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  AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1  (Read 3081 times)
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Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.91


« on: October 16, 2016, 06:57:24 pm »

Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Alaska Native population is probably either trending Democratic and/or is voting at higher turnout rates. I was there last summer and from what I understand the native population tends to have pretty strong concerns about climate change.

The borough maps for the elections in Alaska on Wikipedia seem to indicate the areas with high Alaska Native populations seem to be trending Democratic the most strongly.
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