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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  UT: Rasmussen:Trump +1 over McMullin
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Author Topic: UT: Rasmussen:Trump +1 over McMullin  (Read 3559 times)
Dr. RI
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« on: October 17, 2016, 09:42:24 am »
« edited: October 17, 2016, 11:00:48 am by Likely Voter »

Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton: 28%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/788025701224050688

http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 09:42:40 am »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 09:45:55 am by Ozymandias »

http://heatst.com/politics/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/?mod=sm_tw_post

Trump - 30,
McMullin -29
Clinton - 28
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1

10/15-10/16, 725 LV, 4% MOE
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mark_twain
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 09:43:27 am »

Great poll!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 09:43:36 am »

Wow!  It looks like UT really could go to any of the three.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 09:45:58 am »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 09:48:25 am by MohamedChalid »

LOL. #Muffinmentum and #TrumpCollpase.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 09:46:16 am »

Gary Johnson's in free-fall here. Not overly surprising, I guess.
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North Fulton Democrat
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 09:48:09 am »

This would be an amazing finish!
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 09:49:04 am »

Johnson has crashed
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 09:49:08 am »

it's a Rassy poll so I remain a skeptic
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Edu
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2016, 09:49:20 am »

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

GLORIOUS!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2016, 09:50:34 am »

This is funny.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2016, 09:54:27 am »

McMullin's the favorite in UT now as far as I'm concerned.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2016, 09:55:37 am »

Could Johnson + McMullin give Idaho to Clinton?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2016, 09:56:03 am »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 09:58:21 am by @realJohnEwards »

From Trump U Rasmussen no less. Freedom poll!
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Erc
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2016, 09:59:40 am »

Could Johnson + McMullin give Idaho to Clinton?

Mormons are (at best) a quarter of the electorate in Idaho, as opposed to three-quarters in Utah.  Trump could lose a majority in Utah, but he'd still win the plurality.
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ursulahx
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2016, 10:00:36 am »

OK, Rasmussen, but still... go Evan! Wink
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Gustaf
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2016, 10:04:12 am »

Could Johnson + McMullin give Idaho to Clinton?

Mormons are (at best) a quarter of the electorate in Idaho, as opposed to three-quarters in Utah.  Trump could lose a majority in Utah, but he'd still win the plurality.

Yeah, there's enough non-Mormon Republicans in Idaho to keep it in line.

If Trump continues to crash and burn though I think McMullin has a pretty good chance in Utah if his name recognition keeps climbing.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 10:04:52 am »

Note that the survey date is after we already had multiple Utah polls released with McMullin at 20% or more.  As I said a few days ago, the mere fact that McMullin made it to 20% or more in a couple of polls has the possibility of creating a positive feedback loop for him: The Utah media gives a bunch of coverage to McMullin's poll #s, which exposes many more Utah voters to the fact that there is a guy running for president named Evan McMullin, which boosts his poll #s, which leads to more media coverage, etc.  It's not unexpected for a candidate starting with low name recognition but high support among those who know him.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2016, 10:08:27 am »

McMullin's the favorite in UT now as far as I'm concerned.

He has the momentum but I'm not sure he can sustain it for 3 weeks. He needs money. Barnstorm the state and maybe he can pull it off. I will love it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2016, 10:08:52 am »

The more that the media disclose about the personal life of Donald Trump, the less compatible he seems with Mormon values. Add to that, his ethnic and religious bigotry is incompatible with Mormon objectives of proselytizing to people in America, including illegal aliens.

It may now be hard to believe, but Utah used to be a fairly-reliable Democratic state, going every time for FDR (OK, lots of states did) and Truman in a close election in 1948. Only in the 1950s did it go Republican as Dwight Eisenhower successfully cultivated the Mormon vote.

Mormons used to be religious 'outsiders' who did not fully trust the Protestant Establishment, and voted something like Jews. Eisenhower convinced Mormons that they were mainstream and that the GOP had become friendly to Mormons.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2016, 10:22:29 am »

We had Dixiecrats, what should McMullin's supporters be called.

Mormoncans?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2016, 10:25:21 am »

I'd probably vote for him in Utah
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2016, 10:26:25 am »

I'd probably vote for him in Utah

Traitor.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2016, 10:35:25 am »

So should Trump run negative ads against McMullin?  Or is that stupid because it just raises his profile even more?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2016, 10:37:55 am »

So should Trump run negative ads against McMullin?  Or is that stupid because it just raises his profile even more?

Moreover, does he even have the money to bother running ads in UT? He's pulled out of VA. If he did, though, it would be a boon for McMullin for sure.
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