CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke

[Mallow]

Again, this is not useless. One can get a good idea of where the race stands in each battleground state using this information, and a couple other assumptions.

I calculated margins for each state using the following two assumptions:
1. The battleground states will have the same total turnout proportions (relative to one another) as they had in 2012.
2. The battleground states will have margins relative to each other (and third-party voting percentages) as described by 538's polls-plus model.

Neither of these assumptions is perfect, obviously, but they're likely good approximations. Given this, here's what we get for the margins in each battleground state...
AZ: D+2 (47%/45%)
CO: D+9 (50%/41%)
FL: D+6 (50%/44%)
GA: R+2 (46%/48%)
IA: D+4 (52%/48%)
MI: D+11 (51%/40%)
NV: D+6 (49%/43%)
NH: D+9 (50%/41%)
NC: D+5 (52%/47%)
OH: D+4 (48%/44%)
PA: D+9 (51%/42%)
VA: D+10 (51%/41%)
WI: D+10 (51%/41%)


EDIT: I see that they did a separate NV poll, and found a margin of D+6, which aligns well with my above estimation.

[Mallow]

To put it another way, according to 538's polls+ model, we would expect this particular grouping of states to be ~3-4 points more Republican than the national average (I mean, it includes states like Georgia which are a good ~10 points more Republican than the national average, but doesn't include states like New Jersey or Washington to balance it out).  So because the result here is Clinton +6, that corresponds to the national margin being about Clinton +9 or 10.

Exactly, and well put.

Does the battleground tracker generally weight each state according to its population, or is it a roughly equal sample size from each state? I could not find a clear answer to this from the description.

I assumed the former, but if I'm wrong, that would obviously make a difference in my calculation above. That being said, the difference would be relatively small, since a simple mean (not weighted by population) of my margins gives 6.4%, close to the 6% margin reported.

[Mallow]

B-b-b-but Trump's strength in NV! Muh casino/resort effect! I thought anything who suggested that NV isn't a toss-up is delusional!!

Trump was never going to win NV. It's part of Hillary's freiwal. I'll be ready for those accolades on November 9th.

Completely agree. NV and CO are both out of reach for Trump (and most Republicans) these days.

[Mallow]

IceSpear's numbers suggest that this poll is a tad too optimistic, but the NV one is believable. I don't buy that NV is more Republican than the country as a whole this year.

(Assuming you're talking about my post... if not, please disregard) Not all Pennsylvania Democrats are the same.