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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1  (Read 2920 times)
Badger
badger
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« on: October 16, 2016, 11:11:30 pm »

does anyone know how the people of alaska in general feel about russia?



They can see it from their houses.

Beat me to it. Wink
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 01:09:31 am »

Did we really enter an internal into the database?

mds32 likes to enter every single poll into the database, but I mean you literally added the MN-Breitbart/Gravis poll,so...

Which wasn't an internal...

Roll Eyes
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 02:21:05 am »

Did we really enter an internal into the database?

mds32 likes to enter every single poll into the database, but I mean you literally added the MN-Breitbart/Gravis poll,so...

Which wasn't an internal...

Roll Eyes

I'm with him on this.  There are some bad polls out there, and polls with house effects, but the internals we get are so damn cherry-picked that there's almost no way to adjust for the way they skew averages.  Also, there's the nasty problem of credibly determining which public polls should be excluded.  Short of fraud, I say throw them all in and let things average out.  If they appear to skew one way, adjust for the house effect.  If they're crappy, consider them less the next time around.  But otherwise we get into subjective territory where crazy people start discounting CNN polls because THE MEDIA!11, etc.  Gravis is a pretty bad poll historically, and seems to have a GOP-leaning house effect, and I think it's better to adjust for that than throw them out selectively.

I think the argument might rather be that a poll conducted for Breitbart is basically an internal for the Trump campaign. Which isn't totally unreasonable.

exactamundo.
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