Quinnipiac-FL/OH/CO/PA: Rubio +2, Portman +13, Bennet +18, Toomey +4

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Quinnipiac has been one of the best polls for Toomey so that's not a terrible result for McGinty.

Maybe, but it's still bad.

I fear this race is slipping away.

Gaining 4 points over the course of 2 weeks is slipping away?

The one where Toomey was up 8 was probably just an outlier.

Exactly. And the fact that regression to the mean here apparently still results in a Toomey lead is more than a bit concerning.

Talleyrand?  Is that you?

Thinking that a poll that has the Republican leading by 4 points in a critical State is bad news = being like Talleyrand?

I was half-joking, but it's more the fact that getting all worried about a poll that has traditionally shown much better results for Toomey throughout the cycle in a race that leans Democratic (albeit only by a little bit) is kinda Talleyrandish

I'm not sure what allows you to say it leans Democratic. Very few recent polls have seen McGinty ahead. Maybe there's something I'm missing, since 538 seems to agree with you, but I'd like to understand what it is.