Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2019, 05:27:22 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way)  (Read 1725 times)
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,500



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2016, 05:58:32 pm »

Quote
John PodhoretzVerified account
‏@jpodhoretz
If RCP dropped the LA Times tracker Hillary would be nearing a 9 pt lead

https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/788151886755004416
Logged
mark_twain
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 374
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2016, 06:05:48 pm »


Great poll!

This is 5 points better than the previous CBS poll from 9/28 to 10/2.

Logged
iBizzBee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,223
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -3.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2016, 06:08:55 pm »

To put this into perspective, the same poll was showing Obama + 2 at this point in 2012.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,365


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2016, 06:29:40 pm »

To put this into perspective, the same poll was showing Obama + 2 at this point in 2012.

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,608
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2016, 06:35:22 pm »

To put this into perspective, the same poll was showing Obama + 2 at this point in 2012.

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Well f**k me sideways !
Are you serious ? !
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,365


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2016, 06:40:57 pm »

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,723
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2016, 06:43:13 pm »

ABC/Washington Post is apparently an outlier.
Logged
Illiniwek
Governor Illiniwek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,322


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2016, 06:49:06 pm »

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8


Dear God yes!
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,198
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2016, 06:49:23 pm »

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8


Lordy lordy....I felt so confident going into election night '12, too, and yet nothign can shake the small voice this year. I guess it's the stakes.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,443


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2016, 06:52:24 pm »

Remember that it took Sandy to give Obama a boost later in October.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,608
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2016, 06:56:27 pm »

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 07:09:54 pm by ProudModerate2 »Logged
Likely Voter
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,365


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2016, 07:15:10 pm »

Remember that it took Sandy to give Obama a boost later in October.

There were six polling firms that did polls after Sandy that also did polls in mid to late October (before Sandy). The avg before Sandy in those polls was 0.3 and after Sandy was 1.3. So Obama appears to have got a small bump, but some of those polls were also done before and after the 3rd debate (in which Obama was declared the winner in polls).

Basically from the time of the first debate in 2012 the race was pretty close to a tie all the way until election day.

Except for the week of the RNC and a couple of weeks around her Sept. 11 stumble, Clinton's margin over Trump has been greater than Obama's margin over Romney all Summer and into the Fall and that difference is only getting bigger.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2016, 07:20:16 pm »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Logged
Devout Centrist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,358
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2016, 07:21:21 pm »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Well you had solid state polling to back it up.
Logged
chrisras
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 78
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 17, 2016, 07:28:52 pm »

I am feeling much much better today.  This is more what I expected after news broke of Trump's Taxes, Debates, Miss Universe, Pussygate, and Groping Gate.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,365


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: October 17, 2016, 07:37:52 pm »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Well you had solid state polling to back it up.

Yes and no. This is from 538 on Oct. 31, 2012.

Img



Most (myself included) assumed Obama's 'firewall' was WI, PA, IA, NV and OH.  As it turned out both OH and PA were more R than anyone realized, with OH actually being more R than the national avg so it was not actually in the firewall (you could argue that VA and CO were but they were right on the cusp of the natl avg).  If Romney did actually pull close to a tie he could have won with FL/OH/VA/CO (which was his narrow path strategy in terms of spending).  
 
Logged
#WalkAwayFromDesantis
Zyzz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,235


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: October 17, 2016, 07:43:55 pm »

This is a BLOWOUT folks! Looks like it will be such a ass kicking, that I won't even need have Acorn bus me in to the US and vote 5 times with other illegal Canadian immigrants.
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,612
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: October 17, 2016, 07:44:55 pm »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.

The poll leads were small but consistent.  I remember having to calm my mother down all night because she didn't understand that rural votes report first.  My status that day was the exact map and I was very confident.  If the polls are anywhere close to this on the morning of Nov. 8, the bubbly will be on ice by 5pm.
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,612
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: October 17, 2016, 07:49:32 pm »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Well you had solid state polling to back it up.

Yes and no. This is from 538 on Oct. 31, 2012.

Img



Most (myself included) assumed Obama's 'firewall' was WI, PA, IA, NV and OH.  As it turned out both OH and PA were more R than anyone realized, with OH actually being more R than the national avg so it was not actually in the firewall (you could argue that VA and CO were but they were right on the cusp of the natl avg).  If Romney did actually pull close to a tie he could have won with FL/OH/VA/CO (which was his narrow path strategy in terms of spending).  
 

PA was still more Dem than the nation.  VA was actually the last cog in the firewall as the state that was closest to the national margin.  FL and OH turned out to be some sweet, sweet icing.
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: October 17, 2016, 07:51:12 pm »

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)


ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.

In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.

I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,612
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: October 17, 2016, 07:56:08 pm »

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)


ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.

In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.

I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.

If that is their model, and they are engaging in muh unskewin', then they are wrong and learned nothing from 2012 and Rasmussen's/Dick Morris' debacle.  If that's just what their survey showed, then its just an outlier because NOBODY is showing an advantage of only 2 for the Dems. 
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,972
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: October 17, 2016, 08:15:48 pm »

This is a BLOWOUT folks! Looks like it will be such a ass kicking, that I won't even need have Acorn bus me in to the US and vote 5 times with other illegal Canadian immigrants.

Please still do it though, just to be sure.
Logged
mark_twain
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 374
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: October 17, 2016, 09:47:07 pm »


These great polls for Clinton today may have the effect of encouraging more of her supporters to vote this time, not only for the Presidential race itself, but for her allies running for Congress.

It's always a great feeling to be on the winning side, and even greater when you know that you are going to win...

Logged
iBizzBee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,223
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -3.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: October 17, 2016, 09:51:40 pm »


These great polls for Clinton today may have the effect of encouraging more of her supporters to vote this time, not only for the Presidential race itself, but for her allies running for Congress.

It's always a great feeling to be on the winning side, and even greater when you know that you are going to win...



That's extremely dangerous talk right there.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout


Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies
 

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines