Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0
Dem margin in mid-October
Poll '12 '16
FOX -1 8
CBS 2 11
NBC 0 10
ABC 3 4
Monmouth -1 12
FOX -1 8
Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)
ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.
In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.
I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.
If that is their model, and they are engaging in muh unskewin', then they are wrong and learned nothing from 2012 and Rasmussen's/Dick Morris' debacle. If that's just what their survey showed, then its just an outlier because NOBODY is showing an advantage of only 2 for the Dems.