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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-FL/OH/CO/PA: Rubio +2, Portman +13, Bennet +18, Toomey +4  (Read 1384 times)
Castro
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« on: October 18, 2016, 11:02:32 am »

Florida
Rubio - 49%
Murphy - 47%

Ohio
Portman - 54%
Strickland - 41%

Colorado
Bennet - 56%
Glenn - 38%

Pennsylvania
Toomey - 49%
McGinty - 45%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2389
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 11:09:43 am »

That's a 4 point improvement for McGinty in PA, 2 point improvement for Murphy in FL, and a 4 point improvement for Portman in OH since the beginning of the month. 9 point improvement for Bennet in CO since the middle of September.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 11:12:41 am by Assemblyman Gass3268 »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 11:12:15 am »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

I really hope Rubio doesn't end up winning by 1-2% ugh
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 11:17:40 am »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

I really hope Rubio doesn't end up winning by 1-2% ugh

Rubio is going to win unless Trump does something to really upend the race.
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2016, 11:18:40 am »

Toomey safer than Rubio?
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2016, 11:20:29 am »

It'll be interesting to see who is right on Florida - the public polls showing Rubio up 2-6 points, or the DSCC internals showing Murphy losing in a landslide.
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2016, 12:34:08 pm »

Can someone explain to me why Cillizza says that this poll confirms his opinion about how Colorado is a missed opportunity for Republicans?
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2016, 12:57:52 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2016, 01:46:51 pm »

This is a four-point shift for McGinty, and it's been the case that polling for that race has been all over the place. It's definitely a toss-up. I want to believe that Florida is within reach, but I'm having a hard time not seeing Flawless Beautiful Marco Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart win relatively easily.
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2016, 02:23:51 pm »

Good poll for Toomey, but obviously not buying that Rubio is in bigger trouble than Toomey.
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2016, 02:25:45 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2016, 02:48:58 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?
The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2016, 04:25:28 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?
The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2016, 04:36:47 pm »

Portman +13 is actually an improvement for Strickland...
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2016, 05:29:06 pm »

Portman +13 is actually an improvement for Strickland...

I have a feeling Portman will win in the high single digits.
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2016, 06:16:58 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?
The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2016, 06:20:41 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?
The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand? Huh
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2016, 06:25:05 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?
The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand? Huh

I was half-joking, but it's more the fact that getting all worried about a poll that has traditionally shown much better results for Toomey throughout the cycle in a race that leans Democratic (albeit only by a little bit) is kinda Talleyrandish Tongue
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 06:57:22 pm »

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?
The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand? Huh

I was half-joking, but it's more the fact that getting all worried about a poll that has traditionally shown much better results for Toomey throughout the cycle in a race that leans Democratic (albeit only by a little bit) is kinda Talleyrandish Tongue

I'm not sure what allows you to say it leans Democratic. Very few recent polls have seen McGinty ahead. Maybe there's something I'm missing, since 538 seems to agree with you, but I'd like to understand what it is.
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 07:45:27 pm »

Weird poll. Toomey safer than Rubio? Color me skeptical. It means he'd be overperforming Trump by, like, 10?
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2016, 11:01:26 am »

New Poll: Florida Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2016, 11:02:25 am »

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 41%, R: 54%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2016, 11:03:23 am »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 56%, R: 38%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2016, 11:04:08 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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