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Author Topic: MT- Mason Dixon: Bullock up 2  (Read 1570 times)
Talleyrand
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« on: October 16, 2016, 06:56:15 am »

http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/the-governor-s-race-is-incredibly-close-bullock-leads-gianforte/article_84f27ffc-68e0-506d-bad7-11c74c9eb10c.html

Bullock (D): 47
Gianforte (R): 45

Yeah... Bullock isn't going to hold on.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 07:14:58 am »

Yeah, I had a feeling that this race was going to tighten significantly. Regardless of what the #analysts on Atlas say, Gianforte is actually not a super-unelectable candidate and has done nothing to alienate the Republican base in the state. Bullock was never going to win by double digits, but my guess is he wins by 2-4 points on election day. Somewhere between Tilt and Leans D, but definitely not "Likely" or "Safe" D. A Gianforte upset wouldn't surprise me at all.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2016, 07:35:42 am by TN Volunteer »Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 10:48:43 am »

Shifting this to Toss-Up. Hopefully we get additional data.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2016, 10:49:40 am »

Eh, wish this was a better pollster than Mason-Dixon, but at least it's something. I will be surprised if Bullock loses, but he's probably not headed for a large margin of victory.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2016, 10:52:13 am »

What I want to know is why is his approval rating 40+ points in the positive when he can barely hold on in this poll.
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Fitzgerald
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 10:55:34 am »

Going to wait until we get word from a pollster that isn't complete crap before I start worrying.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2016, 12:53:24 pm »

Finally a poll!

I'm not surprised to see it tight, MT being what it is. Hope Bullock hangs on.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2016, 01:44:28 pm »

Much closer then most analytics expected. But, may be not too surprizing: if Trump, with all his problems, gets 46% in Montana, why Gianforte must get much less?
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Figueira
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2016, 03:13:25 pm »

Why would you conclude from this that Gianforte will win? Huh

Anyway, Tilt D now seems like a good rating. It's nice to have a poll, at any rate.
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jdb
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2016, 03:14:52 pm »

Much closer then most analytics expected. But, may be not too surprizing: if Trump, with all his problems, gets 46% in Montana, why Gianforte must get much less?

Gianforte is a pretty weak candidate and has run a horrible campaign, IIRC.
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2016, 03:25:15 pm »

What I want to know is why is his approval rating 40+ points in the positive when he can barely hold on in this poll.

He is not as popular as that Morning Consult poll suggests, especially not among Republicans. Most voters (including myself, for the most part) just don't mind him. Gianforte is a basically a Trumpish Republican without the insanity and incompetence of Trump, and I wouldn't say that he is a terrible candidate or campaigner (if he were, he would be down 10 points or more)
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2016, 03:33:00 pm »

My suspicion here is that Bullock hangs on narrowly, Republicans win all the row officer elections (maybe except the Lake v. Gutsche race), and Gianforte comes back in 2020.
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136or142
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2016, 03:44:36 pm »

My suspicion here is that Bullock hangs on narrowly, Republicans win all the row officer elections (maybe except the Lake v. Gutsche race), and Gianforte comes back in 2020.

Kind of like Brian Schweitzer. (Except Schweitzer narrowly lost the U.S Senate race and then won for Governor two years later.)
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JMT
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2016, 04:30:57 pm »

My suspicion here is that Bullock hangs on narrowly, Republicans win all the row officer elections (maybe except the Lake v. Gutsche race), and Gianforte comes back in 2020.

I agree with this, except I think Attorney General Tim Fox will run for (and win) the Governorship in 2020. I don't think it'll be Gianforte
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jdb
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2016, 05:46:18 pm »

My suspicion here is that Bullock hangs on narrowly, Republicans win all the row officer elections (maybe except the Lake v. Gutsche race), and Gianforte comes back in 2020.

I think the Democrats win the State Auditor and Superintendent of Public Instruction races.
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SWE
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2016, 07:03:04 pm »

Why would you conclude from this that Gianforte will win? Huh
.
DOOM
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2016, 07:09:43 pm »

The overreactions from the usual suspects/idiots are always amusing.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2016, 11:32:41 pm »

Much closer then most analytics expected. But, may be not too surprizing: if Trump, with all his problems, gets 46% in Montana, why Gianforte must get much less?

Gianforte is a pretty weak candidate and has run a horrible campaign, IIRC.

And still gets 45%, which is not bad, to say the least. Leans Bullock, but may be very close in November.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2016, 12:25:33 pm »

My suspicion here is that Bullock hangs on narrowly, Republicans win all the row officer elections (maybe except the Lake v. Gutsche race), and Gianforte comes back in 2020.

I agree with this, except I think Attorney General Tim Fox will run for (and win) the Governorship in 2020. I don't think it'll be Gianforte
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2016, 06:00:15 pm »

Tim Fox would likely lose a gubernatorial race in MT, especially if he runs against Cooney. Gianforte would be the better candidate here.
Why exactly do you think that Gianforte would be stronger than Fox? Also, you live in Montana, right? (You changed your avatar a few months ago.)
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