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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  UT: Rasmussen:Trump +1 over McMullin
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Author Topic: UT: Rasmussen:Trump +1 over McMullin  (Read 3647 times)
ProudModerate2
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2016, 10:38:10 am »

Wow!  It looks like UT really could go to any of the three.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2016, 10:39:18 am »

So should Trump run negative ads against McMullin?  Or is that stupid because it just raises his profile even more?


Other question is does the Clinton camp make a play here or maybe even give support to McMullin?
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2016, 11:02:13 am »

So should Trump run negative ads against McMullin?  Or is that stupid because it just raises his profile even more?


Other question is does the Clinton camp make a play here or maybe even give support to McMullin?

The "play" I'd try to make is to GOTV since if McMullin can pull more Trump support she has a chance to win it with say 30% of the vote or so. Or maybe run a negative ad or so against Trump to just tank him in general, don't even say "vote for Clinton".
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yeah_93
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2016, 11:29:15 am »

Suddenly everyone trusts Rasmussen here? How convenient.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2016, 11:30:41 am »

Suddenly everyone trusts Rasmussen here? How convenient.

Its another poll showing this race close more than anything.
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Vosem
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2016, 11:34:29 am »

Suddenly everyone trusts Rasmussen here? How convenient.

Considering Rasmussen normally has a noted pro-Trump house effect, a poll from Rasmussen showing Trump weak is indeed a noteworthy survey.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2016, 11:36:17 am »

This goes along with other polls, isn't the CBS poll kind of screwy with 3rd party candidates?
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Zioneer
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« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2016, 11:37:43 am »

We had Dixiecrats, what should McMullin's supporters be called.

Mormoncans?

Mormonpublican? Mormocrat?

Side note, the early 1830s and 40s Mormons called the politicians and militias against them "mobocrats".

And yeah, considering this is Rasmussen, I imagine the Clinton/McMullin numbers could be even higher. A dead heat is still pretty impressive though.
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2016, 11:43:23 am »

I would vote for McMullin if I lived in Utah
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2016, 11:46:34 am »

We had Dixiecrats, what should McMullin's supporters be called.

Mormoncans?

Mormonpublican? Mormocrat?

Side note, the early 1830s and 40s Mormons called the politicians and militias against them "mobocrats".

And yeah, considering this is Rasmussen, I imagine the Clinton/McMullin numbers could be even higher. A dead heat is still pretty impressive though.

Out of curiosity, are in Utah, as your profile says?  Can you give us any "on the ground" insight into McMentum?  Is McMullin getting covered on local news, and does he have a lot of yard signs and so forth?
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EliteLX
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« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2016, 11:51:20 am »

And McMullin still has under 50% name recognition state wide..

he very, very easily could win this state in the next three weeks.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2016, 11:54:58 am »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 11:57:10 am by GeorgiaModerate »

Suddenly everyone trusts Rasmussen here? How convenient.

Considering Rasmussen normally has a noted pro-Trump house effect, a poll from Rasmussen showing Trump weak is indeed a noteworthy survey.

They do have an R lean, but that's based on two-way polling data.  I'd be very hesitant to assume that it necessarily applies in a close three-way race.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2016, 11:56:34 am »

So should Trump run negative ads against McMullin?  Or is that stupid because it just raises his profile even more?

What would he say? That McMullin has no experience with elected office?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2016, 12:00:43 pm »

maybe the mccaskill strategy? dems campaigning against mcmullen?
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Zioneer
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« Reply #39 on: October 17, 2016, 12:06:12 pm »

We had Dixiecrats, what should McMullin's supporters be called.

Mormoncans?

Mormonpublican? Mormocrat?

Side note, the early 1830s and 40s Mormons called the politicians and militias against them "mobocrats".

And yeah, considering this is Rasmussen, I imagine the Clinton/McMullin numbers could be even higher. A dead heat is still pretty impressive though.

Out of curiosity, are in Utah, as your profile says?  Can you give us any "on the ground" insight into McMentum?  Is McMullin getting covered on local news, and does he have a lot of yard signs and so forth?


I do in fact live in Utah, and I am in fact a Democrat, and Mormon as well.

I can't really give too much insight onto the "on the ground" stuff, as I'm not involved with McMullin's campaign, or really any campaign at the moment.

Here's what I can say: the majority of Utahs despise both Trump and Clinton, and don't really see anything to admire in Gary Johnson either, though they don't hate him as much. But with two and a half hated candidates, Utah became fertile ground for someone who isn't any of those candidates.

Enter Evan McMullin into the scene. McMullin is heavily promoted by local political-watchers, and he is at first considered a meaningless protest candidate (which, outside of Utah, he is), but he steadily gains support. Eventually these newest polls show he could actually win Utah, albeit with a plurality. The local media goes wild, and there's dozens of articles on McMullin from every newspaper, and McMullin even scores a couple of interviews.

This positive feedback is building up his support even more, as more people learn who McMullin is, and compare him favorably to the two front-runners and the Libertarians (who Utahns aren't really compatible with anyway). McMullin's soft-spoken but firm style, service in the CIA (incidentally, there are a lot of Mormons in the FBI and CIA), and his Mormon faith and values greatly appeal to Utahns, especially considering the two front-runners.

It doesn't hurt that McMullin is mostly campaigning in Mormon-heavy areas in Utah and Idaho. Specifically, in Idaho, he's campaigned in areas with BYU-I students... some of whom are from Utah and vote absentee. So that's even more potential Utah votes.

As for signs, I haven't seen many yet, but he is getting covered in local news extensively.
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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #40 on: October 17, 2016, 12:24:26 pm »

Wow!  It looks like UT really could go to any of the three.
I would expect endorsements to pile on for McMullin after the last debate and mmoreTrump leaks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #41 on: October 17, 2016, 12:36:44 pm »

What positive message could Donald Trump have for Utah?

Grabbing women's crotches isn't a Mormon value. Walking into female changing rooms if one is a man isn't a Mormon value. Involvement with gambling or pornography offends Mormon values.  There could be some very late voting in Utah, and it might not go well for Trump.

First presidential election since 1924  in which some independent or Third Party nominee who is not a racist secession from one of the two main parties wins the electoral votes of a state? That would be rich.

Mormons have a right to their sexual values, and the message might as well be clear: do not expect Mormon votes as a Presidential nominee if you violate those values. In an election that they know will be a Trump loss, they might want to teach us all a valid lesson.   
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Hugo Award nominee
Nathan
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« Reply #42 on: October 17, 2016, 12:41:17 pm »

BASEHEAD DON IS SWEATING LIKE A DOG! Great poll!
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #43 on: October 17, 2016, 12:43:53 pm »

This is very good news for McMullin. Right now, he seems to be gaining support from his rallies and the earlier polls. If the endorsements start flowing in, I'd put Utah down as lean McMullin.

Could Johnson + McMullin give Idaho to Clinton?

Mormons are (at best) a quarter of the electorate in Idaho, as opposed to three-quarters in Utah.  Trump could lose a majority in Utah, but he'd still win the plurality.

That's my thought as well. McMullin will definitely wins some counties in Southeastern Idaho.

This goes along with other polls, isn't the CBS poll kind of screwy with 3rd party candidates?

Yeah. To vote McMullin, Johnson, or Stein, you had to choose other and then those options would be given.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #44 on: October 17, 2016, 01:11:02 pm »

Madison County Idaho, which houses BYU Idaho (BYU-I), will probably vote for McMullin. Several of the southwestern Idaho counties are heavily Mormon (in fact, a couple of our prophets have come from that area), so I imagine McMullin will win those counties as well.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #45 on: October 17, 2016, 01:14:22 pm »

What positive message could Donald Trump have for Utah?

Grabbing women's crotches isn't a Mormon value. Walking into female changing rooms if one is a man isn't a Mormon value. Involvement with gambling or pornography offends Mormon values.  There could be some very late voting in Utah, and it might not go well for Trump.

First presidential election since 1924  in which some independent or Third Party nominee who is not a racist secession from one of the two main parties wins the electoral votes of a state? That would be rich.

Mormons have a right to their sexual values, and the message might as well be clear: do not expect Mormon votes as a Presidential nominee if you violate those values. In an election that they know will be a Trump loss, they might want to teach us all a valid lesson.   
Agree completely. Even if they're more conservative, I still respect Mormons much more than (political) Evangelicals, because they actually try to live up to, and vote according to, their morals and values.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #46 on: October 17, 2016, 01:23:05 pm »

A side number that should be heartening for McMullin: Utahns seem to like the intrigue and attention. 65% now think Utah will be more important electorally than usual this year.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #47 on: October 17, 2016, 01:26:12 pm »

I think this state is now Mcmullin's to lose, with greater local and national coverage from results like this he can parlay being the only pro-life candidate in a conservative Mormon state to a solid plurality
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #48 on: October 17, 2016, 01:28:40 pm »

A side number that should be heartening for McMullin: Utahns seem to like the intrigue and attention. 65% now think Utah will be more important electorally than usual this year.

Considering that any positive fraction is larger than zero, they're right. Wink
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #49 on: October 17, 2016, 01:32:13 pm »

A side number that should be heartening for McMullin: Utahns seem to like the intrigue and attention. 65% now think Utah will be more important electorally than usual this year.

Considering that any positive fraction is larger than zero, they're right. Wink

Not fighting the silliness of the question Smiley But it doesn't hurt for them to be self-aware of the new attention their getting and its implications.
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