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  AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1  (Read 3059 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: October 16, 2016, 06:48:22 pm »

I called it awhile back, that Trump is extremely vulnerable in Alaska, but even if one uses a +5 rule for internals, my "surprising prediction" from a few hours ago, and various comments over the past few weeks, this is definitely a state in play for a ton of reasons.....

Pacific Northwest will be solid Democrat come November.... even "way up North to Alaska... North of Russia's own" in the words of the great classic country/folk artist Johnny Horton back in the '50s.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt0NEESrUA
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 4,916
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 07:40:31 pm »


Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

Alaska is a state that is extremely ornery when it comes to the politics of the lower 48.

This is a state, that is one of most dovish in the country when it came to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, where there where two Senators that called BS on the authorization for war in Vietnam (The other was Oregon).

It is a state, that similarly to Texas views itself as being virtually an independent country, but was and is essentially the final frontier of Western expansionism, as part of the foundation myth of Alaskan exceptionalism.

Alaska is also a state heavily dependent upon natural resource extraction with Timber and Fishing, being major sources of employment that recognizes the value of "renewable natural resources" to the point where so see an odd alliance between environmentalists and workers in the industry on total agreement regarding issues like sustainability.

Exxon-Valdez also crystallized this in a dramatic manner where we all saw back in the late '80s how one single oil spill did not only destroy sensitive ecological areas, but also destroyed the livelihoods of small fishermen dependent upon the Salmon runs and other harvests for their livelihoods.

Fast forward into the 1990s and 2000s, the politics of oil extraction shifts the statewide dynamics, and it amounts to a real paycheck into the pockets of every Alaskan, even citizens going to college/university out of state (Like one of my friends back in the late '90s).

Obama was the first Democrat in many years, that both ran as opposed to an extremely unpopular war in Iraq (Way up North in Alaska), while also striking the right balance between jobs/environment in a resource dependent state.

In general Alaskans don't like "Billionaires" from New York telling them what to do, and additionally as I have stated on other threads previously, making insane foreign policy platform claims regarding "Seizing Iraqi Oil" doesn't play so well when all of the residents of Alaska get a check from the oil industry as part of a negotiated state sovereign deal gig.

Clinton is likely seen as more favorable to the American domestic petro industry than Obama, considering her holdout on Keystone back in the primaries, and Trump seems like an a** even in roughneck oil country, fishing/cannery jobs, etc...



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