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Author Topic: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate  (Read 1381 times)
Interlocutor
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« on: October 17, 2016, 03:54:47 pm »

Quote
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 California adults between Thursday and Saturday. All interviews were conducted after the second 2016 presidential debate on Oct. 9. Of the adults, 820 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 725 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the presidential election or certain to do so before polls close on Nov. 8.


October 13-15 (Last poll, September 27-28)

Hillary Clinton: 56% (-3)
Donald Trump: 30% (-3)
Gary Johnson: 4% (+1)
Jill Stein: 2%
Undecided: 7% (+4)


http://abc7.com/politics/prop-56-raising-cigarette-tax-favored-to-pass-surveyusa-poll-shows/1559346/   (No crosstabs yet)
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 03:57:18 pm by Interlocutor »Logged
psychprofessor
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 04:04:45 pm »

California will come in right around a 30 point margin for Clinton - netting her about 3.5 million more votes from this one state :-)
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 04:07:17 pm »

California will come in right around a 30 point margin for Clinton - netting her about 3.5 million more votes from this one state :-)

So much freedom
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 04:07:55 pm »

Let's hope that Clinton's coattails are enough to send Issa back to the street stealing cars.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 04:07:58 pm »

It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 04:09:38 pm »

It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.
California's always been more supportive of the death penalty, mainly because of the higher crime rate.
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 04:12:03 pm »

I absolutely LOVE that Prop 56 looks like it is going to pass especially when you consider the amount of money pouring into the state from Philip Morris and their ilk.

I feel Hillary will be above 60% once we vote, but I would love to get above 65%...we've only hit that mark twice: Harding in 1920 (66.2%) and FDR in 1936 (66.95%).
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 04:33:02 pm »

I absolutely LOVE that Prop 56 looks like it is going to pass especially when you consider the amount of money pouring into the state from Philip Morris and their ilk.

I feel Hillary will be above 60% once we vote, but I would love to get above 65%...we've only hit that mark twice: Harding in 1920 (66.2%) and FDR in 1936 (66.95%).

She would need a surge of Hispanics - which isn't out of the question but would be difficult. I want to see Issa defeated on election night for sure.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 04:43:42 pm »

if anyone wonders about california....

look with which kind of flyer darrel issa is campaigning right now:

Img


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2016, 04:45:29 pm »

She would need a surge of Hispanics - which isn't out of the question but would be difficult. I want to see Issa defeated on election night for sure.

I live in the 45th district, but I'm less than a mile away from the district line with the 49th and it absolutely kills me that I cannot vote against Issa. I have definitely been urging everyone I know over there to vote for Applegate...I'm hoping for the best in that district, but knowing the area, I am not all too confident.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2016, 04:49:39 pm »

if anyone wonders about california....

look with which kind of flyer darrel issa is campaigning right now:

Img


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr

The fact that he has yard signs & TV ads is telling in itself. This is just the icing on the cake
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2016, 04:52:34 pm »

if anyone wonders about california....

look with which kind of flyer darrel issa is campaigning right now:

Img


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr

ahahahahahaha

R.I.P. Darrell Issa, fake Obama republican, HP

he may lose by double digits at this rate
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2016, 04:53:48 pm »

Home come Issa's race is so close this year?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2016, 04:54:21 pm »

Home come Issa's race is so close this year?

to answer that i linked this HP article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr
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Ebowed
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2016, 05:01:17 pm »

It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.
California's always been more supportive of the death penalty, mainly because of the higher crime rate.

Well, given that places with capital punishment tend to have higher rates of crime since the death penalty has a reverse deterrent effect, that's a bit circular.

Advocates will just have to keep trying until California gets it right.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2016, 05:05:04 pm »

Home come Issa's race is so close this year?

Combination of factors:

1. Lots of College-educated voters in this district, one of Trump's worst demographics
2. Issa is one of Trump's biggest supporters in Congress
3. Most of the district is in north San Diego County. Republicans have a registration advantage there, but it isn't as solid as previous elections
4. Related to #3, 'County Club Republicans' are gradually being replaced by a younger & more diverse population
5. Formidable Democratic opponent, an Iraq War vet in a district with a major Marine base
6. DCCC started pouring money earlier this month & running TV ads against Issa
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 07:09:41 pm by Interlocutor »Logged
Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2016, 05:07:33 pm »

Plus no republican is running for Senate this year, this dampening turnout among Cali republicans significantly.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 05:27:12 pm »

California is a demographic nightmare for Trump. He's going to get pummeled real good here.
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2016, 05:34:11 pm »

Just a reminder. Wink

Quote
Trump in San Jose, California, June 2, 2016: "Iím not even talking about landslides, but I think we can win the state of California and win it pretty substantially. Now, Iíve been told by all these geniuses, all these brilliant guys ó they all say you canít win the state of California. I think we can.Ē
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voter1993
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2016, 05:45:54 pm »

This is why national polls don't matter because ny and california will vote big for clinton. I can't wait for the deportations.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2016, 05:52:21 pm »

It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.

Remember that the 2012 abolition initiative came a lot closer than anyone expected it to, and polling for ballot measures might be unreliable in general. I don't think it will pass, but it's far from impossible.
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2016, 05:56:14 pm »

This is why national polls don't matter because ny and california will vote big for clinton. I can't wait for the deportations.

Enjoy extinction.
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Holmes
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2016, 08:15:32 pm »

She'll win by a healthy 30 point margin.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2016, 09:03:38 pm »

New Poll: California President by Survey USA on 2016-10-15

Summary: D: 56%, R: 30%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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