Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread  (Read 20221 times)
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
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« on: October 18, 2016, 10:01:47 PM »

Since it's a personal curiosity, I submitted a Utah poll that will probably hit the field tomorrow for 330 responses.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 10:21:50 PM »

It's extremely early (and unweighted), but so far the #s I'm getting from Utah are realistic. Afraid that Google's geo guesses for Utah aren't good, though, as my "non-vote" looks like it's gonna be high.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 11:14:02 PM »

I think I made weighting even easier, based off of amdcpus' spreadsheet.  Just see the amdcpus Template revised tab of this spreadsheet.  All the information you need is in the other tabs of that spreadsheet or your survey:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11CzmVw3tIIDCDsIQ0QMlKDq45t6RqpKry8rJLwG_In4/edit?usp=sharing

Awesome, thanks cinyc! I can't wait to see how mine comes out when it's done.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2016, 11:53:09 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2016, 12:05:45 PM by Speed of Sound »

Looks like they're taking a day off on running mine, so I'll drop the current results just for fun. Unweighted, and only containing 57 eligible votes (67 total) so far, here's my UT #'s:

Evan McMullin: 30
Hillary Clinton: 22
Donald Trump: 21
Gary Johnson: 7.5
Other: 4.5
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 04:19:02 PM »

Looks like they're taking a day off on running mine, so I'll drop the current results just for fun.

GCS seems to run their polls in batches, so that you get responses at different times of the day.  The morning Internet audience isn't necessarily the same as the evening or work-time Internet audience.  So it's important not to get all the responses at 6AM, when early risers are answering the polls.

In my and amdcpus' experience, these polls should take 2-3 days to complete.

Yep, since posting that I noticed that my numbers are still trickling upward and your time estimate looks like it'll match mine. Thanks for all your help with this! You two will have single handedly helped create some Atlas-exclusive insight!
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2016, 10:03:11 PM »

It would actually match Romney's # in TN perfectly. Clinton will definitely sure up more than 25, though. Your result is actually probably closer than a lot of the overly close polls safe states often give. Thanks!
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2016, 01:26:14 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 01:45:55 PM by Speed of Sound »

Alright, my poll just got finished for UT! I just got like 15 minutes into trying to weight this...and realized I have no idea what I'm doing. Anyone mind helping me along the way a bit? If there's no interest in weighting it out for me by the end of the day (and I would certainly blame nobody for that), I'll just drop the raw data with my eyeballed weighting opinion.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2016, 03:34:52 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 03:46:31 PM by Speed of Sound »

At last, I can publish the results from the Utah poll I commissioned. Absolutely all of the work that mattered to make this poll relevant was done by cinyc, who properly weighted it, and amdcpus, who set up the original weighting templates. With that said, here we go:

Among 266 UT voters surveyed from Oct. 18-22:

Quote
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Weighted for LVs: Trump +3 (over McMullin)

Trump 31
McMullin 28
Clinton 23
Johnson 8
Other 10

Weighted for RVs: Tie (between Trump and McMullin)

Trump 28
McMullin 28
Clinton 26
Johnson 8
Other 10

Here's the link to the raw data

And here's cinyc's handy work in weighting it out!
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2016, 09:41:50 PM »

Atlas Google Consumer Surveys so far:
StateSponsorMarginWeighted toDates
[/b]
UtahamdcpusTrump +6Likely VotersOct 12-13
South DakotacinycTrump +17Registered VotersOct 15-17
TennseeeExtremeRepublicanTrump+33Weighted;Unclear how?
Idahoanthony1691Trump +23Google Internet Users??
Georgiarafta_raftaTrump +11Unweighted?
UtahSpeed of SoundTrump +3Likely Voters?
AlaskaModerate PennsylvanianTrump+5Likely Voters?
WashingtonAlconClinton +10Likely Voters?

I think I captured them all.  Please help me fill in the question marks.
Thanks! My Utah poll ran from October 19th-22nd.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 11:07:05 AM »

Interesting numbers, cinyc, especially with how close it started. Thanks for much for running this one, especially so close to the election!
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