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Author Topic: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results  (Read 2906 times)
Ebsy
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« on: October 18, 2016, 12:18:22 pm »

Img


Two way numbers:

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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 12:19:11 pm »

Is...Texas...really...going...to do it!?
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 12:19:48 pm »

LET'S GO TEXAS
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 12:21:41 pm »

Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2016, 12:27:34 pm »

Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada
SurveyMonkey's state polls in the primary were pretty terrible so I expect for these to be as well.
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Bernie 2020
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2016, 12:31:11 pm »

If Texas didn't flip in 1996 it's not gonna flip now, we have our own freiwall
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2016, 12:31:37 pm »

Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

IIRC this is a poll that records responses over a month span as well. (Haven't looked at this release.)
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2016, 12:33:18 pm »

Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

IIRC this is a poll that records responses over a month span as well. (Haven't looked at this release.)
These were conducted October 8-16.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/surveymonkey-15-state-poll/2103/

Not defending them, obviously.
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Arch
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2016, 12:34:59 pm »

Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada

True. I'm just commenting on Texas being so oddly close to tossup. The whole thing looks like junk though.
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TC 25
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2016, 12:40:57 pm »

Looks like junk to me.

If the numbers hold, and Trump were to hold Georgia and pick off one more Clinton state he would win in this model.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2016, 12:41:03 pm »

You heard it here first: Nevada to the right of Texas!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2016, 12:41:54 pm »

Looks like junk to me.

If the numbers hold, and Trump were to hold Georgia and pick off one more Clinton state he would win in this model.
That's a pretty charitable interpretation. Let's not cherrypick junk.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2016, 12:43:12 pm »

Nate Silver has this pollster as C- for a reason. It's not that good.
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Mallow
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2016, 12:48:37 pm »

To be fair, only TX, GA, and possibly NV look wildly out of line.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2016, 01:08:23 pm »

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster
Mark Blumenthal is on a tweet storm defending the poll. He links to this
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/opinion/campaign-stops/what-are-the-new-battleground-states.html

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.
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Snek!
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2016, 01:31:17 pm »

So, this is what Hillary could look like even if the race shifts back 3 points and this would be like a 3 point race if they have her up 6 right now-



And if Hillary is and stays 10 up-

This is apparently Hillary's ceiling-


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Sorenroy
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2016, 01:33:09 pm »

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.

I think that Surveymonkey is trash, but it would be a sign of an incredibly poor pollster if they withheld their results because they were outliers.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2016, 01:35:32 pm »

this is the first trump up in Florida poll for a while, which strikes me as an outlier.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 01:41:48 pm »

Junk, Texas is not more Democratic than Iowa and Ohio. And The Donald is certainly not ahead in Florida right now.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 01:42:49 pm »

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.

I think that Surveymonkey is trash, but it would be a sign of an incredibly poor pollster if they withheld their results because they were outliers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/09/11/nate-silver-vs-public-policy-polling/
PPP is guilty of this.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/04/polls-2014_n_6268604.html
And in 2014, SurveyMonkey did a alot of unreleased polls and later patted themselves on the back.

I give PPP some slack, since they did predict Hillary's Southern Firewall against Bernie well before anyone else. SurveyMonkey has yet to prove themselves.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 01:43:57 pm »

Junk, Texas is not more Democratic than Iowa and Ohio. And The Donald is certainly not ahead in Florida right now.

Iowa loves a good negging, so I think it could be possible.
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BeTo In DiSaRrAy
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 02:48:33 pm »

Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

That's beautiful.

Clinton ahead in Georgia and not Florida? It does seem junky.
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Kempros
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2016, 03:13:38 pm »

Might change my vote, I very happy to not live in a battleground state. Political ads from anyone are very obnoxious, especially if they constantly air. No thanks.

Texas will be much closer than 2012 for sure though.
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Never Beto
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2016, 04:05:17 pm »

Why is this garbage entered into the database?
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Alcon
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2016, 04:13:24 pm »

Why is this garbage entered into the database?

Because it's not an internal or apparently fraudulent, and the idea we should exclude polls because we think their results are dumb, is unsustainable.
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