CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way)
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  CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way)
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Author Topic: CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way)  (Read 2265 times)
Fargobison
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2016, 05:58:32 PM »

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https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/788151886755004416
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mark_twain
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2016, 06:05:48 PM »


Great poll!

This is 5 points better than the previous CBS poll from 9/28 to 10/2.

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iBizzBee
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2016, 06:08:55 PM »

To put this into perspective, the same poll was showing Obama + 2 at this point in 2012.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2016, 06:29:40 PM »

To put this into perspective, the same poll was showing Obama + 2 at this point in 2012.

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2016, 06:35:22 PM »

To put this into perspective, the same poll was showing Obama + 2 at this point in 2012.

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Well f**k me sideways !
Are you serious ? !
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2016, 06:40:57 PM »

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8
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Ebsy
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« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2016, 06:43:13 PM »

ABC/Washington Post is apparently an outlier.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2016, 06:49:06 PM »

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8


Dear God yes!
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2016, 06:49:23 PM »

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8


Lordy lordy....I felt so confident going into election night '12, too, and yet nothign can shake the small voice this year. I guess it's the stakes.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2016, 06:52:24 PM »

Remember that it took Sandy to give Obama a boost later in October.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2016, 06:56:27 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 07:09:54 PM by ProudModerate2 »

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2016, 07:15:10 PM »

Remember that it took Sandy to give Obama a boost later in October.

There were six polling firms that did polls after Sandy that also did polls in mid to late October (before Sandy). The avg before Sandy in those polls was 0.3 and after Sandy was 1.3. So Obama appears to have got a small bump, but some of those polls were also done before and after the 3rd debate (in which Obama was declared the winner in polls).

Basically from the time of the first debate in 2012 the race was pretty close to a tie all the way until election day.

Except for the week of the RNC and a couple of weeks around her Sept. 11 stumble, Clinton's margin over Trump has been greater than Obama's margin over Romney all Summer and into the Fall and that difference is only getting bigger.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2016, 07:20:16 PM »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2016, 07:21:21 PM »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Well you had solid state polling to back it up.
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chrisras
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« Reply #39 on: October 17, 2016, 07:28:52 PM »

I am feeling much much better today.  This is more what I expected after news broke of Trump's Taxes, Debates, Miss Universe, Pussygate, and Groping Gate.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #40 on: October 17, 2016, 07:37:52 PM »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Well you had solid state polling to back it up.

Yes and no. This is from 538 on Oct. 31, 2012.




Most (myself included) assumed Obama's 'firewall' was WI, PA, IA, NV and OH.  As it turned out both OH and PA were more R than anyone realized, with OH actually being more R than the national avg so it was not actually in the firewall (you could argue that VA and CO were but they were right on the cusp of the natl avg).  If Romney did actually pull close to a tie he could have won with FL/OH/VA/CO (which was his narrow path strategy in terms of spending).  
 
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Zyzz
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« Reply #41 on: October 17, 2016, 07:43:55 PM »

This is a BLOWOUT folks! Looks like it will be such a ass kicking, that I won't even need have Acorn bus me in to the US and vote 5 times with other illegal Canadian immigrants.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #42 on: October 17, 2016, 07:44:55 PM »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.

The poll leads were small but consistent.  I remember having to calm my mother down all night because she didn't understand that rural votes report first.  My status that day was the exact map and I was very confident.  If the polls are anywhere close to this on the morning of Nov. 8, the bubbly will be on ice by 5pm.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #43 on: October 17, 2016, 07:49:32 PM »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Well you had solid state polling to back it up.

Yes and no. This is from 538 on Oct. 31, 2012.




Most (myself included) assumed Obama's 'firewall' was WI, PA, IA, NV and OH.  As it turned out both OH and PA were more R than anyone realized, with OH actually being more R than the national avg so it was not actually in the firewall (you could argue that VA and CO were but they were right on the cusp of the natl avg).  If Romney did actually pull close to a tie he could have won with FL/OH/VA/CO (which was his narrow path strategy in terms of spending).  
 

PA was still more Dem than the nation.  VA was actually the last cog in the firewall as the state that was closest to the national margin.  FL and OH turned out to be some sweet, sweet icing.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #44 on: October 17, 2016, 07:51:12 PM »

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)


ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.

In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.

I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.
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« Reply #45 on: October 17, 2016, 07:56:08 PM »

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)


ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.

In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.

I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.

If that is their model, and they are engaging in muh unskewin', then they are wrong and learned nothing from 2012 and Rasmussen's/Dick Morris' debacle.  If that's just what their survey showed, then its just an outlier because NOBODY is showing an advantage of only 2 for the Dems. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #46 on: October 17, 2016, 08:15:48 PM »

This is a BLOWOUT folks! Looks like it will be such a ass kicking, that I won't even need have Acorn bus me in to the US and vote 5 times with other illegal Canadian immigrants.

Please still do it though, just to be sure.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #47 on: October 17, 2016, 09:47:07 PM »


These great polls for Clinton today may have the effect of encouraging more of her supporters to vote this time, not only for the Presidential race itself, but for her allies running for Congress.

It's always a great feeling to be on the winning side, and even greater when you know that you are going to win...

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iBizzBee
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« Reply #48 on: October 17, 2016, 09:51:40 PM »


These great polls for Clinton today may have the effect of encouraging more of her supporters to vote this time, not only for the Presidential race itself, but for her allies running for Congress.

It's always a great feeling to be on the winning side, and even greater when you know that you are going to win...



That's extremely dangerous talk right there.
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