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Author Topic: NV-CNN: Clinton +2 NC-CNN: Clinton +1 OH-CNN: Trump +4  (Read 2649 times)
BoAtlantis
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« on: October 17, 2016, 11:05:11 am »

https://twitter.com/DavidChalian/status/788047148810199040
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/17/politics/battleground-polls-2016-elections/

NV
Clinton 46
Trump 44
Johnson 7

NC
Clinton 48
Trump 47
Johnson 4

OH
Trump 48
Clinton 44
Johnson 4
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 11:24:39 am by BoAtlantis »Logged
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 11:06:52 am »

I'll take it. Remember when Trump was leading by 7 in NV lol.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 11:07:22 am »

I'll take it. Remember when Trump was leading by 7 in NV lol.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 11:07:43 am »

lmao CNN is shilling so hard for a horse race
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fuck nazis
Gustaf
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 11:07:53 am »

Trump +4 in Ohio, lol.
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Economic score: +0.9
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Arch
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 11:08:21 am »

Margins relative to previous polls, if any?
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 11:09:08 am »

CNN has had a Trump lean all cycle...I wonder if the cross tabs will be wonky, like N/A for under 45, under-represent Blacks and Hispanics for Hillary, etc...throw it in the aggregate
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Elizabeth Warren 2020
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 11:09:17 am »

All numbers seem legit. I'm sure Hillary will carry NV barring collapse. NC is going to come down the wire, have to hope Johnson voters don't switch to Trump, which seems unlikely at this point. Trump will win OH.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 11:10:36 am »

Margins relative to previous polls, if any?

Ohio was Trump +5 for CNN in mid-September. North Carolina was tied according to them in mid-late August. So improvement for Clinton by 1% in both of those cases.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2016, 11:11:13 am »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/788049242833162241
Among registered voters

NC Clinton +5
NV Clinton +7

Nate Cohn thinks these are too Trump friendly.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2016, 11:11:34 am »

Cortez-Mastro leads by seven in NV!!! RIP, Safe D
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fuck nazis
Illiniwek
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2016, 11:12:06 am »

I hate ohio, but I really don't want to think that the state is so deplorable that it will swing for trump.

Cortez-Mastro leads by seven in NV!!! RIP, Safe D

No way, wow!
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Elizabeth Warren 2020
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2016, 11:12:40 am »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/788049242833162241
Among registered voters

NC Clinton +5
NV Clinton +7

Nate Cohn thinks these are too Trump friendly.

Hillary has typically done better with LV, which is unusual for a Democrat but has been consistent this cycle. That's very strange that there would be that large a difference in Trump's favor.
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2016, 11:12:59 am »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/788049242833162241
Among registered voters

NC Clinton +5
NV Clinton +7

Nate Cohn thinks these are too Trump friendly.

Even with a Trump bias, she's still ahead in NC and NV, excellent news. Also, those senate numbers!
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ReapSow
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2016, 11:13:11 am »

« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 11:30:24 am by ReapSow »Logged

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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2016, 11:13:34 am »

Clinton gained 1 point in Ohio
Clinton gained 1 point in North Carolina

First time this cycle polling Nevada
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2016, 11:15:16 am »

Even Nate Silver said there's a R house effect here:

Quote
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538  16s
17 seconds ago
 
People really need to check on house effects when comparing polls. For instance, CNN polls have had a 2-3 point Trump lean so far this year.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 11:16:38 am »

OH has a weird gender gap: Trump leads men by 13 points, but trails Clinton only 3 (!) with women.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2016, 11:16:42 am »

Sad to say but I think any chances for OH and IA are gone for Hillary . To give you a perspective, CNN had +3 for Obama in OH in 2012. (Which was right on the dot)

If there is any poll that is an indicator for OH, it's CNN.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2016, 11:16:52 am »

CNN polls are junk.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2016, 11:17:11 am »

CNN polls are junk.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2016, 11:18:00 am »

Guys, I'm seeing all NA's for the age demographics under 50 on the OH poll...
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darthpi
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2016, 11:18:07 am »

OH has a weird gender gap: Trump leads men by 13 points, but trails Clinton only 3 (!) with women.

Yeah, that's an absurd split. Throw the poll in the averages, but only to offset that Clinton +9 poll from the other day.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2016, 11:18:13 am »

Nate Silver whacked 5 points off Trump's margin in the last CNN poll in Ohio.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2016, 11:18:54 am »

Quote
College educated whites in Nevada and North Carolina break sharply in Clinton's favor, 49% Clinton to 41% Trump in Nevada and 59% Clinton to 37% Trump in North Carolina. They tilt more narrowly toward Clinton in Ohio, 48% Clinton to 44% Trump. In all three states, college-educated whites backed Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012, by wide margins.

There is no way that Clinton wins college educated whites in NC by 12% and loses the state.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
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