How Do States Get Characterized The Minute Polls Close?

[Blackacre]

This has bugged me for a while. Some states are immediately called for one candidate, some get the "too close to call" label, and others are marked as "too early to call" at least on NBC. Why does this happen? What separates a too close state from a too early state, or a too early state from an instant-call state?

[Illiniwek]

Also, I feel like I have noticed that certain states often are "too close" and certain states are often "too early". Is that just a coincidence? Does it have to do with the way polling is done in that state? Is it just because of the size and voting trends in that state?

[LLR]

exit polls

[Blackacre]

Fair, but the Democratic Primary taught us that exit polling isn't the best way to determine who won a state. Not to mention '04...

[Vosem]

"Too early" often refers to states where voting has finished in parts of the state but is still continuing in others. You are correct in that this tends to be the same states over and over; typically, these are the states which stretch across more than one time zone, as frequently voting has finished in the east but is still ongoing in the west. From memory, this is very common in Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida.

Fair, but the Democratic Primary taught us that exit polling isn't the best way to determine who won a state. Not to mention '04...

Typically, if exit polling is both very overwhelming and shows a result that's in concordance with conventional wisdom and earlier public polling, the state can be called for the winner; I can't think of a single time this has been wrong since I've began watching American elections. The error that, while rare, does happen, is error in determining how many votes are left in different parts of the state leading to erroneous early calls (such as, very famously, the Florida presidential race in 2000, or more recently the congressional race in Georgia in 2010 between Sanford Bishop and Mike Keown).

Hope this helps!

[sg0508]

There's 25 or so that get called immediately based upon exit polls, historical voting, etc. 

Some are closer, but get called immediately if there are downballot races where the main race may lead/trail the downballot race exit polls.

Too early usually means voting has not been completed, but one candidate is leading.  Too close means they don't know. 

In 2004, there was criticism that the media was fast to call the Kerry states but slow with the Bush states.

[South Dakota Democrat]

"Too early" often refers to states where voting has finished in parts of the state but is still continuing in others. You are correct in that this tends to be the same states over and over; typically, these are the states which stretch across more than one time zone, as frequently voting has finished in the east but is still ongoing in the west. From memory, this is very common in Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida.

Fair, but the Democratic Primary taught us that exit polling isn't the best way to determine who won a state. Not to mention '04...

Typically, if exit polling is both very overwhelming and shows a result that's in concordance with conventional wisdom and earlier public polling, the state can be called for the winner; I can't think of a single time this has been wrong since I've began watching American elections. The error that, while rare, does happen, is error in determining how many votes are left in different parts of the state leading to erroneous early calls (such as, very famously, the Florida presidential race in 2000, or more recently the congressional race in Georgia in 2010 between Sanford Bishop and Mike Keown).

Hope this helps!

Sorry to bump this thread, but, respectfully, your point about "too early to call" is not true at all.  They wait to characterize a state at all until all the polls have closed, so too early does not mean voting is still going on.  The distinction between too early and too close comes down to margin.  On NBC, if they don't have enough data to indicate who will win a state OR what the margin will be, then it is too early.  If they have some data but can't call the state, but that data points to it being a close margin, they call it too close to call.  

Also, some states get characterized as "too early to call" because they know the margin will not be close, but they don't have an exit poll to go on (exit polls are not conducted in every state), so they have to wait until some of the raw vote comes in.  For example, for Missouri, as well as some of the southern states, that is the case - so one should not be surprised when Alabama is characterized as "too early to call."  The Republican will obviously win, but they didn't do an exit poll so they need some of the raw vote to come in (but not much of it, in such a safe state like that, to make a projection).

Hope this helps.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems look at PA, NH and VA on election night. If those 3 go Dems, its over

[Del Tachi]

"Too early" often refers to states where voting has finished in parts of the state but is still continuing in others. You are correct in that this tends to be the same states over and over; typically, these are the states which stretch across more than one time zone, as frequently voting has finished in the east but is still ongoing in the west. From memory, this is very common in Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida.

Fair, but the Democratic Primary taught us that exit polling isn't the best way to determine who won a state. Not to mention '04...

Typically, if exit polling is both very overwhelming and shows a result that's in concordance with conventional wisdom and earlier public polling, the state can be called for the winner; I can't think of a single time this has been wrong since I've began watching American elections. The error that, while rare, does happen, is error in determining how many votes are left in different parts of the state leading to erroneous early calls (such as, very famously, the Florida presidential race in 2000, or more recently the congressional race in Georgia in 2010 between Sanford Bishop and Mike Keown).

Hope this helps!

Sorry to bump this thread, but, respectfully, your point about "too early to call" is not true at all.  They wait to characterize a state at all until all the polls have closed, so too early does not mean voting is still going on.  The distinction between too early and too close comes down to margin.  On NBC, if they don't have enough data to indicate who will win a state OR what the margin will be, then it is too early.  If they have some data but can't call the state, but that data points to it being a close margin, they call it too close to call. 

Also, some states get characterized as "too early to call" because they know the margin will not be close, but they don't have an exit poll to go on (exit polls are not conducted in every state), so they have to wait until some of the raw vote comes in.  For example, for Missouri, as well as some of the southern states, that is the case - so one should not be surprised when Alabama is characterized as "too early to call."  The Republican will obviously win, but they didn't do an exit poll so they need some of the raw vote to come in (but not much of it, in such a safe state like that, to make a projection).

Hope this helps.

I think it's more than that too.  In 2016, both New Mexico and South Carolina were initially characterized as "too early to call" and then called for Clinton and Trump, respectively, less than an hour later.  These states are at least marginally competitive (in theory), but didn't get a lot of polling/attention during the campaign.  I think the "too early to call" classification is used by the networks to indicate this *very marginal level of competition.  "Too close to call" doesn't work here because, ultimately, the vote margins are unlikely to be close at all.  Plus, if you look up and see "South Carolina:  Too Close to Call" you're going to walk away with the inaccurate perception that Clinton is on her way to a >400 EV landslide win. 

There were plenty of states without exit polling that were called when the polls closed, including Alabama.  I don't think this has to do with exit polling, just the networks covering their butts if things take an unexpected turn on election night. 

[Clarktucky]

I do not know. I have no idea. Sorry.