Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 17, 2019, 11:35:29 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1 (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: AK-Lake Research (D): Trump +1  (Read 2939 times)
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


« on: October 16, 2016, 06:26:25 pm »

Even with my 5 point rule, Trump +6 in Alaska is very weak
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,583
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 06:58:56 pm »

Thats alot of undecideds.

Usually, I'd say "junk poll". In a state like AK, though, that number of undecideds - even at this point - isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.

Everybody should also remember that AK is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush +31, Bush +26, McCain +22, Romney +14). All good things must come to an end, but it's not a stretch based on recent AK swings to see this as a low-to-mid single-digit race. If we see that happen this time, then AK definitely is trending hard toward the Democrats.

Can anyone with insight to AK politics explain this. Why would Alaska trend Democrat. And it's quite consistent since 2000. I'm surprised by that Romney number.

All the polls so far show AK in the single digits. She won't win it, but it will be within 10 points I think.

Not an expert on Alaska politics, but could it be an increase in Native American population? (which trends Democratic). Remember, Alaska was only 64% non-Hispanic white according to the last census
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC