is.

[politicallefty]

I was already pointed but it's worth repeating - there are MoEs on polls. I think the aggregate of polls indicates Clinton is ahead by 7% or so. A 4% lead is just at the low end of a 95% confidence interval around that point.

You should always have some polls coming in at a lead several % below where you think the race actually is.

I'm fully aware of that. That doesn't make it any less disturbing that what should have been one of the worst weeks in American history for a presidential candidate barely makes a dent in the polling. Do keep in mind that Hillary was already up 5-6% prior to the Access Hollywood tape. All public polling has also shown that she won the second debate decisively, albeit by a smaller margin than the first. With an entire week dedicated to that tape and now a substantial number of women claiming sexual assault from the Republican nominee, the race is still this close. What would it take? Sexual assaulting women isn't enough? What if a woman or women come forward to say they were raped? Would that make any difference?

Unlike some, I don't think we're seeing a civil war or death of a political party. I think we may be seeing the end of a great power, the United States itself. All great powers have eventually reached an end point. I don't think Donald Trump himself is the end, but I think the movement he has encouraged and adopted is very dangerous. The only sign to the contrary would be a serious and massive rejection of that viewpoint by the electorate. A four point margin is not that sort of rejection by the masses.

[Gustaf]

I was already pointed but it's worth repeating - there are MoEs on polls. I think the aggregate of polls indicates Clinton is ahead by 7% or so. A 4% lead is just at the low end of a 95% confidence interval around that point.

You should always have some polls coming in at a lead several % below where you think the race actually is.

I'm fully aware of that. That doesn't make it any less disturbing that what should have been one of the worst weeks in American history for a presidential candidate barely makes a dent in the polling. Do keep in mind that Hillary was already up 5-6% prior to the Access Hollywood tape. All public polling has also shown that she won the second debate decisively, albeit by a smaller margin than the first. With an entire week dedicated to that tape and now a substantial number of women claiming sexual assault from the Republican nominee, the race is still this close. What would it take? Sexual assaulting women isn't enough? What if a woman or women come forward to say they were raped? Would that make any difference?

Unlike some, I don't think we're seeing a civil war or death of a political party. I think we may be seeing the end of a great power, the United States itself. All great powers have eventually reached an end point. I don't think Donald Trump himself is the end, but I think the movement he has encouraged and adopted is very dangerous. The only sign to the contrary would be a serious and massive rejection of that viewpoint by the electorate. A four point margin is not that sort of rejection by the masses.

Well, look at the NBC poll and feel better.

[Ebsy]

When your worst poll is a lead outside the margin of error, there is nothing to freak out about.