ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't forget...last poll:

ABC News/Wash Post   9/19 - 9/22   651 LV   4.5   46   44   5   1   Clinton +2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html#polls

[ApatheticAustrian]

@ronnie....to think that the race has tightened in the middle of trump-mageddon would just be pure madness.

[ApatheticAustrian]

538 adjusted the last one (C+2 on 9/28) by 2 points to C+4. This would probably be adjusted to C+5 or 6, which is really pretty stable with what we've been seeing recently.

which is kind of interesting since it's an A+ pollster.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Then why doesnt he just post the numbers?

i doubt that would be legal.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Drudge has lied or posted exit poll/poll data that is off by a few numbers in the past...

just assume it's correct.

i guessed we are in for a +5 average anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i would have loved for the race to be +10 hillary at some point but if trumo scandals alone could have achieved that, it would have happened months ago.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Why doesnt he just post the topline if he has it?

i guess too much details would be a problem.

and highlighting a result without any link is silly too.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I doubt Drudge would lie about it, though.  He'd end up looking bad.

drudge got full-course bat-sh**t crazy the last days and lying/get such a thing wrong  would be much less damning in my eyes.

but i am quite sure it's true.

this election will be far closer than assumed...once again.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I hope Drudge is wrong about this...Hopefully the real poll comes out with Clinton at +8.

if the last poll has been hillary +2 in late september.... (one of her worse polls) and let's say she was at +6 directly after the second debate....

+4 sounds right.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I mean .... I could be wrong, but the fact that it's coming from The Drudge and it's a low number .... I just have this doubt also.

the only POSSIBLE take on that would be...hillary +4 compared to the last poll.

but not very realistic i guess...prepare for hillary +4 in 4-way.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I ain't seeing sh*t on Drudge.

look on the little headlines in the top-left corner.

still developing since there will be nothing until tomorrow.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Tomorrow is just about 1.25 to 1.5 hours away, if the times the WaPo has released the poll in the past is any indication.

are those numbers usually officially shared before the morning shows?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Well I see no reason to doubt the veracity of this unlinked blurb!

the "real problem" is that literally no one else seems to have got an early copy of the WAPO.

insider i guess.

[ApatheticAustrian]

ABC News/Washington Post numbers usually are.  They usually drop on the WaPo website around 12:15AM-12:30AM Eastern time.  That gives the Washington Post time to print the results in their Sunday editions.

thanks so much...then i am going to wait i guess.

just wanted to know the details...not really shocked...i see trump as an eternal comeback kid, even with most of his bases collapsing.

[ApatheticAustrian]

This number could totally be right, but you have to understand from our perspective that none of us trust Drudge for accurate information and for good reason.  

drudge is crazy and gets crazier for years.

in the past i just thought he is tabloid right-wing guy....this year he is literally another part of the russian intelligence machine.

still no good reason to hype something like fake numbers.

[ApatheticAustrian]

practically they are hyping clinton on every question besides topline....

[ApatheticAustrian]

what seems to be clear:

clinton stays in the front-seat with more motivation, less undecideds and thirds fading.

talk about consolidation.

[ApatheticAustrian]

what will have killed him if he loses:

ABC/WaPo poll: 68% of voters believe that Trump has made unwanted sexual advances on women. Just 14% believe that he has not.

[ApatheticAustrian]

silly question...

does that mean they adjusted their result to their concept of likely voters?

this amazingly strict concept would explain the A+ state since nate loves those and the close seeming +4 topline.

also means: if there are as many dems as reps voting, the independents break for hillary.

[ApatheticAustrian]

explaining the trump campaign in a nutshell:

[ApatheticAustrian]

Yeah, like Clinton leads 51-38 among college-educated whites, while Trump leads 62-31 among non-college-educated whites. I would think that would be a much larger lead than 4 points.

they assume as many democrats as republicans are going to vote and there are more non-college educated whites.

if you adjust to their party baseline, it seems to make sense.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Not sure what you mean...nearly every poll we're getting these days has a likely voter screen.

ok...differently:

nearly all the other posts we get assumes there are going to be much more registered dems than reps.

this poll disagrees and shows a nearly equal number of dems and reps...with indies deciding the tie.

and you don't need to answer me anymore, i forgot a little thing...only likely matters now.

which means:

if as many dems than reps are voting ...hillary still is going to win outside of the MOE.

[ApatheticAustrian]

surveymonkey is too bullish on hillary in my opinion.

i prefer a water-tight, super-selected poll like this, which shows many "strange" crosstabs and still has a clear clinton lead.