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Author Topic: AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1  (Read 2829 times)
heatcharger
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« on: October 16, 2016, 06:09:20 pm »

Link.

Trump - 37% (-1)
Clinton - 36% (+6)
Johnson - 7% (-4)
Stein - 3% (+1)

Conducted Oct 11-13. 500 LV.

I don't believe this is an internal poll from any specific campaign, so in my opinion, this deserves its own thread.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2016, 08:00:03 pm by heatcharger »Logged

voter1993
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 06:10:58 pm »

I see Trump winning this plus has a democratic tilt.. i take this with a grain of salt.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 06:11:14 pm »

Thats alot of undecideds.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2016, 06:14:34 pm »

Wow, nothing like a SUNDAY NIGHT SHOCK POLL to start the week!
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2016, 06:17:15 pm »

I see Trump winning this plus has a democratic tilt.. i take this with a grain of salt.

i do too but wow even Trump +6 is incredibly weak.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 06:18:02 pm »

So Clinton is picking up some Johnson people, I guess.
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2016, 06:18:46 pm »

This is an internal poll for the Alaska Democratic party.  Midnight Sun had nothing to do with conducting it.  You probably should remove the reference to Midnight Sun from the title.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2016, 06:22:15 pm »

This is an internal poll for the Alaska Democratic party.  Midnight Sun had nothing to do with conducting it.  You probably should remove the reference to Midnight Sun from the title.

It should probably go to the Internal Poll megathread.
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voter1993
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2016, 06:24:03 pm »

I see Trump winning this plus has a democratic tilt.. i take this with a grain of salt.

i do too but wow even Trump +6 is incredibly weak.

It is trump we won't see 2012 margins in republican states this time around, he will win these states but not by big margins like mitt romney.
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2016, 06:25:19 pm »

Internal and AK polls in general suck, but still, wow.
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2016, 06:26:25 pm »

Even with my 5 point rule, Trump +6 in Alaska is very weak
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2016, 06:32:20 pm »

This is an internal poll, already being discussed in that thread
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2016, 06:35:07 pm »

Thats alot of undecideds.

Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2016, 06:44:15 pm »

Thats alot of undecideds.

Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2016, 06:48:22 pm »

I called it awhile back, that Trump is extremely vulnerable in Alaska, but even if one uses a +5 rule for internals, my "surprising prediction" from a few hours ago, and various comments over the past few weeks, this is definitely a state in play for a ton of reasons.....

Pacific Northwest will be solid Democrat come November.... even "way up North to Alaska... North of Russia's own" in the words of the great classic country/folk artist Johnny Horton back in the '50s.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt0NEESrUA
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darthpi
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2016, 06:57:24 pm »

Thats alot of undecideds.

Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Alaska Native population is probably either trending Democratic and/or is voting at higher turnout rates. I was there last summer and from what I understand the native population tends to have pretty strong concerns about climate change.

The borough maps for the elections in Alaska on Wikipedia seem to indicate the areas with high Alaska Native populations seem to be trending Democratic the most strongly.
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2016, 06:58:56 pm »

Thats alot of undecideds.

Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

Not an expert on Alaska politics, but could it be an increase in Native American population? (which trends Democratic). Remember, Alaska was only 64% non-Hispanic white according to the last census
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heatcharger
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2016, 07:18:06 pm »

Remember, the race will be declared at 11 PM ET, and will essentially be over many hours before that. Alaska's polls close at 12 PM ET. The idea that demoralized Trump voters won't bother voting is very intriguing.
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2016, 07:33:56 pm »


Getting closer in this state for Clinton.

Let's see how AK looks after the last debate!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2016, 07:34:56 pm »

Boos for using the awful term "statistical tie".
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2016, 07:40:31 pm »

Thats alot of undecideds.

Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

Alaska is a state that is extremely ornery when it comes to the politics of the lower 48.

This is a state, that is one of most dovish in the country when it came to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, where there where two Senators that called BS on the authorization for war in Vietnam (The other was Oregon).

It is a state, that similarly to Texas views itself as being virtually an independent country, but was and is essentially the final frontier of Western expansionism, as part of the foundation myth of Alaskan exceptionalism.

Alaska is also a state heavily dependent upon natural resource extraction with Timber and Fishing, being major sources of employment that recognizes the value of "renewable natural resources" to the point where so see an odd alliance between environmentalists and workers in the industry on total agreement regarding issues like sustainability.

Exxon-Valdez also crystallized this in a dramatic manner where we all saw back in the late '80s how one single oil spill did not only destroy sensitive ecological areas, but also destroyed the livelihoods of small fishermen dependent upon the Salmon runs and other harvests for their livelihoods.

Fast forward into the 1990s and 2000s, the politics of oil extraction shifts the statewide dynamics, and it amounts to a real paycheck into the pockets of every Alaskan, even citizens going to college/university out of state (Like one of my friends back in the late '90s).

Obama was the first Democrat in many years, that both ran as opposed to an extremely unpopular war in Iraq (Way up North in Alaska), while also striking the right balance between jobs/environment in a resource dependent state.

In general Alaskans don't like "Billionaires" from New York telling them what to do, and additionally as I have stated on other threads previously, making insane foreign policy platform claims regarding "Seizing Iraqi Oil" doesn't play so well when all of the residents of Alaska get a check from the oil industry as part of a negotiated state sovereign deal gig.

Clinton is likely seen as more favorable to the American domestic petro industry than Obama, considering her holdout on Keystone back in the primaries, and Trump seems like an a** even in roughneck oil country, fishing/cannery jobs, etc...



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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2016, 07:46:08 pm »

Boos for using the awful term "statistical tie".

^

Burn it in a fire!
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n/c
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2016, 07:48:58 pm »

Boos for using the awful term "statistical tie".

^

Burn it in a fire!
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2016, 08:50:24 pm »

Wow, nothing like a SUNDAY NIGHT SHOCK POLL to start the week!
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2016, 08:57:26 pm »

does anyone know how the people of alaska in general feel about russia?

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