ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4

[BoAtlantis]

Seems like Trump is making a comeback.

[BoAtlantis]

I believe what Drudge says. +4 is actually a decent result for Trump. If it was +7 or +8, Drudge wouldn't be the first to leak it.

[BoAtlantis]

"Partisan divisions are 33-25-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 32-29-33 among registered voters and 33-31-31 among likely voters."


This part stuck out with me. They think Republican turnout will be much greater compared to their partisan division.

[BoAtlantis]

"Partisan divisions are 33-25-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 32-29-33 among registered voters and 33-31-31 among likely voters."


This part stuck out with me. They think Republican turnout will be much greater compared to their partisan division.

Yeah, I really think pollsters are going to get burned when their likely voter screens turn out to be absolutely wrong.

ABC/WaPo last two polls in 2012 showed +3 Obama (final margin +3.9) while other polls showed a nailbiter. I take them at their methodology.

[BoAtlantis]

As Nate Cohn said, you can give the same raw data to different pollsters and they'll come up with different results depending on their expectations of turnout.

Many of these renowned polls all use good methodologies. The subjective part of how to interpret it is the real difficult part.

[BoAtlantis]

One positive I took away from this poll for Democrats is that 6% of Trump supporters say they could change mind; 3% for Hillary supporters.

[BoAtlantis]

Of course 538 would adjust this down to Clinton +3 even though almost every other ABC poll in the past has been adjusted up. What a joke.

Was just about to post this. Interesting decision.