CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way) (user search)
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  CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way) (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS Newspoll - National: Hillary + 9 (4-way)/+11 (2-way)  (Read 2270 times)
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« on: October 17, 2016, 05:49:46 PM »

BEAUTIFUL!!!

Almost time to put this monster to bed.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 07:44:55 PM »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.

The poll leads were small but consistent.  I remember having to calm my mother down all night because she didn't understand that rural votes report first.  My status that day was the exact map and I was very confident.  If the polls are anywhere close to this on the morning of Nov. 8, the bubbly will be on ice by 5pm.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 07:49:32 PM »

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.
Well you had solid state polling to back it up.

Yes and no. This is from 538 on Oct. 31, 2012.




Most (myself included) assumed Obama's 'firewall' was WI, PA, IA, NV and OH.  As it turned out both OH and PA were more R than anyone realized, with OH actually being more R than the national avg so it was not actually in the firewall (you could argue that VA and CO were but they were right on the cusp of the natl avg).  If Romney did actually pull close to a tie he could have won with FL/OH/VA/CO (which was his narrow path strategy in terms of spending).  
 

PA was still more Dem than the nation.  VA was actually the last cog in the firewall as the state that was closest to the national margin.  FL and OH turned out to be some sweet, sweet icing.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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Posts: 11,376
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 07:56:08 PM »

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)


ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.

In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.

I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.

If that is their model, and they are engaging in muh unskewin', then they are wrong and learned nothing from 2012 and Rasmussen's/Dick Morris' debacle.  If that's just what their survey showed, then its just an outlier because NOBODY is showing an advantage of only 2 for the Dems. 
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