Franklin Pierce U/Boston Herald: Clinton +5 (4-way)

[dspNY]

Clinton 46
Trump 41
Johnson 6
Stein 2

National poll, taken October 9-13. 1,011 LVs, MoE 3.1%. Last poll was Clinton 45, Trump 43

http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/10/16/FPU-BH-Memo-101616.pdf

[Horus]

How reliable were they in 2012? This looks about right.

[voter1993]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

[amdcpus]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 rates them as B- and D+1.3.  Not a lot of polls, though (21).

[dspNY]

Full numbers:

Clinton favorables: 45/52 (up from 43/54)
Trump favorables: 39/58 (down from 41/56)
Johnson favorables: 16/38 (46% with no opinion)
Stein favorables: 10/28 (62% with no opinion)

88% of Clinton supporters and 90% of Trump supporters are locked in

61% think Clinton will win
26% think Trump will win

95% have heard about the Access Hollywood tapes
38% think he should drop out, 55% think he should stay in

50% think it is fair for Trump to bring up Bill's past, 43% think it is unfair (that's a surprise)
86% don't care about Bill's past and it won't affect their vote. 85% of indies and 93% of Dems don't care

41% say their opinion of Trump has worsened after 2 debates; only 12% have an improved opinion. 47% are unchanged

25% say their opinion of Clinton has worsened after 2 debates; 22% have an improved opinion. 53% are unchanged.

45% say Pence won the VP debate; 23% say Kaine won

[voter1993]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

[dspNY]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

[OneJ]

Hillary's Fav ratings are on par with that last FOX poll, but a majority of people thought it was fair to bring up the past about Bill Clinton (60-40).

However, the WaPost poll showed that most people thought it was inappropriate for the orange fuzz ball to bring up Bill Clinton. Strange.

[voter1993]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

[Speed of Sound]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

Best savin your breath with this joker.

[Gass3268]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

5 points nationally is not good. It is totally in the realm of possibilities with a Clinton 6-8 point lead, just like NBC's 11.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

I suppose for the dumpster fire to be a little less on fire is a good thing?

Poll after poll are showing not only that Trump is butting his head at 41-42% nationally, but that those remaining undecideds despise him. It's a case of whether they get behind Clinton, a third-party or not vote.

[dspNY]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

[voter1993]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

[dspNY]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

More reputable polls (ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ) show Clinton with 47 and 48% in a four way race and 50%+ in a head-to-head with almost the entire electorate decided

[voter1993]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

More reputable polls (ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ) show Clinton with 47 and 48% in a four way race and 50%+ in a head-to-head with almost the entire electorate decided

yes, i don't believe that NBC poll unless i see more polls this week that have double digit leads, it looks more likely it is a 3-5 point race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

Early voting has already started in several states.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

More reputable polls (ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ) show Clinton with 47 and 48% in a four way race and 50%+ in a head-to-head with almost the entire electorate decided

yes, i don't believe that NBC poll unless i see more polls this week that have double digit leads, it looks more likely it is a 3-5 point race.

I think you're kidding yourself. This is 6-8% nationally at this point.

[voter1993]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

More reputable polls (ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ) show Clinton with 47 and 48% in a four way race and 50%+ in a head-to-head with almost the entire electorate decided

yes, i don't believe that NBC poll unless i see more polls this week that have double digit leads, it looks more likely it is a 3-5 point race.

I think you're kidding yourself. This is 6-8% nationally at this point.

The race is very volatile, i'll be waiting for more, ABC had 4 points, and the new boston herald has 5 points. If it is more than 6 we will see arizona georgia missouri flip i'll be waiting.

[Speed of Sound]

I think you're kidding yourself. This is 6-8% nationally at this point.

If he is, that's the only one he's successfully kidding.

[BundouYMB]

a). this poll is already old, went Oct. 9-13. that means largely pre-assaultgate and definitely pre-assaulgate having time to register with the electorate.
b). trendline is in Clinton's favor. last poll had her up 2.
c). Monmouth has been in the field with a national poll over the weekend and will be releasing tomorrow. that's the one that matters.

sorry for only capitalizing like two words I'm on mobile

[voter1993]

a). this poll is already old, went Oct. 9-13. that means largely pre-assaultgate and definitely pre-assaulgate having time to register with the electorate.
b). trendline is in Clinton's favor. last poll had her up 2.
c). Monmouth has been in the field with a national poll over the weekend and will be releasing tomorrow. that's the one that matters.

sorry for only capitalizing like two words I'm on mobile

Monmouth will have her up big since the last poll had her up 4 i'm pretty sure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This seems right not too bad for trump but i don't see him making any gains in this state.

National Poll.

Oh National Poll? this is good for him!!! i thought this was new hampshire, that nbc poll looks way off and an outlier.

Being stuck at 41% in a national poll three weeks from the election and right before early voting starts is a terrible position

of course you don't want to be losing but the week trump had.. he's holding up well before the 3rd debate.even if he loses congress won't let anything clinton wants get passed.

His national average in 4-way trial heats is 39-40% and 41-42% in head-to-head matchups. That is an atrocious position

yes, but hillary is stuck at 45-46% i'm curious how this debate will go, i think if clinton does well it will be over, but if trump does well it will be a curious 3 weeks of how things go

More reputable polls (ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ) show Clinton with 47 and 48% in a four way race and 50%+ in a head-to-head with almost the entire electorate decided

yes, i don't believe that NBC poll unless i see more polls this week that have double digit leads, it looks more likely it is a 3-5 point race.

I think you're kidding yourself. This is 6-8% nationally at this point.

The race is very volatile, i'll be waiting for more, ABC had 4 points, and the new boston herald has 5 points. If it is more than 6 we will see arizona georgia missouri flip i'll be waiting.

Which is why you have aggregates. A 6-8 national lead will give you weird outliers ... I don't think this is Clinton +10, despite wanting it and thinking it should be,  but if you factor in everything... I don't see how anyone could consider this race to be as close as you're insisting. Plus, is it really that volatile overall? There have been three significant periods of volatility, most recently immediately after the RNC then after Clinton's health scare. Otherwise outside of the usual noises and slight ups and downs, the race has been pretty stable. It's just that people remember those volatile periods.

[Ebsy]

This race has been remarkable stable with a mid single digit Clinton lead.