Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 19, 2019, 12:12:08 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results  (Read 2846 times)
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,709
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 18, 2016, 12:18:22 pm »



Two way numbers:

Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,949
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 12:19:11 pm »

Is...Texas...really...going...to do it!?
Logged

Sic semper tyrannis.
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,032


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 12:19:48 pm »

LET'S GO TEXAS
Logged

Pandaguineapig
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,274
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 12:21:41 pm »

Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,709
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2016, 12:27:34 pm »

Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada
SurveyMonkey's state polls in the primary were pretty terrible so I expect for these to be as well.
Logged
Kamala/Beto 2020
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,431
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2016, 12:31:11 pm »

If Texas didn't flip in 1996 it's not gonna flip now, we have our own freiwall
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2016, 12:31:37 pm »

Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

IIRC this is a poll that records responses over a month span as well. (Haven't looked at this release.)
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,709
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2016, 12:33:18 pm »

Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

IIRC this is a poll that records responses over a month span as well. (Haven't looked at this release.)
These were conducted October 8-16.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/surveymonkey-15-state-poll/2103/

Not defending them, obviously.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,949
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2016, 12:34:59 pm »

Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada

True. I'm just commenting on Texas being so oddly close to tossup. The whole thing looks like junk though.
Logged

Sic semper tyrannis.
TC 25
Full Member
***
Posts: 132
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2016, 12:40:57 pm »

Looks like junk to me.

If the numbers hold, and Trump were to hold Georgia and pick off one more Clinton state he would win in this model.
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,809


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2016, 12:41:03 pm »

You heard it here first: Nevada to the right of Texas!
Logged

Can we have a real Christian conservative president instead of having our party go down the road of populism and nationalism, with strains of liberal-tarianism?  Let the loss of the House be a lesson that we need to return to the party of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Rick Santorum, and Bill Lee.  We need a bold and optimistic vision for this country that embraces Christian values!

Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,709
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2016, 12:41:54 pm »

Looks like junk to me.

If the numbers hold, and Trump were to hold Georgia and pick off one more Clinton state he would win in this model.
That's a pretty charitable interpretation. Let's not cherrypick junk.
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2016, 12:43:12 pm »

Nate Silver has this pollster as C- for a reason. It's not that good.
Logged
Mallow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 765
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2016, 12:48:37 pm »

To be fair, only TX, GA, and possibly NV look wildly out of line.
Logged

Animation of 1964-2012 presidential margin by state, adjusted by US margin

Oregonian grad student living in PA.

I support both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,474
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2016, 01:08:23 pm »

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster
Mark Blumenthal is on a tweet storm defending the poll. He links to this
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/opinion/campaign-stops/what-are-the-new-battleground-states.html

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,933
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2016, 01:31:17 pm »

So, this is what Hillary could look like even if the race shifts back 3 points and this would be like a 3 point race if they have her up 6 right now-



And if Hillary is and stays 10 up-

This is apparently Hillary's ceiling-


Logged

Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,086
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2016, 01:33:09 pm »

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.

I think that Surveymonkey is trash, but it would be a sign of an incredibly poor pollster if they withheld their results because they were outliers.
Logged

Somewhere in-between moderate conservative and revolutionary communist.



You matter, and never forget that. You are loved.
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2016, 01:35:32 pm »

this is the first trump up in Florida poll for a while, which strikes me as an outlier.
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,999
Germany


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 01:41:48 pm »

Junk, Texas is not more Democratic than Iowa and Ohio. And The Donald is certainly not ahead in Florida right now.
Logged

Pragmatic Democrat. Socially liberal, economically/fiscally moderate.

Favorite president: Lyndon B. Johnson
Best president we never had: Nelson Rockefeller

TL: The liberal Republic

STEVE BULLOCK FOR PRESIDENT 2020!

HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,474
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 01:42:49 pm »

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.

I think that Surveymonkey is trash, but it would be a sign of an incredibly poor pollster if they withheld their results because they were outliers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/09/11/nate-silver-vs-public-policy-polling/
PPP is guilty of this.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/04/polls-2014_n_6268604.html
And in 2014, SurveyMonkey did a alot of unreleased polls and later patted themselves on the back.

I give PPP some slack, since they did predict Hillary's Southern Firewall against Bernie well before anyone else. SurveyMonkey has yet to prove themselves.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 01:43:57 pm »

Junk, Texas is not more Democratic than Iowa and Ohio. And The Donald is certainly not ahead in Florida right now.

Iowa loves a good negging, so I think it could be possible.
Logged
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,564
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 02:48:33 pm »

Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

That's beautiful.

Clinton ahead in Georgia and not Florida? It does seem junky.
Logged

Beto/Duckworth 2020
E: -3.48 S: -7.48
Kempros
Full Member
***
Posts: 117
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2016, 03:13:38 pm »

Might change my vote, I very happy to not live in a battleground state. Political ads from anyone are very obnoxious, especially if they constantly air. No thanks.

Texas will be much closer than 2012 for sure though.
Logged

((̲̅ ̲̅(̲̅C̲̅r̲̅a̲̅y̲̅o̲̅l̲̲̅̅a̲̅( ̲̅((>     ,.-~*`*~-.,.-~*`*~-.,.-~*`*~-.,.-~*`*~-.
Elizabeth Warren 2020
ShadowOfTheWave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,129
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2016, 04:05:17 pm »

Why is this garbage entered into the database?
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,930
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2016, 04:13:24 pm »

Why is this garbage entered into the database?

Because it's not an internal or apparently fraudulent, and the idea we should exclude polls because we think their results are dumb, is unsustainable.
Logged

n/c
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines