ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4

[Fusionmunster]

I'll believe it when I see it, especially coming from Drudge.

[Fusionmunster]

Sad,

monster is within 4 points of becoming our next president..

First - Dems need to chill - plus this has regularly been one of Clinton's worst major polls. I think it's an outlier

Dems here chill? Are you new here?

[Fusionmunster]

I'll believe it when I see it, especially coming from Drudge.

Drudge wouldn't lie about it.  He probably has access to tomorrow's Washington Post right now.  In some places, you can get an early edition of the Sunday paper on Saturday night.

Then why doesnt he just post the numbers?

[Fusionmunster]

Then why doesnt he just post the numbers?

i doubt that would be legal.

He's already leaked the "topline".

[Fusionmunster]

He lied about exit polls during the primary.

This isn't an early exit poll, which Joe Public never sees.  It is a very verifiable poll that will be released for all to see shortly after midnight.  There is very little reason to lie about it.  He would be proven wrong.

Then why doesnt he just post the numbers?

All non-political geeks care about is the margin.  We care about more than that, but we're atypical.

Why doesnt he just post the topline if he has it?

[Fusionmunster]

He lied about exit polls during the primary.

This isn't an early exit poll, which Joe Public never sees.  It is a very verifiable poll that will be released for all to see shortly after midnight.  There is very little reason to lie about it.  He would be proven wrong.

Then why doesnt he just post the numbers?

All non-political geeks care about is the margin.  We care about more than that, but we're atypical.

Why doesnt he just post the topline if he has it?

'

Who knows?  Maybe he just has the WaPo headline, not the actual paper.  Maybe he thinks it's too inside baseball and nobody cares.  Maybe he doesn't want to burn his source at the Washington Post.

I doubt Drudge would lie about it, though.  He'd end up looking bad.

That ship sailed years ago.

[Fusionmunster]

Well I see no reason to doubt the veracity of this unlinked blurb!

the "real problem" is that literally no one else seems to have got an early copy of the WAPO.

insider i guess.

This number could totally be right, but you have to understand from our perspective that none of us trust Drudge for accurate information and for good reason.  

[Fusionmunster]

I guess we'll know in an hour or so.

[Fusionmunster]

Mark Murray replied to Harry Enten on Drudge leaking the margin:


https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/787494808973631488

@mmurraypolitics
@ForecasterEnten To quote Yoda: "No, there is ... another"

Any idea what he means?

[Fusionmunster]

Mark Murray replied to Harry Enten on Drudge leaking the margin:


https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/787494808973631488

@mmurraypolitics
@ForecasterEnten To quote Yoda: "No, there is ... another"

Any idea what he means?

Maybe NBC news will have a new poll out with a big Clinton margin? Who knows.

Marist does have a national poll coming out on Monday that he would know about.

[Fusionmunster]

"Partisan divisions are 33-25-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 32-29-33 among registered voters and 33-31-31 among likely voters."


This part stuck out with me. They think Republican turnout will be much greater compared to their partisan division.

Yeah, I really think pollsters are going to get burned when their likely voter screens turn out to be absolutely wrong.

[Fusionmunster]

what will have killed him if he loses:

ABC/WaPo poll: 68% of voters believe that Trump has made unwanted sexual advances on women. Just 14% believe that he has not.

Why I believe this poll is overstating his support.

[Fusionmunster]

This poll has some very odd crosstabs.

Yeah, like Clinton leads 51-38 among college-educated whites, while Trump leads 62-31 among non-college-educated whites. I would think that would be a much larger lead than 4 points.

Everything about this poll screams high single digit lead, i'm not sure what the deal is.

[Fusionmunster]

I am afraid, this is exactly where the race is. Not at all comfortable.

We've got YouGov and SurveyMonkey tomorrow and Marist on Monday to hopefully disprove that.