Quinnipiac-FL/OH/CO/PA: Rubio +2, Portman +13, Bennet +18, Toomey +4

[The Other Castro]

Florida
Rubio - 49%
Murphy - 47%

Ohio
Portman - 54%
Strickland - 41%

Colorado
Bennet - 56%
Glenn - 38%

Pennsylvania
Toomey - 49%
McGinty - 45%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2389

[Gass3268]

That's a 4 point improvement for McGinty in PA, 2 point improvement for Murphy in FL, and a 4 point improvement for Portman in OH since the beginning of the month. 9 point improvement for Bennet in CO since the middle of September.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

I really hope Rubio doesn't end up winning by 1-2% ugh

[Fargobison]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

I really hope Rubio doesn't end up winning by 1-2% ugh

Rubio is going to win unless Trump does something to really upend the race.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Toomey safer than Rubio?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It'll be interesting to see who is right on Florida - the public polls showing Rubio up 2-6 points, or the DSCC internals showing Murphy losing in a landslide.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Can someone explain to me why Cillizza says that this poll confirms his opinion about how Colorado is a missed opportunity for Republicans?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

[Xing]

This is a four-point shift for McGinty, and it's been the case that polling for that race has been all over the place. It's definitely a toss-up. I want to believe that Florida is within reach, but I'm having a hard time not seeing Flawless Beautiful Marco win relatively easily.

[Gass3268]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

[Heisenberg]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

[BuckeyeNut]

Portman +13 is actually an improvement for Strickland...

[Gass3268]

Portman +13 is actually an improvement for Strickland...

I have a feeling Portman will win in the high single digits.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand?

I was half-joking, but it's more the fact that getting all worried about a poll that has traditionally shown much better results for Toomey throughout the cycle in a race that leans Democratic (albeit only by a little bit) is kinda Talleyrandish

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand?

I was half-joking, but it's more the fact that getting all worried about a poll that has traditionally shown much better results for Toomey throughout the cycle in a race that leans Democratic (albeit only by a little bit) is kinda Talleyrandish

I'm not sure what allows you to say it leans Democratic. Very few recent polls have seen McGinty ahead. Maybe there's something I'm missing, since 538 seems to agree with you, but I'd like to understand what it is.

[DavidB.]

Weird poll. Toomey safer than Rubio? Color me skeptical. It means he'd be overperforming Trump by, like, 10?

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Florida Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 41%, R: 54%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 56%, R: 38%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details