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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke  (Read 2414 times)
heatcharger
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« on: October 16, 2016, 07:59:36 am »
« edited: October 16, 2016, 11:04:41 am by heatcharger »

Link.

Nevada:

Clinton 46%
Trump 40%
Johnson 4%

Utah:

Trump 37%
Clinton 20%
McMullin 20%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

11-state battleground tracker (if you care):

Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump 40% (-2)
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 08:00:59 am »

She is in good shape in NV.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 08:01:39 am »

Note: This drastically understates third party support in Utah because the third parties were not included in the question or the answer, you had to choose "other" first.

Also Johnson is at 7 and Stein at 1 in Utah. Johnson is at 4 in Nevada.
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Incipimus iterum
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2016, 08:01:51 am »

Utah and Nevada are kinda what I expected them to be at.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2016, 08:01:54 am »

RIP #BattlegroundUtah
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 08:12:26 am »

Note: This drastically understates third party support in Utah because the third parties were not included in the question or the answer, you had to choose "other" first.

Also Johnson is at 7 and Stein at 1 in Utah. Johnson is at 4 in Nevada.

Agreed with one caveat: McMullin's name recognition in Utah needs to improve
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politicallefty
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2016, 08:14:43 am »

Note: This drastically understates third party support in Utah because the third parties were not included in the question or the answer, you had to choose "other" first.

Also Johnson is at 7 and Stein at 1 in Utah. Johnson is at 4 in Nevada.

Agreed with one caveat: McMullin's name recognition in Utah needs to improve

Seriously, all it would take is a $2 million ad buy in Utah having Romney endorsing McMullin and appearing in said ad together. Romney could buy the ad himself if he wanted.
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Once & Future Pres. Griff
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2016, 08:17:38 am »
« Edited: October 16, 2016, 08:20:26 am by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

Clinton 46
Trump 40

It was 42/42 in their last tracker on September 18.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-women-propel-hillary-clinton-into-battleground-lead-over-donald-trump/

Img


Img


Quote
Last month the women’s vote in these key states was five points more for Clinton; today it is 15 points in Clinton’s favor – accounting for most of the swing, overall - and it even outweighs partisanship. Trump was at 84 percent among Republican women then, and has dropped to 77 percent today.

......

Fifty-three percent of Republicans say GOP leaders who’ve left Trump do so for political motives, afraid to lose votes, and not principle; just 13 percent attribute those stances to principles. Thirty-five percent call it a combination of both. Thirty-seven percent of Republicans are influenced at least some by the views of their party’s leadership, with 14 percent saying a lot and 23 percent somewhat.

But only 40 percent of the Republicans not currently voting Trump would still consider him going forward. This makes it harder for Trump to get back up to the mid-90’s level of party support most nominees typically enjoy.

.....

Across the battlegrounds more dislike Trump as a person than dislike his policies, and in Utah this is even more so. Across all the battlegrounds 37 percent of conservatives and 34 percent of Republicans do not like Trump as a person. In Utah, 60 percent of conservatives and 59 percent of Republicans don’t like him as a person.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2016, 08:27:49 am »

In the battleground tracker, 69% of Clinton supporters are #ImWithHer or #IGuessImWithHer. Only 46% of Trump supporters are #MAGA


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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2016, 08:40:13 am »

Lol
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Mallow
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2016, 08:53:04 am »
« Edited: October 16, 2016, 10:18:02 am by Mallow »

Again, this is not useless. One can get a good idea of where the race stands in each battleground state using this information, and a couple other assumptions.

I calculated margins for each state using the following two assumptions:
1. The battleground states will have the same total turnout proportions (relative to one another) as they had in 2012.
2. The battleground states will have margins relative to each other (and third-party voting percentages) as described by 538's polls-plus model.

Neither of these assumptions is perfect, obviously, but they're likely good approximations. Given this, here's what we get for the margins in each battleground state...
AZ: D+2 (47%/45%)
CO: D+9 (50%/41%)
FL: D+6 (50%/44%)
GA: R+2 (46%/48%)
IA: D+4 (52%/48%)
MI: D+11 (51%/40%)
NV: D+6 (49%/43%)
NH: D+9 (50%/41%)
NC: D+5 (52%/47%)
OH: D+4 (48%/44%)
PA: D+9 (51%/42%)
VA: D+10 (51%/41%)
WI: D+10 (51%/41%)


EDIT: I see that they did a separate NV poll, and found a margin of D+6, which aligns well with my above estimation.
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Arch
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2016, 09:06:43 am »

Looking good in NV!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2016, 09:06:57 am »

Again, this is not useless. One can get a good idea of where the race stands in each battleground state using this information, and a couple other assumptions.

I calculated margins for each state using the following two assumptions:
1. The battleground states will have the same turnout proportions (relative to one another) as they had in 2012.
2. The battleground states will have margins relative to each other as described by 538's polls-plus model.

Neither of these assumptions is perfect, obviously, but they're likely good approximations. Given this, here's what we get for the margins in each battleground state...
AZ: D+2 (47%/45%)
CO: D+9 (50%/41%)
FL: D+6 (50%/44%)
GA: R+2 (46%/48%)
IA: D+4 (52%/48%)
MI: D+11 (51%/40%)
NV: D+6 (49%/43%)
NH: D+9 (50%/41%)
NC: D+5 (52%/47%)
OH: D+4 (48%/44%)
PA: D+9 (51%/42%)
VA: D+10 (51%/41%)
WI: D+10 (51%/41%)

To put it another way, according to 538's polls+ model, we would expect this particular grouping of states to be ~3-4 points more Republican than the national average (I mean, it includes states like Georgia which are a good ~10 points more Republican than the national average, but doesn't include states like New Jersey or Washington to balance it out).  So because the result here is Clinton +6, that corresponds to the national margin being about Clinton +9 or 10.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2016, 09:09:29 am »

Voters under 30 in UT...

McMullin: 33%
Clinton: 27%
Johnson: 15%
Trump: 13%
Stein: 2%
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2016, 09:13:52 am »

Voters under 30 in UT...

McMullin: 33%
Clinton: 27%
Johnson: 15%
Trump: 13%
Stein: 2%


Trump is in 4th with kids in Utah?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2016, 09:23:42 am »

Utah crosstabs:

https://www.scribd.com/document/327758570/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Utah-Oct-16

Dems
Clinton 91%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 2%
Trump 1%
Stein 0%

GOP
Trump 52%
McMullin 25%
Clinton 3%
Johnson 3%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 32%
Clinton 20%
McMullin 18%
Johnson 13%
Stein 1%

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 21%
McMullin 16%
Johnson 8%
Stein 0%

women:
Trump 31%
McMullin 24%
Clinton 19% (lower than her %age with men!)
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

McMullin leads with youngs, while Trump leads massively with olds…

age 18-29: McMullin +6 over Clinton
age 30-44: Trump +10 over Clinton
age 45-64: Trump +17 over McMullin
age 65+: Trump +44 over Clinton
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mencken
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2016, 09:35:33 am »

Does the battleground tracker generally weight each state according to its population, or is it a roughly equal sample size from each state? I could not find a clear answer to this from the description.
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Mallow
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2016, 09:40:37 am »
« Edited: October 16, 2016, 09:42:53 am by Mallow »


To put it another way, according to 538's polls+ model, we would expect this particular grouping of states to be ~3-4 points more Republican than the national average (I mean, it includes states like Georgia which are a good ~10 points more Republican than the national average, but doesn't include states like New Jersey or Washington to balance it out).  So because the result here is Clinton +6, that corresponds to the national margin being about Clinton +9 or 10.


Exactly, and well put.


Does the battleground tracker generally weight each state according to its population, or is it a roughly equal sample size from each state? I could not find a clear answer to this from the description.

I assumed the former, but if I'm wrong, that would obviously make a difference in my calculation above. That being said, the difference would be relatively small, since a simple mean (not weighted by population) of my margins gives 6.4%, close to the 6% margin reported.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2016, 09:44:20 am »
« Edited: October 16, 2016, 09:59:53 am by Boko Harambe »

Voters under 30 in UT...

McMullin: 33%
Clinton: 27%
Johnson: 15%
Trump: 13%
Stein: 2%


Trump is in 4th with kids in Utah?

Don't worry. In ten years, he'll be dating them.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2016, 10:00:07 am »

Again, this is not useless. One can get a good idea of where the race stands in each battleground state using this information, and a couple other assumptions.

I calculated margins for each state using the following two assumptions:
1. The battleground states will have the same total turnout proportions (relative to one another) as they had in 2012.
2. The battleground states will have margins relative to each other as described by 538's polls-plus model.

Neither of these assumptions is perfect, obviously, but they're likely good approximations. Given this, here's what we get for the margins in each battleground state...
AZ: D+2 (47%/45%)
CO: D+9 (50%/41%)
FL: D+6 (50%/44%)
GA: R+2 (46%/48%)
IA: D+4 (52%/48%)
MI: D+11 (51%/40%)
NV: D+6 (49%/43%)
NH: D+9 (50%/41%)
NC: D+5 (52%/47%)
OH: D+4 (48%/44%)
PA: D+9 (51%/42%)
VA: D+10 (51%/41%)
WI: D+10 (51%/41%)


EDIT: I see that they did a separate NV poll, and found a margin of D+6, which aligns well with my above estimation.

Img
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2016, 10:00:19 am »

Looks like Hillary's actually going to come in third place in Utah.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2016, 10:03:07 am »


Great results!

Keep it up!

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LLR
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2016, 10:17:59 am »

I'm not trusting this Utah number
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Fargobison
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2016, 10:19:58 am »

Are other polls showing this kind of massive gap? I know older people like Trump more but this gap in Utah is crazy.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2016, 10:33:38 am »

Are other polls showing this kind of massive gap? I know older people like Trump more but this gap in Utah is crazy.

The Monmouth Utah divided by age in only two large bins, over and under 50:

under 50:
Trump 31%
Clinton 25%
McMullin 24%
Johnson 13%

over 50:
Trump 38%
Clinton 32%
McMullin 16%
Johnson 4%

So not such a massive age gap in that poll.  Though the one point of agreement between the two polls is that McMullin does better with youngs.  But I guess in the case of the Yougov poll, they’re saying that McMullin is massively popular with young Republicans and not so popular with old Republicans, and so that’s presumably what’s driving the insanely large differential in Trump’s support by age.

Here’s the Yougov # for just Trump and McMullin between youngs and olds:

age 18-29:
McMullin 33%
Trump 13%

age 65+:
Trump 61%
McMullin 10%
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